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Top SP: Gerrit Cole, HOU ($10,200) vs. CLE
Gerrit Cole got absolutely shelled in his last outing in Arlington, and he now stands at 1-3 on the year with a 5.22 ERA. Oh, and he’s also the most expensive pitcher on the slate. So why play him? Because everything in his peripherals point to him being far better than his numbers show. His FIP is all the way down at 2.81, and his xFIP is an even smaller 2.66. He’s striking out 13.5 batters per nine innings, and the Indians strike out plenty. His last poor outing and high price tag will hopefully scare other players away from him, but Cole should be the top man on the slate by a decent margin.
Honorable Mention: Masahiro Tanaka ($9,300) @ LAA.
Value SP: Caleb Smith, MIA ($7,300) @ PHI
You’re going to have to have some cojones to make this play, as the Phillies lineup can decimate a pitcher on any given day, but as our fearless leader keeps pointing out, Caleb Smith is vastly undervalued. He is posting darn near elite numbers with peripheral stats backing up the goods. A win could be tough here, especially facing Aaron Nola, who will look to right the ship against a soft Marlins lineup, but low ownership could make this a gamble worth taking. If he’s as sharp as he’s been, he’s today’s lotto ticket.
Honorable Mention: Rick Porcello ($7,800) vs. DET.
As of right now, this game has the highest implied total on the slate, and the Red Sox should be doing the bulk of the scoring. In case you weren’t aware, Jordan Zimmermann is not good. The Sox should feast on him early and often. I could’ve put any Boston player here and felt comfortable, but with three multi-hit efforts in his past five games, Mookie Betts seems to be finally seeing the ball better. The Boston stack may be popular but for good reason.
Luke Voit seems to feel right at home in Anaheim. With three homers in two games, this is a simple instance of riding the hot hand. For a guy who is a home run threat on any given night, he’s also priced well below his value. Add in the fact that Trevor Cahill is giving up over 2.7 home runs per nine innings, and this should mean a recipe for success for big boy Voit. There’s not a lot to love in the Yankees lineup right now, but a big fly would make him well worth the asking price
This young man is a brand new big-leaguer, but he’s already shown the poise to prove he belongs. Again, if I wasn’t clear earlier, Zimmermann is not good, and the Red Sox will feast upon his lackluster stuff. Not only has Michael Chavis shown patience at the plate, (three walks last night) but he’s gone yard and swiped a bag in limited action. Again, the Red Sox stack will be no secret, but folks might overlook the young gun while building their lineups. I think he’s a good candidate to knock one over the Monster and get on base a time or two to sweeten the pot.
Lineup Stack: Mariners vs. Rangers (LHP Taylor Hearn)
The masses will be on the Red Sox tomorrow, and as I’ve stated above, they have every right to be, but the Mariners will be facing a newbie in Taylor Hearn, who has a decent fastball but not much else. Granted, this game takes place at T-Mobile Park and not in Arlington, but Seattle’s right-handed bats should have a day against Hearn. I would plug Domingo Santana and Mitch Haniger into my lineup without thinking twice and throw in Edwin Encarnacion as well. I think the Mariners score early and often in this one, in a game that may go overlooked by some of the folks in the GPP.
Honorable Mentions: Red Sox vs. Tigers (RHP Jordan Zimmermann).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.