3.02 ERA. I’m as shocked as you are but after Dylan Bundy’s 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks performance yesterday, he’s holding a 3.02 ERA over his last seven starts. This includes his last two games surviving Arlington and the Astros, while returning a fantastic 1.03 WHIP, 21% strikeout rate, and keeping the ball in the park at a reasonable 12.8% rate. What’s the biggest change? There isn’t one major element that sticks out (it’s still a SIERA well over 4.00, keep in mind), but I would say his slider finding the bottom or under the zone more frequently is a big part of it. Here are his first six starts of the year and here are his last seven. Notice the extra red at the very bottom of the zone and little in the middle? Quality breakers = fewer batter set to launch heaters = a 3.02 ERA. I’m not saying this is the breakout we’ve been waiting for from Bundy, but there could be something here that hangs around a little while longer. Maybe that changeup returns as well (it hasn’t been good in the last three starts sadly) and then we’re really cooking. We’ll see.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Wade Miley – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Miley keeps rolling, now lowering his season ERA to 3.14 like sweet apple pie. Sure, the O’s are bad and feel bad, but that’s no reason to overthink this, just start Miley.
Noah Syndergaard – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Thor is back! This was it! Let’s not get hasty here. It’s wonderful to see 17/98 whiffs as he went four-seamer friendly over sinkers – FINALLY! – and he tossed in more curveballs that worked for 6/13 CSW. That’s all lovely and fine. I hate that his slider is still gone with only four thrown at a low 89.6 mph and how he’s still figuring it out. But who cares? Look at this line! True, you’re still going to start Syndergaard every game he pitches, I just want it all, you know? I can’t raise him much without that slide piece, but I can a little because of the four-seamer emphasis. That is the path to success Thor, you better believe it.
Austin Adams – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. He opened for Wade LeBlanc – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – who is certainly loving this new approach. Let’s see if it still works against the A’s next. Spoiler Alert: It won’t.
Luis Perdomo – 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. Whoa, it’s Perdomo! Wait. Why. *Suit man whispers in my ear*. Ahhhh, the Padres moved Chris Paddack back yet again as their way of limiting his innings slowly. Got it. What about Perdomo? That guy? Everything he did was put in play. Everything? Yes, everything. That’s not what we want.
Chad Green – 2.0 IP, 0 ER ,1 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. The Yanks went full bullpen against the Tribe and it kinda didn’t work as Tommy Kahnle almost blew it. Almost.
Walker Buehler – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I should have just kept you up The List for one more week. Just one more…
Madison Bumgarner – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. You’ve already heard enough about the Muncy longball, I’m amazed that’s all that happened against Bumgarner here as his curveball is still gone and is essentially Fastball / Cutter these days. Just 24/85 CSW but it worked. Apparently. I’m not saying sell high unless you’re getting Top 25 SP value, but Bumgarner is acting like Spider-Man more than a legit #3 SP if you feel me.
Jake Odorizzi – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. You. Can’t. Stop. Him. Odorizzi continues to feast on the Mal Central, here destroying the Tigers with an absurd amount of his fastballs. Seriously, look at this. That’s a whole lot of red up and not much else. And guess what? He gets the Royals next. I need to raise him a little today given how crazy this run is, but I do expect it to come down a little as the year progresses. Not to be droppable, but you’ll consider it at one point. I’ll be here to help when you do.
Stephen Strasburg– 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. You own Strasburg. You start Strasburg. You nod, we nod, just like that.
Kyle Hendricks – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Don’t look now, but it’s a 1.99 ERA with a 20% K-BB rate and 0.82 WHIP across his last eight starts with a 7+ IPS. It’s crazy and wonderful.
Blake Snell – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Just seven Ks today? Step it up, Snell. Enjoy the Gallows Pole at 19 whiffs, even against the Sawx.
Reynaldo Lopez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Ah right. It’s always nice to have a gentle reminder of what ReyLo can do. It’s your team, you can gamble on red if you like, we’ve seen it all from him this year – the nights when it all works, the nights when just one pitch works, and plenty of being lost on the hill – who knows what next week will hold.
Pablo Lopez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Okay, this is better! Low curveballs, low changeups, a lot of fastballs along the edge. Next step is earning a bit higher CSW – 27/90 overall – and we’re golden. GOLDEN! Really nuts to see that PabLo has allowed just 2 ER total in five of his last seven starts. What were the other two? Um. 4 ER and…that 10 ER game. Baseball is super weird y’all. Streaming Record: 45-25. Pirates are next, I’m game there.
