It’s been yet another successful season for Marco Estrada who is now pushing a double digit K/9 following Sunday evening’s 7.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks start against the Orioles. We’re talking a 10.05 mark with a super low 2.30 BB/9 and 3.30 ERA to boot. Those are super studly numbers and I’m sure you didn’t expect Marco freakin’ Estrada to be boasting them. So what changed? Estrada barely touches his Cutter now, a pitch he threw over 600 times last season, in favor of more Four-Seamers, which had their whiff rates spike from a paltry 6.0% in 2016 to 9.7% this season. He’s turning to the pitch with two strikes, allowing him to take advantage of its 33.5% O-Swing rate, where he previous relied on his Curveball against right-handers, which wasn’t all too effective before. Will this whiff rate last through the year? Maybe, maybe not. I’m leaning no and I think Estrada is still a 8.50 K/9 or so arm – which is solid – but not this legit fantasy stud type. However, if he can keep that walk rate down below 2.50 BB/9 for the year, there’s no reason he won’t be Top 30 or even higher.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
Clayton Richard – 9.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. If you want to chase Richard’s 3.97 FIP and 3.49 xFIP, I don’t blame you but I sure wouldn’t. Considering he hold sa 6.46 K/9 and over 30% hard contact, you’re setting yourself up for some bad outings where you have nothing to salvage. Sure, he’ll throw something like this, maybe 7 innings of 1 ER ball and 3 strikeouts, but is that reward worth the risk? I don’t think so.
Stephen Strasburg – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m glad we can now put to rest the “Are you worried about Strasburg’s K rate?” question.
Derek Holland – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Holland, the man who has an 2.47 ERA over 2 points lower than his 4.87 xFIP. You’re getting TEEs’d and this “thing” you guys have isn’t going to end well.
Jaime Garcia – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. In May, Jaime may do this. Is that the best you got? Yes. Yes it is. Also the best Garcia has so don’t do anything I wouldn’t do. Do you real–Yes I realize how silly it was to use that phrase.
Aaron Nola – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. HE’S BACK. It was wonderful, truly. He was spotting heaters on both sides of the plate, throwing his Changeup with confidence, getting Ks with his hook…sigh. I’ve missed you Easy A.
Jake Arrieta – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. And look, Arrieta is back too! I think the biggest takeaway here is the sole walk. Great sign for Arrieta here and let’s hope it translates in future outings as well.
Chad Kuhl – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Kuhl story, bro. Yes, even with a good outing I’m going to dismiss Kuhl that easily.
Brandon McCarthy – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid stuff from McCarthy, glad to see him take advantage of a solid matchup against the Marlins. Too bad he gets the Cubs next.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 8.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. And the parade continues for Erod and his did his business against the Athletics. Will he get a bump this week? Sure will. Am I still concerned about him? Sure am. Can I stop asking questions? Sure thing boss.
Adam Wainwright – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. There’s still a ways to go before I start trusting Waino again.
Wade Miley – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Take a moment and just look at Miley’s strikezone plot from today’s game. How he only had one walk is beyond me.
Chris Archer – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Yeah I know it’s not a good ERA and that WHIP is questionable, but the dude gave you 12 Ks against at Top 5 offense. Be happy.
CC Sabathia – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Nah, I’m not buying this CC, just like I resisted the urge to get a set of Aaron Judge robes. And it came with a free gavel!
Adalberto Mejia – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Mejia is back as the Twins needed another starter and was just as boring as we remember him.
Danny Salazar – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Will the narrative ever change with Salazar? I’m still selling here.
Yu Darvish – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. Darvish, come on man. I thought you were over this whole “I don’t care who I walk” business.
Zack Godley – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Hmmmm, Godley was supposed to do much better than this against the Padres, but it isn’t terrible either. I think this is a tie. Streamer Record 19.5-16-7. Stick with Godley as he has a solid schedule ahead including the Brewers and Pirates.
Jake Junis – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Double-header day for the Royals, so they needed another arm to go and called up Junis for the sole outing. Hope he had a great time, but this is as true of a Cup of Schmo as we’ll ever have. Cherish it.
Kyle Freeland – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Super boring and bleghy start from Freeland. No surprise there.
Vance Worley – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Vance is back and ready to disappoint.
Jesse Chavez – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Blegh, Chavez is far from a good option in 14 teamers or shallower. I understand if you need to run with him in super deep leagues as he has a starting job. Obviously dislike him, though.
Andrew Triggs – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Awwww, I wanted the legend of Triggs to continue even through good offenses like the Red Sox. Too bad he gets the Yankees and Nationals next, which I’m probably benching for both now. So it goes.
Phil Hughes – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. A 2.00 K/BB?! GET IT TOGETHER HUGHES.
Matthew Boyd – 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 12 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. That looks like a man getting Singled Out alright. I’m still Boyd Watching and so should you.
Bronson Arroyo – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. And once against the GQSB 2.0 doesn’t change at all. It’s 4-2 Weaver at the moment, and I’m willing to take side bets on how many more QS get thrown between them before the All-Star break. Three? Four?
Ian Kennedy – 2.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. Kennedy accrued 54 pitches through his first two innings so the Royals wanted to be ultra safe. This is why DLH exists, y’all.
Chase Anderson – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Remember when Chase had a hot start to the year? That was something.
Matt Cain – 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. This is why we don’t believe in Cain’s surprising numbers thus far.
Joe Musgrove – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. There was some hope that after his last two starts allowing 3 ER total Musgrove had turned a corner. Maybe. Guess not…womp womp.
Chris Heston – 3.0 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBS, 2 Ks. Ouch.
Tommy Milone – 1.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. OUCH.
JC Ramirez vs Tampa Bay Rays – He’s been a bit better with his Fastball command and the Rays aren’t scaring me. I’m also a fan of Jeff Hoffman’s spot start against the Phillies if you need another arm.
German Marquez vs Philadelphia Phillies – He’s outside of Coors and has strikeout upside that could be realized. I’d also consider Jordan Montgomery against the Royals, even with his blegh start against them last time out.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Tyler Chatwood vs. Philadelphia Phillies – The Rockies don’t have a bad staff when they pitch outside of Coors, okay?
Game of the Day
Jeff Hoffman vs. Jerad Eickhoff – I want to see if the tale of Hoffman continues against the Phils.
Would you start all two start Duffy/Vargas @ NYY and Clev and JC Ram @ TB and Miami?
Depends on my matchup, if I didn’t need all six starts/I wanted to be a little conservative, I’d start Duffy + JC and sit Vargas.
If I could, I’d just bench Vargas for the NYY start.
This article says you plan to avoid Triggs against the Yankees later this week, while your “starting pitcher matchups” article (maybe written before yesterday’s game?) says he is a “start” for that game. I’m planning my week and having a tough time deciding if he is essentially a streamer for the rest of the season or still deserves a roster spot while I improve my somewhat weak rotation. Nice site…helping me a lot so far.
Well, I think this start against the Red Sox changes things a bit as the matchups articles was written yesterday morning. If I re-did that one, I’d have Triggs listed as a “Maybe”.
I think he is worth a roster spot, just a small bump this week and then back on track.
Glad you like the site!
Nola v Cincy or Gray v Miami
Would you prefer German over Corbin?
Yes, simply because I have more short term conviction in Marquez. With these guys, that’s all that really matters.