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Kelly’s Good Graces

There are a bunch of pitchers that I barely give a second glance to since I can label a solid performance on a given night to a one-time thing that shouldn’t...

There are a bunch of pitchers that I barely give a second glance to since I can label a solid performance on a given night to a one-time thing that shouldn’t be trusted moving forward. Joe Kelly has been one of those guys but after yesterday’s effort of 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks I had to take a look at his recent stretch of success.  Including this outing, Kelly now has a 1.69 ERA over his last five starts with five Wins…at that’s where the good numbers end.  His FIP/xFIP across that time is 3.90/4.04, his strikeout numbers are abysmal at 6.19 K/9, and he features a below averge 2.81 BB/9 as well.  He’s relied on a 91.2% LOB rate to keep runners from scoring, aided by a .256 BABIP.  Need I say more?  Don’t go chasing after Kelly or you’ll be kicking rocks sooner than you’ll like this September.

Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:

Drew Hutchison – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks.  I simply don’t understand why Hutchison performs so much better at home than on the road.  Whatever the reason, you best acknowledge it and avoid him when he’s out of Toronto.

Luis Severino – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks.  I have a feeling Severino will be a nice mid-late round SP pick in drafts next season.  Have no fear in the closing weeks as Severino will not be limited by the Yankees.  Awww yeah.

Lance Lynn – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. A good outing but most importantly he was pulled after rolling his ankle.  Reports say he’ll make his next start but I’d be monitoring it carefully.

Mike Fiers – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks.  Solid, but you want dem Ks from Fiers.

Jacob deGrom – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks.  Aces gonna ace.  Silly he didn’t get the W, but that’s why I never talk about Wins and Losses unless it’s making fun of Tillman.

Jhoulys Chacin – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Nah, you don’t want Chacin.

Adam Morgan – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks.  Or Morgan.  Definitely not Morgan.

Jordan Zimmermann – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Looks like JZ went back to his roots for this jam.

Garrett Richards – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks.  So here’s why you’ve been frustrated all year.  Richards can do things like this with his lively Fastball, but most of the time he can’t harness its power.  If you need that upside, sure do you, but I wouldn’t want to trust Richards to step up through the rest of the season.

Matt Wisler – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks.  Yeah, not my kind of fella.

J.A. Happ – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. That Happened.

Corey Kluber – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Oh come on Klubs, don’t go through one of these sub 7 K runs again.  We need you now MORE THAN EVER.

Kris Medlen – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. This is fine.  As the Call Boy he was chosen for having a solid floor.  He was pulled after only 78 pitches as the Royals are easing him back into the starting role, but expect to rise a bit in future starts.

Martin Perez – 6.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. He’s super mediocre and the Ks will never be there.

Aaron Brooks – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Yup, that’s a Brooks line.  Not much more upside left to tap.

Mat Latos – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Remember when we thought latos was on the rebound?  HA Ha ha…

Chris Rusin – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. Rusin has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team.  This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter.

Hisashi Iwakuma – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks.  Interesting as Iwakuma rarely walks more than two batters, let alone four.  Clearly something was off here.

Jon Lester – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks.  Dang Lester, I love the K/BB, but you just couldn’t keep in together in the 7th.  We were so close!

Colin Rea – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks.  I can be difficult stepping in the Rea world.

Jeff Samardzija – 5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks.  Loose Lips is still sinking ships.  Watch him become a deep sleeper next year from some people and I just don’t buy it.

Tom Koehler – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks.  Nah Tom, there are boys that are actually girls that are Koehler than you.  Just so we’re clear, that was a tomboy joke, correct?  Right you are.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks.  Can’t…stop…pulling…out…my…hair.  CAN’T STOP WON’T STOP.

Jake Odorizzi – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks.  Sure, it hasn’t been pretty lately, but his FIP is still under 2.30 in his last three starts.  He’ll be fine through September.  Not amazing, but fine.

Ryan Vogelsong – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks.  Go away Vogelsong.   

Mike Pelfrey – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks.  Pelfrey didn’t get any votes for the MFRTPSA, but there is still time!  Well, for everyone else if he’s going to keep performing like this.

Keyvius Sampson – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks.  Just no.

Buck Farmer – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks.   Farmer could be a decent finesse guy in future years but he has a lot more developing to do before then.

Matt Garza – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 11 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks.  This should come to no surprise as Garza has been making owners feel like this all season.

Today’s Streamers

Lance McCullers vs. Minnesota Twins – He’s back on the hill and still owned in under 5%0 of leagues.  If you need a deeper streamer, you can go with Josh Tomlin against the Angels or Nathan Eovaldi against the Braves to help win your week.

Tomorrow’s Streamer

Wei-Yin Chen vs. Tampa Bay Rays  – A solid floor awaits you if you start Chen as this is as good of a matchup as you’ll find for the Oriole lefty.

Game of the Day

Jake Arrieta vs. Alex Wood – Two playoff bound teams featuring one of the best aces around.  My kind of game.

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

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