Chase Anderson – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. It was Chase’s best start of his short season, taking full advantage of a date with the Pirates. His changeup was the surprise money maker – 6/27 whiffs – and while I don’t think he’s your 12-teamer savior, he gets the Giants next and that seems like a solid stream.
Robbie Ray – 6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. That’s his second straight 1 walk game with 19 Ks to boot. Ray is being the Ray you want him to be.
Frankie Montas – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. The whiffs have returned – 17/96! – as Montas earned 11/20 CSW on sliders alone. Great stuff and I’ll accept the drop in four-seamer usage if his slider and splitter perform this well. Keep on starting him, I don’t anticipate a Top 20 rank at any point this year, but this is lovely SP #3 value.
Glenn Sparkman – 6.2 IP, 2 R, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. As much as I want Mr. Sparkman to be a household name, this just isn’t going to work and you’re making a Grave Mistake if you believe otherwise.
Steven Brault – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Sure, whatever Brault. We are so far away from believing in each other. There’s just no inspiration.
Jose Suarez – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. With Trevor O’Cahill hitting the IL – it is the middle of June after all – Suarez was able to return from the minors early and he did well with the only blemish coming from a Tom Murphy two-run shot. I think there might be something here in deeper leagues, I’m a little skeptical in 12-teamers. I’d wait until after the Rays start next to consider there.
Adam Wainwright – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. So there’s Alex Reyes just twiddling his thumbs. Waiting…waiting…
Sonny Gray – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Just 1 whiff across 37 curveballs + sliders. Yikes. That’s a major step back from the Sonny we’ve seen lately and super annoying. No, it’s not a relapse, it’s just one game. I’m still holding Mr. Sonny Delight as he hosts the Rangers next. That should be plenty better.
Max Fried – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I wanted a little better than a PQS from Fried against the Marlins, but that WHIP and strikeouts are lovely. Wild to see him favor more sliders than curveballs, but he was feeling the former while his hook wasn’t quite right. It hasn’t been for a few starts and there’s another gear to hit still. He took a small hit on The List last week, but don’t be shocked if he jumps back up next week despite a tough matchup against the Phils this week. If he’s doing what he should with his three-pitch mix, it won’t matter.
Aaron Nola – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. A touch of Careful Icarus here as Nola couldn’t escape the seventh frame, but I’m pretty happy with this outing from Nola. Sure, the whiffs weren’t there – 8/104 – but I loved how much he pounded the zone and edges with heat. It was much more in control than in previous outings this year and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s on the path to redemption now. After all, even he recorded just eight whiffs, it was a 34/104 CSW. TWIST! I think this is your last chance to buy low.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. You really want to drop The Uni, don’t you. It’s 4+ ER in three of his last five now (and three of his last seven too!), but this is what you signed up for. He allowed only 3 ER total in his previous two and he’s a Cherry Bomb. And that’s totally fine as you still get something out of most starts – all but one outing has come with at least 5 Ks – and the Rays are a good offense. Keep cool, man. Keep cool.
Drew Smyly – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Is there a way I can replace Drew’s stat lines with the Watchmen symbol? That’s all I want.
Shane Bieber – 1.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Do I think this is regression hitting? Maybe a little, but really it was the fact that he couldn’t execute as he wanted to on curveballs and sliders, allowing Yankee batters to sit on heaters, fastballs that normally would be just fine if it weren’t for the breakers not getting thrown for strikes, and those that were were hung a little and fouled off easily. It just wasn’t right and Bieber showcased himself as the Cherry Bomb he is. It’s unfortunate and hopefully he doesn’t become the Pivetta comparable, but I have no choice but to lower him this week as this floor is showing its face more often than we’d want.
Jeff Hoffman – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. We were hoping that Hoffman could really take advantage of the Mets on the road and…well nah. Sure, the strikeouts are cool but this start has severed our trust that we never even knew we had in the first place.
Clayton Richard – 2.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! It’s almost like having poor mechanics returns poor results.
Ryan Carpenter – 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. As prophecized, the Carpenter’s ratios have risen again.
For those unaware, I’m forced to make my Streamer picks under the condition of sub 20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.
