Going Deep: Cast(ellanos) Away

The past few years, Nicholas Castellanos has felt like Robinson Crusoe stranded on the deserted island known as Comerica Park. Much like Crusoe, first he was captured by pirates (the rebuilding Tigers), then once shipwrecked on a deserted island (Comerica Park) with just a few animals (Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Anibal Sanchez), he had to survive in a harsh (the Tigers roster the past few years) and hostile environment (the AL Centra—oh fine that one doesn’t work) by adapting to the environment (hitting the ball hard for doubles and triples) but becoming largely forgotten by the world (the fantasy community because he doesn’t hit home runs). In the end, though, other ships show up (the Cubs, Rays, and Phillies) and rescue Crusoe (Castellanos) by striking a deal (at the trade deadline), and he comes home to discover unclaimed wealth in a new land (a park where he hits home runs!).

What, you think this is a flimsy metaphor? Look, the last time I read Robinson Crusoe, Michael Jordan was playing baseball. Work with me here.

The point of the metaphor is that since being stranded on the rebuilding Tigers, Castellanos has become fantasy baseball’s forgotten man. On the surface, it seems clear why that is the case. Here are his base roto stats in 2019 and what they’d look like prorated across the entire rest of the season:

 

 

While Castellanos would represent a value in average and runs, he’s currently an active detriment to your team in home runs, RBI, and stolen bases, so it’s somewhat understandable that people are down on him. Then, about a month ago, trade rumors started swirling around Castellanos with three teams (the aforementioned Cubs, Rays, and Phillies) now actively inquiring about his availability and a few others being speculated as good landing spots (Cleveland, Atlanta).

Castellanos is a free agent next season entering his age-28 season, and the Tigers are a long, long way from contending. There’s no good reason for them to not trade Castellanos while he still has value. Then, a few days ago, during the post-game, Castellanos went off on how Comerica has held him back and suppressed his value. This got me thinking: Is playing his home games in Detroit holding him back? If so, what sort of potential does a change in venue hold for the rest of his season?

If you have read much of my writing, you know that I have a long-standing interest in the thin line between doubles and home runs. I’ve written about how everything from the weather to dumb luck can affect whether a hit falls for a double or clears the fence for a home run. So when I saw Castellanos’ doubles total for 2019 I knew something had to be up. Check this out:

 

 

That’s an insane amount of doubles. For context, 58 doubles would be the 10th-highest single-season total in baseball history! Call me skeptical that this is solely because of Castellanos having gap-to-gap power and nothing more. Once you take into consideration how many doubles he’s hit to center over 375 feet and doubles to right and left field over 350 feet, I’m starting to suspect that Castellanos is getting robbed of at least a few home runs every year. What about triples?

 

 

So as you can see there was an abundance of extra-base hits that would have likely been home runs in most parks. And a ton of them have come in Comerica. Two of Castellanos’ doubles in 2019 were hit to left and right-center field for distances of 383 feet and 395 feet respectively. Here are their spray chart locations:

 

 

Let’s grant the supposition that both those balls would have left the yard in most parks at that distance. Do we feel better about Castellanos if had two more home runs at this point in the season? That would put him on pace for 22 home runs. While not ideal, it’s still a push in the right direction. Though I think there might be even more there.

What I want to do to provide further context is look at each of the individual parks of the teams mentioned in connection to Castellanos and evaluate them on three levels: First, I want to take a look at the park factors of each location and see how Castellanos’ season would look different to this point when you are solely considering the math. Then, I want to take a look at Castellanos’ pulled and opposite-field doubles and triples and see how they match up with the other parks’ dimensions, with some consideration toward the climate and elevation of said parks. Finally, I want to look at each of those teams’ schedules and break down how the remaining schedules should affect our expectations for Castellanos should he be traded.

Let’s get started.

So far in 2019, Castellanos has a near 50/50 split in his home/road plate appearances. But he has hit eight of his 11 home runs on the road, so we’re going to compare his home park (and potential home parks) and see if there are any suitors that might represent an improvement. There are five teams that have been linked to Castellanos, with the Cubs, Phillies, and Rays having actually inquired about him while the Indians and Braves have been repeatedly been put out there as logical destinations. Here are the park factors in each of these parks alongside Comerica:

 

 

OK, so we can see from the numbers that while Comerica is pretty good overall for runs, singles, doubles, and triples thanks to its spacious confines, three out of the five prospective parks would be improvements for his home run numbers. So the next step is to take his numbers at Comerica and see what would have approximately looked like in the respective parks:

 

 

For this exercise, I used 2019’s park factors that were up to date as of July 22. My thought process for doing so was I wanted to factor in the early season effects that tend to get ironed out over the course of the season. This way we can get an idea of how different issues such as cold weather or wind might have had an effect on Castellanos’ home numbers so far this season. I also figured this would be the best way to factor in the results of the new ball. We’ll do this at the end with 2018’s full year numbers to try and get an idea for the rest of the season in a moment.

For now, it’s worth noting that only three parks would have represented an upgrade over Comerica based solely on park factors. With that being said, even the single solitary home run those parks would have added still goes a long way over the entire season toward getting him over that 22-home run mark.

What about the second half? I think to figure that out we then need to switch gears and look at last year’s full-season park factors as that will at least give us a better picture of how the wam weather and raised humity affect the park. Here are the park factors from 2018:

 

 

The yearlong view shows what a difference the warm weather months can make. So what happens if we pace out what his rest-of-season numbers would look like if we first prorated his 2019 season’s home numbers in Comerica and then used the 2018 park factors to see if any particular destination helps him out?

 

 

So the Cubs, Phillies, and Indians would hypothetically be improved home parks for Castellanos to call home. What happens if you prorated and then add in his away numbers?