Lynn has never been a lover of the changeup, and 2019 didn’t change this. The pitch has decent metrics—.257 opponent WOBA and 66 wRC+—but it’s not used as a strikeout pitch, and a 7.1% swinging strike rate suggests it ain’t fooling anyone.
Lynn really should go to his curve a little more often. It generated a 41.9 K% in 2019 and is in its best shape since Lynn entered the league with a low 7.7% HR/FB rate.
Lynn’s four-seamer ranked 4th in SPs in pVal at 25.7 in 2019. It induced a healthy 30.7 Whiff% and hitters only batted .218 against him. One of the main reasons he ranked 7th in MLB in Ks with 246. Lynn is a solid fantasy option for 2020.
With a 5.7 pVAL, Lynn’s hybrid slider-cutter is an effective pitch that helped off-set his elite-level fastball in 2019. It’s not a strikeout pitch—just a 23.3% K rate, which is reasonable but hardly elite—but he uses it to mix things up, and it helps prop up a truly stymying fastball.
Surprisingly, Lynn’s fastball regained a little life in 2018, averaging right around 94 miles per hour with a high of 97. However, hitters hit it very well, posting the highest average against Lynn’s fastball in his career. he may be better off focusing on location instead of blowing hitters away in 2019—as cliched as that sounds.
The sinker was a problem for Lynn in 2018. It’s been off and on every year since 2013. While it still resulted in a ground ball most often, hitters were able to reach base safely on it throughout the season. However, if he maintains the trend that started in 2013, Lynn’s sinker should be good for 2019.
There’s some late, tight action on Lynn’s cut-fastball. It doesn’t move much, but it’s late. He does well enough with it, preventing hitters from hitting it well often. Though they don’t miss it much when they do hack at it.
For the first time since 2014, Lynn went to his hook often. Also, it was the most effective it’s been since he cracked into the bigs—and he knew it. Lynn went to it late in counts with significant frequency and was often rewarded.
Lynn’s changeup isn’t much to write home about. Hitters like it, which is why he doesn’t go to it often. It still results in grounders half the time, but opponents square it up a fair amount, as well.