Anibal Sanchez vs. Chicago White Sox – Easy choice here, hopefully you can snag him early for his two-start week.
Dakota Hudson vs. Miami Marlins – Let’s let this ride again as he faces a weak offense in Miami.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Cal Quantrill vs. San Francisco Giants – I kinda loved what Nicoderm did last time out and now he gets the Giants. This could work.
Game of the Day
Chris Sale vs. Mike Minor – We know it shouldn’t happen, but what if Minor outpitches sale? WHAT IF?!
(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
Great as always, Nick.
I’m just here to see what you think about Gallen or Keller potentially getting the calls for this week.
I think we’re going to have to wait on Gallen until the end of June as the Marlins want to be sure he’s past the Super Two.
No idea on Keller, better chance of him getting the call than Gallen, though.
re: Super Two, Yordan Alvarez is undoubtedly past it because Houston is too smart to promote him ahead of it. Isn’t Super Two the same for all teams/players (assuming zero time in the pros e.g. Gallen/Alvarez), and so wouldn’t Gallen be past it by now also?
Why is Alvarez undoubtedly past it?
It is the same for all teams, it’s not assumed to be past now.
Only because I don’t see the Astros making that mistake when they don’t need to. They’re too smart. Plus they activated him for the 3rd game of a series. Just seems so calculated for them to screw it up and cost themselves millions.
Also after looking back a few years at some players who were close (Edwin Diaz was the closest to the lowest number since 2013 which was 2.122 at 2.121, and he started on June 6th, 2016), it does seem Super Two has passed, assuming this year’s number isn’t lower than 2.122.
Clarifying badly worded post: Diaz’s number was 2.121; the lowest number ever is 2.122. So I looked up Diaz’s actual first appearance and it was June 6th.
Great title, Nick. “Not dark yet, but it’s gettin’ there…” Are you starting Wheeler vs. Yanks at the Stadium this week?
That’s a tough one as Mets / Yanks often create a different atmosphere as well.
I think I’m still doing it.
What time is the new pitcher list coming out? Thanks!
I have to record during the day on Mondays, which means it comes out in the late afternoon.
Nick – offense question:
Would you trade Blackmon & Max Kepler or Mallex Smith for Acuna? I have a logjam on offense so trying to clear space.
Yep! I’d go after Acuna.
Nick, is a Syndergaard for Caleb Smith a fair trade in a points league? Caleb’s injury clouds things, but what if both are healthy? Does Noah’s last start propel him ahead of Caleb?
Hey nick, have an offer of Ozzie Albies for my Matt Boyd in a keeper league. I’m inclined to accept (my offense is pretty bad in general, not a big difference in keeper price, and I have strong pitching with bauer, Castillo, Giolito, clevinger, Morton, glasnow). Thoughts?
PabLo has pretty much turfed his two-seamer. This is a top-50 guy.
Hi Nick. Informative article. I read SP Roundup daily. I drafted ERod then dropped him, then added him again and dropped him AGAIN. In 3 of his last 5 starts, he’s given up 4 or more runs. His 80:22 K:BB shows his K potential, but his tendency to give up HRs, his 5.00 ERA and 1.39 WHIP make him quite difficult to roster in my opinion. He’s the Pivetta of the AL.
He Nick, quick question:
Who would you start Dakota vs Miami or Archer vs Braves?? Tnks
I can drop Lyles and pick up PabLo or Matz. Roto redraft. Stick or twist?
That 37 foul balls from Wheeler a few days ago got me thinking, wouldn’t CSW be more accurate if it was the percentage of total balls minus foul balls? It will require a ratio adjustment but if say Pitcher A had 30/100 CSW with 0 foul balls while Player had 25/100 CSW with 40 foul balls then we would like Pitcher B more right? Maybe I don’t know what I am talking about but I would think Player B’s CSW should be considered 25/60
I’ve posted this a few times now and I don’t mean to spam but I am curious as to whether you think I have a point or not.
CSW would be best if we included non-two-strike foul balls, yes! I think that would be a net positive.
It’s actually part of the reason I asked Baseball Savant to add Fouls to their gamefeed last year :)
It’s super annoying to get that data now, so we have to settle for CSW. I’m crossing my fingers that Pitcher List 5.0 will let us get there!
Cool, that makes sense. Thanks for the reply and all your great work. I love reading all your articles. Keep it up please!