As the season unfolds, I’ve broken down every MLB team’s starting rotation and forecasted them with each team’s upcoming schedule. You may ask, why would you do this? The most straightforward answer is finding the best upcoming matchups for the lesser-known starting pitchers.
This way, we can maximize the end of our rosters and try to squeeze every last ounce of value that might be available on a waiver wire. Or, perhaps, drop a fringe-worthy pitcher early due to horrendous matchups. Churning your roster at the correct times is critical to late-season management. Think about it this way: do you really need to hold onto that pitcher if you’re not going to start him in these key weeks?
Indeed, we are ranking these matchups based on the opponent’s offense, and here are my offensive tiers to do so. Also, please don’t get held up on the offensive rankings… if your preference is to stream against STL instead of LAA, or you think CLE should be in the “Fine” tier; go for it!
Dave Swan’s Offensive Tiers
(OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
(DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
Diamondbacks’ Expected Schedule
- Well, we finally got Pfaadt in the rotation. Hasn’t gone as according to plan but it’s early.
- With no OFF days for the first two starts, it’ll be very easy to plan.
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta’s Expected Schedule
- Thanks to a couple of close OFF days Atlanta won’t need a fifth starter until the second start. Additionally, to keep the five days rest, a starter (Mike Soroka or Dylan Dodd) will jump into the rotation.
Orioles’ Expected Schedule
- Adequate OFF days, and a couple of series at home to begin should make things easy to predict. Although, the matchups aren’t that palatable.
Red Sox’s Expected Schedule
- According to reports, James Paxton will make his season debut during the STL series. That’ll push Boston back to a six-man rotation. Accurately predicting this rotation will be challenging, given the multitude of OFF days and extra SP. I wouldn’t look too far into the future with this staff just yet.
Cubs’ Expected Schedule
- Jameson Taillon re-enters the rotation.
- The rotation should be pretty straightforward and with an extra OFF day, everyone will be pitching with an extra day of rest.
White Sox’s Expected Schedule
- Yikes, one OFF day for the next four starts. If there are any hiccups, we could see CHW get creative, or possibly, a stretch with the SPs tossing fewer innings.
Reds’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Reds are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. NYM, NYY, and STL.
- Right, it’s looking like the @MIA series is the only viable place to use most of the staff.
Guardians’ Expected Schedule
- Looking for a widely available SP with a string of decent starts? Insert Peyton Battenfield, but be cautious as he is striking out less than a batter per innings and the underlying metrics aren’t reassuring.
Rockies’ Expected Schedule
- Note: The Rockies are taxed one tier anytime they are home. Hence, different shades for games vs. PHI, CIN, MIA, and NYM.
- Even with decent matchups at home, it’s never a good feeling to start a Rockies pitcher. Don’t do it.
Tigers’ Expected Schedule
- Three OFF days in a span of nine days mean someone in the rotation could get skipped.
- Be wary in that area, and look at this as more of a day-to-day rotation, rather than planning ahead.
- Alex Faedo will take Spencer Turnbull’s spot in the rotation.
Astros’ Expected Schedule
- Houston gets a highly favorable set of weeks. In deeper leagues, this should put J.P. France and Brandon Bielak at least on your radar. There is a good chance they’re still on your wire.
Royals’ Expected Schedule
- After taking a comebacker, Ryan Yarbrough’s spot in the rotation could be in jeopardy. Likely, he’ll see time on the 7-day concussion list. Stay tuned for an update.
- UPDATE: Yarbrough going to the IL. Expect Daniel Lynch to take his spot.
Angels’ Expected Schedule
- Even with a six-man rotation, the Angels’ rotation has been very steady. However, we are awaiting an MRI on José Suarez. With the extra OFF day, the team could elect to skip his spot and stick to the schedule. If Suarez hits the IL, next in line is Chase Silseth or Tucker Davidson.
- UPDATE: Suarez is headed to the IL and Silseth will take his spot.
Dodgers’ Expected Schedule
- There was consideration for a six-man rotation but, instead, the Dodgers will roll out a standard five-man.
- Although, we could see a change in the near future as Noah Syndergaard has been abysmal (31.1 IP with a 15% K-rate and ERA north of six).
Marlins’ Expected Schedule
- Trevor Rogers is still weeks away, and Johnny Cueto re-injured himself in his latest rehab start. That means you’ll likely see Hoeing for those decent starts (vs. CIN and vs. WSN). However, he’s only 15-team relevant.
Brewers’ Expected Schedule
- Adrian Houser made his return to the rotation, and that’ll likely bump Colin Rea from the rotation. Especially when you consider they’ve got plenty of OFF days and won’t want a six-man rotation.
Twins’ Expected Schedule
- The rotation has been spectacular and Kenta Maeda/Tyler Mahle won’t be back anytime soon. Check your wire because Ober and Varland might still be there.
Mets’ Expected Schedule
- The Mets rotation has been a mess for most of the year. However, at the moment, things might have settled down. We should expect to see these arms for the next few weeks, or until David Peterson finds his mojo again.
Yankees’ Expected Schedule
- After Oakland, it’s just brutal matchups. Outside of Cortes and Cole, would you feel that confident starting any of these SPs against those matchups?
Athletics’ Expected Schedule
- Only one OFF day could signal some issues. Outside of Mason Miller, the rotation isn’t worth rostering in 12-teamers.
Phillies’ Expected Schedule
- Matt Strahm was bumped into the bullpen as Ranger Suárez will make his season debut this week. Unfortunately, it lines up at Coors Field. After that start, vs. CHC, and vs. ARI could work out, but wait and see.
Pirates’ Expected Schedule
- Vince Velazquez winds up on the IL and Luis Ortiz is the most likely candidate for the spot. His fastball/slider are nothing short of impressive and a pair of easier matchups makes him a must-add.
Padres’ Expected Schedule
- San Diego has been sticking with a five-man rotation and keeping Nick Martinez in the bullpen. Will Martinez be coming back anytime soon? Probably not, they’ve got OFF days for the next four turns.
Giants’ Expected Schedule
- Alex Wood began a rehab assignment on Sunday (5/7). At some point, he’ll be back in the rotation, and it’ll get dicey for predicting matchups. Additionally, one OFF day in the next few weeks means we could see the starters going fewer innings and more bulk work from the bullpen.
Mariners’ Expected Schedule
- With the emergence of Bryce Miller, the rotation looks locked and loaded for the upcoming weeks. We shouldn’t expect any changes.
Cardinals’ Expected Schedule
- So much of this rotation has been a mess and underwhelmed. If you’re looking for a good stash play, Matthew Liberatore has been dominating the minors. They could make a switch there soon. Otherwise, proceed with caution when starting anyone besides Jordan Montgomery.
Rays’ Expected Schedule
- Yikes! Tough matchups all around!
- Josh Fleming typically gets an opener, however, it won’t matter because of those matchups.
Rangers’ Expected Schedule
- Still no deGrom, he’s weeks away from returning. So, you’ve got these five holding down the rotation. In deGrom’s spot, Dane Dunning came in and offered up a solid appearance (5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K).
Blue Jays’ Expected Schedule
- This rotation has been very steady; too bad the matchups aren’t better.
Nationals’ Expected Schedule
- Josiah Gray continues with a stretch of terrific matchups. Shallow leagues need to scoop him up.
- Jake Irvin replaced Chad Kuhl, but I wouldn’t give too much thought to Irvin. He doesn’t have big strikeout stuff and walks will be problematic for him.