FantasyDraft DFS Plays for September 19
Wednesday night delivers a 10-game DFS slate on FantasyDraft. Rather than touching Luis Severino or David Price in a marquee Yankees-Red Sox showdown, let’s play the other ace from an AL title hopeful.
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Top SP: Carlos Carrasco ($21,000) vs. Chicago White Sox
Walker Buehler at home versus the Rockies is also appealing, but I’ll take the cheaper Carlos Carrasco. Cleveland’s ace has contributed to their 25.4 % strikeout rate against righties by compiling 20 punchouts in two starts. He wields a 2.45 ERA and 32.0 K% after the All-Star break, so there’s immense upside to unearth in cash contests and tournaments.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler ($22,100) vs. COL
Value SP: Chris Stratton ($15,800) at San Diego Padres
This isn’t as cheap as I’d like, but it’s hard to argue with a matchup at San Diego. An MLB-high 25.8 % strikeout rate and NL-low .289 wOBA make them easy prey for Chris Stratton, who has registered a 2.10 ERA in his last five starts following Friday’s complete-game shutout against Colorado. Although the overall numbers (4.66 ERA, 10.1 K-BB%, 40.1 % hard-hit rate) still aren’t pretty, the confluence of matchup and hot hand establish the San Francisco righty as the evening’s top mid-tier starter.
Honorable Mention: Chris Archer ($15,700) vs. KC
IF Eugenio Suarez ($9,200) at Milwaukee Brewers (LHP Gio Gonzalez)
Eugenio Suarez has fallen to earth with a .335 wOBA and 30.5 % strikeout rate after the All-Star break. Yet he flaunts a pristine .329/.437/.621 slash line against southpaws. If he’s getting dinged for his recent splits, it’s only fair to penalize Gio Gonzalez for his 5.80 ERA and 7.3 K-BB % in 10 second-half starts. He has relinquished a .342 wOBA to righties, so this is an elite matchup to exploit while saving some money by not paying over $10,000 for another stud (Mike Trout, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor).
IF Jed Lowrie ($7,300) vs. Los Angeles Angels (RHP Felix Pena)
Jed Lowrie is one of several slumping stars available around this price point. In addition to him hitting .188 (9-for-50) with no homers in September, the opposing Felix Pena has tossed a 1.35 ERA this month. Let’s not get carried away by two weeks. Lowrie still boasts a .365 wOBA against righties, and lefties are hitting .280/.349/.430 against Pena. Oakland’s second baseman already reversed a July swoon in August, so don’t count out a strong finish with playoff ramifications at stake.
Honorable Mentions: Brian Dozier ($7,400) vs. COL (Anderson); Jean Segura ($7,200) at HOU (Keuchel); Ketel Marte ($7,200) vs. CHC (Cole Hamels)
Value: IF Luke Voit ($6,400) vs. Boston Red Sox (LHP David Price)
Price is on a roll, so this is a risky selection. But cheap pickings are slim, and Luke Voit at least didn’t make me vomit in my mouth like Hunter Pence. The slugger is sporting a hearty .292/.376/.551 slash line since joining the Yankees. Hey, at least there’s a chance he goes yard. Gary Sanchez ($7,700), Miguel Andujar ($7,200) and Gleyber Torres ($7,400) could also form a cheap, against-the-grain stack for those who think there’s something to Price’s career 4.75 ERA at the new Yankee Stadium.
Honorable Mentions: Miguel Andujar ($7,200) vs. BOS (Price); Steven Souza ($6,700) vs. CHC (Hamels)
Lineup Stack: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Jimmy Yacabonis)
The Orioles are starting Jimmy Yacabonis, a 26-year-old rookie with a 7.22 ERA and eight homers allowed in 129 batters faced. Since the Blue Jays are a losing team playing out the final days before they can go home, there’s plenty of value to wring out of a no-name lineup:
- IF Kendrys Morales ($8,200): There’s no need to spring for Justin Smoak ($9,200) or Randal Grichuk ($8,800), but Morales has a more reasonable price because he hasn’t touched them all since August’s eight homer tear. He’s a .278/.372/.508 hitter against righties who caught fire last month with the help of Baltimore’s abysmal pitching.
- OF Dwight Smith Jr ($7,600): Rather play a hot hand? Smith has gone 13-for-45 with five walks, four doubles, and two homers against righties. He’s also not an everyday starter, so check Toronto’s lineup card.
- OF Billy McKinney ($7,500): McKinney has cooled down considerably from an unsustainable arrival, but he’s still leading off against righties.
- IF Rowdy Tellez ($7,300): Tellez has gone 13-for-34 with seven doubles and a homer since his Sept. 5 promotion. This isn’t a long-term endorsement, but merely a raking rookie getting a vulnerable opponent at the perfect time.
Honorable Mentions: Mariners at Astros (Keuchel); Dodgers vs. Rockies (Anderson)