(Photo by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire)
It’s time to break out the children’s songs to talk about Andrew Heaney who concluded his roller-coaster season with a hint of the possibilities with a brilliant 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks line against the Rangers. Sure, the Rangers are bad against lefties, especially outside of Arlington, but Heaney earned his success with 20 whiffs and 35/100 overall CSW. His changeup was good – not great, but good enough – while his curveball did a ton of damage, mostly hanging at the bottom of the zone. Meanwhile, fastballs sat mostly up with some in the middle and never down. Love it. This isn’t the very best of Heaney (changeup, where you at) but even so, it’s a good taste of what he could be if it all clicks for a season. A near 12% whiff rate that undulated through the season speaks to his 24% K rate for the year while lowering walks to a 6.0% mark. A 3.74 SIERA could suggest better days in 2019 as well, but it really comes down to consistency. He’s had more innings under his belt now, he finished on a strong note, and there’s a chance Heaney is a breakout play in 2019. Don’t draft expecting it, but if his price is cheap in drafts, I’m taking the chance.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Shane Bieber – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Speaking of showcasing ceilings, this is it for Bieber. I’ve said before that I like to see walks from Bieber as it’s an indication that he’s nibbling instead of giving into batters. He needs a better balance and it doesn’t surprise me that his three best starts of the year came in 3 of the 7 starts (of 19!) that had at least two walks. Just saying. I’m not reaching for him in drafts as that fastball is just so dang hittable, but if people are running away from a 4.55 ERA, I’ll take a chance he figures it out. You’ll hear talks about his .356 BABIP falling “a ton” next season and I wouldn’t buy it. Y’all know my thoughts on how BABIP isn’t a pure luck stat and Bieber is an extreme case of hitability.
Jacob deGrom – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. It’s been such a wonderful season, deGrom. I’m glad you went out on such a high note and I can’t wait to put out my article about you next week. Enjoy your final Gallows Pole of the year at 21 whiffs.
German Marquez – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. 41/101 CSW here from Marquez against the Phils. I’ve been making some arguments about how Marquez could be overrated in next year, though I think I really need to sit down and watch more of his games first. I’ll probably put together a piece at some point talking about the changes he made and if I believe them. I’m sure he will be one of the most volatile rankings out there next year. No, I haven’t made a firm decision yet.
Kyle McGowin – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. It was his first career start and he left early with a blister. Bummer. There’s always next year.
Sean Newcomb – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. I had little faith that Newcomb would be able to get it together against the Mets, but even with those four walks, he killed it. I’ve been preaching about how bad his secondary stuff is, so he elected to throw 72% fastballs and it led to 35% CSW. Way to find a way. That’s almost a palindrome. YOU’RE ALMOST A PALINDROME. My name is Bob, I know what I am.
Luis Perdomo – 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Perdomo got the start and gave us a hint of the man we’ve been wanting him to be for so long. A hint, this was nine outs, let’s pull it back a little. He’s a Young Gun and I don’t really expect him to ever take that massive leap, but there’s a chance. There’s always a chance.
Jhoulys Chacin – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. And thus concludes one of the stupidest seasons. Yes, worse stupider than Season 2 of True Detective. 34 starts that returned a 3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 15 Wins to your name. Whoever tells you they expected this is flat out lying. After all, Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it.
Heath Fillmyer – 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks. Just his fifth start of 13 games with more than three strikeouts. His only start more than six. Maybe he figured it out too late. Maybe he just isn’t that good and this was a Birthday Party. I’m thinking the latter.
Jace Fry – 1.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. FALSE START. Yes, even the ChiSox had to get involved.
John Gant – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Ehhhh, it doesn’t really do much. Sure, it helps with the ERA, but Gant didn’t provide a whole lot. He never really does.
Sean Reid-Foley – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. They said Reid-Foley was going to be limited and it’s too bad as he was going off once again. There’s some intrigue here for 2019, though I have my questions about the legitimacy of his strikeouts through a larger sample.
Jimmy Yacabonis – 3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. With a name like that, you expect this exact line. How Jimmy allowed just 1 ER in 3.1 frames and eight baserunners against the Sawx is beyond me. *Suit man whispers in my ear.* ERRORS! They always get ya.
Chris Devenski – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. FALSE START. Devo got the start as the Astros are pulling some strings with their rotation and the playoffs n all. Hope he had a good time.
Zack Greinke – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. I was pushing to draft Greinke in the fifth round this year as your ace and a 3.21 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 24% K rate in 33 starts & 207.2 innings is exactly what we wanted. Solid stuff for a guy in his mid-30s, I wonder if he’ll come at a discount again next season. Not sure I’d buy in fully at his whiff rate draft a tick and a half along with another tick and a half on his velocity, but if the price good enough, count me in.
Casey Kelly – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Kelly, yes that Casey Kelly got the start for the Giants and actually did okay. Good for you fella.
Yohander Mendez – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. On the Eva of Mendez’s last start of the year, we wondered why he wasn’t the star. You are the star, a voice said. The star of the Yo-handers. You’re the only one. Yohander slept well that night. Yes, this is what my brain has come to in conclusion of discussing the Cup of Schmo that is Yohander Mendez. Let’s never speak of it.
Jose Quintana – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I’ll take this. It’s not overly beautiful, but you’re often sweating when sending Quintana out there and this line provides a thick sigh of relief. No, Quintana won’t be Top 30 for me entering next year. That would be wild.
Edwin Jackson – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks. I wondered if I should have pivoted to surviving a night with EJax for the streaming pick, but it didn’t really matter in the end. This will be on of those years where we say “oh yeah, that happened” and move on. Baseball is weird.
