Making It Look Rizzi
(Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire)
Jake Odorizzi has put us through the wringer this year, but after last night’s 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks we have some questions to answer. Now that’s a 3.35 ERA and 22.3% K rate and you’re tempted. I get that. Soft contact is also up to an impressive 23.0% mark, making you want to buy in his .246 BABIP just a little bit. Just a littl’ bit, Sarah! Problem is that he’s also sporting a 85.0% LOB rate and 10.4% walk rate, making his 5.07 FIP and 4.67 SIERA way too real. If you’re wondering about his repertoire, no, just three curveballs as Odorizzi did his damage with 7 whiffs via 34 Splitters + Sliders and didn’t get killed with his fastball against the Mariners. Yeah, I’m just not seeing a solid pickup here for a 12-teamer. Sorry Rizzi.
Let’s see how every other SP did Monday:
Andrew Heaney – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. I watched a good amount of this and boy was I impressed by Heaney’s fastball command. There are two traits I look for in left-hander fastballs – being able to bust right-handers inside and pairing it with pitches away in the same at-bat. Heaney did that in the first AB of the game and never looked back. Meanwhile, he got 10 whiffs out of 43 curveballs + changeups and all was right in the world. I talked about Heaney as a guy to pick up after this start since I didn’t want to risk the Astros, but it looks like it may be tougher to snag him up. The one drawback here is the Yankees in two starts (Rays first), but the schedule after is pretty – Tigers and Royals – and I think he’ll be sticking on your team for a good while. I’m loving this.
Wade LeBlanc – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. Alright, I’ll say this. In 12-teamers, you shouldn’t touch LeBlanc. 4.05 SIERA, sub 20% K rate, 85.8% LOB rate, 7.0% HR/FB, 7.5% whiff rate, sub 87mph heater, etc. Everything pointing to a larger regression than that SIERA mark. In deeper leagues, I can fathom LeBlanc riding that command to be a serviceable innings eater. ONLY IN DEEP LEAGUES. Let’s not go crazy here.
Mike Fiers – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Nothing says classic Fiers to me like a 4.50 SIERA and 16.3% K rate. Don’t you dare.
Ryan Yarbrough – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. So Yarbough has transitioned to be a full-on starter now with 83 pitches here and you shouldn’t care.
Junior Guerra – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. It ain’t pretty, but a 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP works. He’s a streaming option, though I wouldn’t have recommended this one against the Dbacks. A 3:4 K per BB is far from alluring, especially from Guerra whose value is in a decent strikeout rate. Twins are next and that’s not terrible, so consider it for H2H leagues needing a Sunday start.
Lance McCullers – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. McCullers does what McCullers do like 80% of the time.
Eric Skoglund – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I had accidentally labeled this as a “Start” in the Sit/Start article, but maybe it was Nicktrosdamus doing his thang. No, definitely a mistake and I feel super lucky if people saw that before I corrected it Monday afternoon. Better to be lucky than good, y’all. So who cares, what about Skoglund? What about him? It’s a One Night Bland, he’ll never be the Scandinavian Disney Prince (SDP) we want him to be.
Tyler Anderson – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. This is far from the start I wanted from Anderson – one out short of the QS and just 3 Ks? – but he left with a dub and didn’t demolish your week. I’m taking a sad win today, and I’d roll with him next time against the Giants as well. Streaming Record: 24-13.
Carlos Carrasco – 6.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Ehhhh you want a little more from Carrasco, but alright I guess.
Joey Lucchesi – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Have teams figured out the Churve? It didn’t look like Joey had a feel for the pitch last night, earning just 2 whiffs of the 17 he threw – the only whiffs he had overall! – as he was pulled early with “glute discomfort.” I’m willing to say this was just one of those nights and keep him around. We should give him some credit for not turning this into a disaster as well.
Sean Manaea – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Manaea faced the Sawx again and instead of a no-hitter, he gave you a VPQS. Against the Sawx, I think we still take that. So I understand that his 2.35 ERA and 0.80 WHIP are going to regress, that’s well understood. What I will tell you is his 21% K rate isn’t fair as he’s averaging over 5 Ks per start – it’s what happens when you hold a near 7 IPS – and he’s refusing to walk batters with just a 3.4% clip. Last time I talked about Manaea’s inability to jam left-handers and he actually elected to avoid it nearly all-together in this one. That’s the only worry here and not enough for me to get off this ride.
Patrick Corbin – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Velocity was hovering 90mph here, but he wins the Gallows Pole at 15 whiffs. Huh. Slider was dope as dope gets – 14 for 36 in whiffs – but his velocity was hanging around 91 and change early before falling off in the late innings. I’d continue playing the market here.
Chris Stratton – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. There’s a reason you fell off The List and I think you’re sticking around down there for a bit. Bummer.
Julio Teheran – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks. This is more like the Teheran we know and hate, though I understand if you want to hold him past this. It was in Wrigley and better days could be ahead, I just think starts like these are more akin to what his repertoire dictates.
Rick Porcello – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. That’s two straight crooked outings for Porcello, though they came against the Yanks and A’s, two of the Top 10 offenses in wOBA this year. I think this makes for a decent buy low here. O’s, Braves, Jays, Tigers, Chi Sox, Mariners, Twins follow.
Jose Quintana – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Quintana keeps stumbling and it’s driving us all mad. Sure, this was against the Braves and we all know how hot they are right now – so hot – but he should be able to avoid 12 baserunners and a 6 ER brick of a start. It’s too bad as it came off just 1 ER allowed in his last three starts combined. His fastballs are the biggest problems of the lot – mainly his two-seamer – and while I think that gets sorted out in some fashion, I’m hesitant to give him yet another TIARA. We’ll see next time out and go from there.
Sal Romano – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Nobody Loves you Sal, I’m sorry.
Jake Faria vs. Kansas City Royals – I imagine he’ll be on the wire for a decent amount leagues after his latest blegh outing, and I’d be okay doing this. Faria fluctuates and could turn it around here.
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