Need for Speed: Stolen Base Options to Stream (8/21-8/26)

Adam Howe sheds light on deep stolen base bets based on matchups.

Every stolen base means that much more in this shortened season and odds are it was difficult to prioritize speed in your recent drafts. You either have too much speed or not enough. This series will be focused on the latter. If there’s a category to make up ground in this year, it’ll be stolen bases. The category may be the tightest in every roto league, with just a couple being the difference between the top and bottom of the standings.

Here are a couple of options that may be sitting on your wire that have a good shot at getting you at least one more bag. I’m going for the deep cuts and focusing only on players owned in less than 20% of leagues, per Yahoo. This list will change week to week, but you’ll continue to see a general theme. The picks will be focused not just on the speedsters that are generally undrafted (looking at you, Jarrod Dyson), but mostly on sneaky pickups that can take advantage of their matchups.

One thing to consider here is that these matchups are always subject to change, as most things are nowadays, and most of these suggestions are best served in a league with daily moves. Weekly adds can still be considered in a pretty deep league, but know that this is only focused on the possibility of stealing bases, even at the expense of other categories. So, after that disclaimer, let’s see who’s poised to run over the next few days:

 

Magneuris Sierra & Jon Berti, Miami Marlins:

 

Sierra and Berti were my Honorable Mentions last week and combined to swipe five bags between the two of them between 8/14 and 8/19, so it seems fitting they make the recommendations for this coming weekend. If we have to go with just one, Magneuris is the one trending up as he’s seen an uptick in playing time and received some positive review from manager Don Mattingly recently. The Marlins have a string of games against the Nationals this weekend, including a double header on Saturday. Sierra and Berti should each play in at least one of those games and if either gets the start against Max Scherzer they should have the green light on the base paths to help make something happen for the Miami offense. On Sunday they match up against Anibal Sanchez, who allowed the sixth-most stolen bases of any pitcher in 2019 with 15 on 15 attempts.

 

Mauricio Dubón, San Francisco Giants: 

 

This is just me picking on Arizona, and mostly on Carson Kelly. The Giants meet up with the Diamondbacks this weekend and Dubon should get starts in every match up, albeit at the bottom of the San Francisco order. Dubon has recorded two stolen bases in the last week and should be able to add to the total against an Arizona team that has allowed 22 stolen bases on 25 attempts — second most in the league. Not a slow guy, Dubon currently ranks in the 74th percentile for sprint speed this season and has shown the ability to steal bases in the minors, swiping 54 bags in 279 games between 2017 and 2019.

 

Raimel Tapia & Sam Hilliard, Colorado Rockies: 

 

With David Dahl hitting the IL, Tapia and Hilliard will see an uptick in playing time in the Rockies outfield. Tapia has already been playing every day, starting nine games in a row since August 11th and collecting two stolen bases in that time. Hilliard’s recent playing time has been much more sporadic. He was the one that got plugged in the day David Dahl was scratched, and made the most of this recent start with four hits, including a triple late in the game. Both have speed, ranking in the 90th percentile for sprint speed this season, and have favorable match ups with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks in the coming days. Those teams have allowed 22 stolen bases on 25 attempts through the current season (tied for second-most in the league).

 

Honorable mentions

 

Myles Straw vs Los Angeles Angels (8/24-8/27)

 

Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Michael Packard (@designsbypack on Twitter & IG)

Adam Howe

Adam resides in Indianapolis after spending the better part of a decade in Oakland, CA and growing up in Massachusetts. He spent the 2006 season working with the Dunedin Blue Jays, but stays true to his Red Sox fandom. Follow him on twitter @EightyGrade

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