David Price – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Price’s Tuesday start got pushed back to Wednesday and he was super blegh against the Orioles. Dude, seriously? I really wanted you to squeeze under a 3.50 ERA after your tumultuous May but fine. I slotted him at #16 in the preseason and encouraged y’all to draft him in the seventh round. I think a 3.58 ERA/1.14 WHIP/24.5% K rate with 16 Wins in 30 starts returned proper value, right?
Cody Reed – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Our Call Boy took a step back like I thought he would last time and it resulted in a start that caused pain. Only pain. Streaming Record: 101-51. Only in the deepest leagues would I chase Reed’s upside next year. Even if he kills it out of the gate, I’d still be skeptical. That’s where we’re at.
Chris Sale – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Even if he gets pulled in the fifth, Sale still gives you eight Ks. That should be it for the year as Sale will go game one of the ALDS and you can expect him to be #2 on The List. Too bad we didn’t see him cap off an unreal year in style over the last month – it cost him a Cy Young – but it was a fun ride.
Ryne Stanek – 1.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. FALSE START. Yonny Chirinos did well for four frames after, but that’s kinda meh.
Ross Stripling – 1.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Ugh. #Dodgeritis is a real thing and prevented Stripling from being any good in September. It’s dumb. Or maybe Stripling isn’t that good. Imagine trying to do your job and your boss suddenly changes your role each day while giving you a clear vibe of distrust. That’s what Stripling has been through. We thought he could push 80+ pitches here but his leash was super short and early trouble spelled a hook in the second. Here’s the hoping he gets the full confidence of the coaching staff next year.
Masahiro Tanaka – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Bleeeeegh. I expected better from Tanaka and I wonder if this changes the Yanks’ plans regarding the Wild Card game. I still feel like Tanaka is better than the 3.75 ERA on the year, as the 1.13 WHIp and 25% K rate are sure to make any owner happy. Just that 17.7% HR/FB is killing things.
Wei-Yin Chen – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Chen was on the road and the book says he’s atrocious on the road and excellent at home. Thanks commenter! (I can’t find your comment right now or I’d give you a proper shoutout, please forgive me!)
Felix Hernandez – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. I wonder what the future holds for Felix. 2019 was a disaster any way you look at it and it must be difficult falling from the elite tier of starters down to the bottom.
Jake Odorizzi – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. Odorizzi got the Tigers and couldn’t do anything with it. A complete Cherry Bomb in its truest sense and y’all know that means I’m out for 2019.
Ryan Meisinger – 0.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. I can’t help but have sympathy for the rookie reliever making his first career start, albeit one that was going to be short before he threw a pitch. I can imagine him being told he’s getting the start and going to his catcher to share the news. “Wait, you can’t be serious.” Hey, I’m just the Meisinger. I’ll be here through the end of the week folks, enjoy the buffet.
Ivan Nova – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Ah yes, the grotesque floor of Nova, floor #13 in most buildings and why they often skip it.
Matt Boyd – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Boyd, nooooooooooo. Fastball was back to 91mph levels and his slider earned just 6/25 CSW to add up to a disappointing start all around. There was a thought that maybe the Royals were actually solid after they hit Boyd last time, but this was Minnesota and maybe it was just Boyd failing to keep it up. It happens.
Nick Pivetta – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Pivetta went to Coors and effectively lowered his draft stock even further for 2019. If we’re hitting ~#50 SP overall territory, count me all in, y’all.
Antonio Senzatela vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Just eight games on Thursday and the options are terrible, so I’ll go with Senz-A as he gets the Phils. Blegh. Don’t do it.
Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins – I thought I’d be safe to go with Jose Urena against the Mets, but he’s done too well and now sits comfortably above the 20% threshold. That leaves Giolito, who hasn’t been too hot, but has had a tough schedule and gets the Rosario-less Twins. Don’t love it, and I don’t like chasing five-and-done Zach Davies so Giolito it is.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Trevor Richards vs. New York Mets – I don’t love the options here and I’ll return to streaming Richards one last time as he looked stellar with his changeup last time out against the Nationals. Not out of the question he has that feel for one more game.
Game of the Day
Gerrit Cole vs. Baltimore Orioles – This could be ridiculously awesome. Or maybe not as he may be pulled slightly early. Playoffs n stuff.
I stopped watching True Detective early in season 2 lol
Not very relevant, but what do you think of Lance Lynn? I always thought he was one of those veteran types that you liked to simply write off (see Teheran, Porcello, etc), but you have been forced to watch Lynn now that he is on the Yanks. Personally, I kind of like watching him pitch as he just refuses to give in with the FB even if it means a bunch of walks. If the command is sharp, then he is still going to walk guys, not because he can’t throw strikes, but he only tries to throw quality strikes. If the command is off (see 2018), the walks come in bunches. Do you think he is worthwhile in 2019? I am on the fence and trying to pin down the value. I know this would be better suited to the Slack channel… yes, I know you changed the platform and I never made it over, but it was just too much of a time sink for me and I consider it a blessing in disguise.
Hey Nick, with my final start available, who would you start?
Jose Urena @ NYM
Kyle Gibson vs CWS
Tyler Glasnow vs Tor
Ryan Borucki @ TB
I think I’m going Gibson there.
Definitely not Borucki. Glasnow if you need to chase strikeouts, Urena for a slightly more conservative floor. Gibson a good balance of both.
Boy oh Boyd, did he stink up the joint…it hurts…
Why do you think Pivetta will be good next year?
I added Lauer for the stream but his start got moved, would you start him against AZ? Thanks