As the season unfolds, I’ve broken down every MLB team’s starting rotation and forecasted them with each team’s upcoming schedule. You may ask, why would you do this? The most straightforward answer is finding the best upcoming matchups for the lesser-known starting pitchers.
This way, we can maximize the end of our rosters and try to squeeze every last ounce of value that might be available on a waiver wire. Or, perhaps, drop a fringe-worthy pitcher early due to horrendous matchups.
Churning your roster at the correct times is critical to in-season management. Think about it this way: do you really need to hold onto that pitcher if you’re not going to start him in these key weeks?
Indeed, we are ranking these matchups based on the opponent’s offense, and here are my offensive tiers to do so. Also, please don’t get held up on the offensive rankings … if your preference is to stream against STL instead of NYM, or you think CLE should be in the “Fine” tier; go for it!
Dave Swan’s Offensive Tiers
(OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
(DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
Diamondbacks’ Expected Schedule
- Still plenty of OFF days and some favorable matchups to make the Diamondbacks a sufficient place to find a streamer.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta’s Expected Schedule
- For a few weeks, we’ve speculated that Mike Soroka will join the rotation. However, the likely name that’ll draw a start after Bryce Elder is Dylan Dodd. Whoever gets the nod will get a solid matchup (@ OAK) in Week 9.
Orioles’ Expected Schedule
- A lot of grab-and-hold targets here, but not until after Week 8.
Red Sox’s Expected Schedule
- Nick Pivetta heads to the bullpen, and the rotation turns into a five-man unit.
- Garrett Whitlock could be back from the IL and will potentially re-join the rotation by next weekend.
Cubs’ Expected Schedule
- Nothing official, yet, but Kyle Hendricks should jump into the rotation for a home start vs. CIN.
- Hayden Wesneski was optioned to Triple-A.
White Sox’s Expected Schedule
- Mike Clevinger heads to the 15-day IL and Jesse Sholtens jumps into the fray. Additionally, he’ll get a two-start in Week 8. In 38 Triple-A IPs, Sholtens touts a 44:11 K/BB ratio with a 3.99 ERA. Although, the long ball plagued him as he allowed nine HRs in that timespan.
Reds’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Reds are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. STL, MIL, and LAD.
- A pretty straightforward schedule but only one OFF day. That could indicate shorter appearances for the starters.
Guardians’ Expected Schedule
- I know, many were hoping for Gavin Williams. Unfortunately, Hunter Gaddis is the consolation prize. With Aaron Civale and Triston McKenzie nearing a return, the chances for Williams to make an early impact suffer.
Rockies’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Rockies are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. MIA, NYM, SFG, and SDP.
- Even if the matchups are viable, we don’t stream pitchers at Coors Field.
Tigers’ Expected Schedule
- The immediate matchups are decent and this is a streamable rotation. But I wouldn’t look too much past Week 8.
Astros’ Expected Schedule
- Same as last week, France and Bielak are solid options for streaming in Week 8.
Royals’ Expected Schedule
- Carlos Hernández has made spot starts but only going a couple of innings in each. He could start on Saturday (5/28) but shouldn’t garner much attention.
- Daniel Lynch is lined up for a start on Tuesday (vs. DET). Although, expect a pitch count that’ll limit his innings.
- Also, be on the lookout for the back-to-back OFF days after the Greinke start (@ STL). We could see a skipped start from someone.
Angels’ Expected Schedule
- The Angels will stick with a six-man rotation.
- Chase Silseth will move to the bullpen and Jaime Barría takes his spot in the rotation. In 2023, Barria has made ten appearances with a majority being multi-inning relief spots.
Dodgers’ Expected Schedule
- Injuries have decimated the rotation.
- Confirmed: Gavin Stone (Monday) and Bobby Miller (Tuesday) will join the rotation.
Marlins’ Expected Schedule
- The first few series are tough but things will get easier in the back-end of Week 9 and beyond.
Brewers’ Expected Schedule
- Wade Miley hits the IL for 6-8 weeks.
- Colin Rea and Eric Lauer rejoin the rotation. Although, with only one OFF day over the next few weeks, Milwaukee’s depleted staff could need help from the minors soon.
Twins’ Expected Schedule
- The Twins are one of the more consistent rotations and everything should line up nicely with the extra OFF days.
Mets’ Expected Schedule
- As we assumed last week, David Peterson is out of the rotation and Carlos Carrasco takes his spot.
- With an OFF day in each turn of starts, they’ll all be plenty rested, and easy to determine the matchup.
Yankees’ Expected Schedule
- Luis Severino returned and performed quite well on Sunday (5/21). His presence pushed Jhony Brito down to Triple-A.
Athletics’ Expected Schedule
- There isn’t anything here for Week 8. However, things get a little easier after the Week 9 series vs. ATL.
Phillies’ Expected Schedule
- Bailey Falter was demoted to Triple-A. In his spot, the team is using an opener (Connor Brogdon) and Dylan Covey. Covey was recently acquired from the Dodgers and tossed four innings last week.
Pirates’ Expected Schedule
- Vince Velasquez is ready to make his return, but won’t rejoin the rotation until after Luis Ortiz makes his Monday start. After the Monday (5/22) start vs. TEX, Ortiz will likely get sent back down to Triple-A.
Padres’ Expected Schedule
- Seth Lugo will miss a couple of turns through the rotation and Ryan Weathers will stick around. Additionally, he gets a few viable matchups and could be on your waiver wire.
- With plenty of OFF days, the Padres should stick with a five-man rotation for a while.
Giants’ Expected Schedule
- Sean Manaea was banished to the bullpen but after an injury to Ross Stripling, he’s back. The Giants will use an opener in front of him. In Week 8, it’s John Brebbia.
Mariners’ Expected Schedule
- Week 8 is great for matchups…Week 9, not so much.
- Get that two-start Marco Gonzales share if he’s available.
Cardinals’ Expected Schedule
- I’m sticking with a six-man rotation on the Cardinals. The sporadic usage of Matthew Liberatore is a little puzzling but he’s slated for a Week 8 start Wednesday.
- In Week 9, STL gets back-to-back OFF days after a two-game set vs. KCR. I wouldn’t make plans for any of the starters after that point as they could reshuffle the rotation.
Rays’ Expected Schedule
- This rotation has been a mess to predict.
- Yonny Chirinos is back in the minors and Cooper Criswell joined the bullpen, likely in a similar long-relief role with an opener.
- Somewhat speculative, but Tyler Glasnow should rejoin the rotation. He looked sharp in his recent rehab assignment and lines up for the Friday (5/26) start.
Rangers’ Expected Schedule
- Jacob deGrom is reportedly making progress but isn’t joining the rotation soon. That means you’ll see Dane Dunning for a little bit, and he’s got a decent two-step this week.
Blue Jays’ Expected Schedule
- Only one OFF day over the next few weeks. Luckily, it’ll mean matchups will be much easier to predict but a small window for error if a minor injury arises.
Nationals’ Expected Schedule
- Outside of the three-game series against the Royals in Week 8, it’s a pass for the Nats.