Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Top Play SP: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($11,900) vs. SF
Tonight’s best K-BB rate belongs to none other than Lucas Giolito at 23.6%. Just behind him, however, is Clayton Kershaw at 21.7% (3.70 SIERA). Recent blip against the D-Backs aside, the longtime Dodger ace has been fantastic this year, sporting a 2.96 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while holding both lefties and righties to an identical .276 wOBA. Considering that the Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the board tonight at -250, he seems like the obvious choice when picking among the top-tier arms tonight. The visiting San Francisco Giants have been a well below average against left-handed pitchers with a .304 team wOBA and 88 wRC+ and have tonight’s lowest implied total at just over three runs.
Honorable mention: Giolito, CWS ($12,100) vs. LAA (Dillon Peters).
Value SP: Homer Bailey, OAK ($8,500) vs. DET
We’ll pick on the Tigers here, who have been just dreadful against right-handed pitchers this season with a .285 team wOBA and 74 wRC+. Overall, Homer Bailey (13.3% K-BB rate, 4.66 SIERA) hasn’t been great, but he has pitched well lately, most notably in two starts against the Yankees, where he tallied nine and eight punchouts. He’s also exceeded the 100-pitch plateau in four of his past seven turns, which is always a plus. He and the A’s are big home favorites (-220) while the visiting Tigers have the second-lowest implied team total of the night just ahead of the Giants in their date against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw.
If you’re looking to save a bit more, Pablo Lopez (16.5% K-BB rate, 4.24 SIERA) has shown some strong skills this year. He gets a nice matchup against the Royals (.304 team wOBA, 84 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019). The one concern with Lopez though is that he’s coming back from a lengthy injury, so we’re most likely looking at a relatively limited pitch count (he threw 86 pitches in his first start back on Aug. 26). He’s going to need to be efficient to pay dividends.
Honorable mention: Pablo Lopez, MIA ($6,300) vs. KC (Jorge Lopez).
Top Play: OF Eddie Rosario, MIN ($4,600) vs. CLE
Adam Plutko has shown some very sharp splits as he’s allowed a .354 wOBA and .232 ISO to go along with a dreadful 10.1% strikeout rate against lefties this year. Cleanup hitter Eddie Rosario (.339 wOBA, 110 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019) gives us some affordable exposure to the Twins, who have one of the better implied totals of the slate at just under six runs.
Honorable mentions: OF Aaron Judge ($5, 300) at BOS (Jhoulys Chacin); 1B Edwin Encarnacion ($5,300) at BOS (Gonzales); 1B/OF Cody Bellinger ($5,100) vs. SF (Jeff Samardzija); OF Nelson Cruz ($5,300) vs. CLE (Plutko).
Top Play: OF Michael Conforto, NYM ($4,500) vs. PHI
Zach Eflin (11.8% K-BB rate, 4.86 SIERA) has shown limited ability to control batted balls against opposing lefties. He’s allowed a .363 wOBA, .255 ISO, a noticeably higher fly-ball rate, as well as a higher 10.4 % walk rate against lefties (just 2.6% against rights). He might get overlooked on a full 15-game slate, but this is a prime matchup for Michael Conforto (.381 wOBA, 140 wRC+ vs RHP in 2019) to take advantage.
Honorable mentions: 1B Matt Olson ($4,600) vs. DET (Spencer Turnbull); OF Willie Calhoun ($4,500) at BAL (Dylan Bundy); OF (GPP) Mike Trout ($4,900) at CWS (Giolito); OF Austin Meadows ($4,800) vs. TOR (Clay Buchholz), 2B/SS Gleyber Torres ($4,800) at BOS (Chacin).
Value: SS Corey Seager, LAD ($3,900) vs. SF
Samardzija has been noticeably worse against lefties for a long while, and that’s held true this year as he has allowed a .334 wOBA and .244 ISO against left-handed hitters this year as opposed to a .252 wOBA and .128 ISO against right-handed hitters. The recent injury to Max Muncy has facilitated Corey Seager’s (.350 wOBA, 119 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019) promotion to the 2-hole in the Dodger order, slotting him in front of Justin Turner and Bellinger. This looks like a nice opportunity to buy low on Seager.
Honorable mentions: OF (GPP) Shohei Ohtani ($3,900) at CWS (Giolito); 2B/3B Nick Solak ($3,800) at BAL (Bundy); 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3,700) at TB (Brendan McKay); 2B Robinson Cano ($3,800) vs. PHI (Eflin); OF Eloy Jimenez ($4,100) vs. LAA (Peters); OF Khris Davis ($3,600) vs. DET (Turnbull); SS Jean Segura ($3,800) at NYM (Steven Matz); OF Josh Rojas ($3,300) at CIN (Tyler Mahle).
Top Stack: OAK vs DET (Spencer Turnbull)
The Red Sox will be turning to Chacin (10.2% K-BB rate, 5.14 SERA) to give them at least a couple of innings today. Considering he was released by the Brewers and hasn’t pitched in the majors in more than a month, it’s probably fair to say this represents a plus matchup for a Yankees team that’s loaded to the brim with power (.346 team wOBA, 116 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers). The Astros are another team that stands out as they face the lefty Tommy Milone (15.9% K-BB rate, 4.26 SIERA) while their implied total sits in excess of six runs. Both teams have big upside and are great options to stack, but they are very expensive so they come with significant opportunity cost.
A team that is priced a little more affordably are the Oakland Athletics. They get a potentially exploitable matchup with Turnbull (11.6% K-BB rate, 4.84 SIERA). Strictly by the numbers, Turnbull has been noticeably weaker against left-handed hitters, allowing a .360 wOBA with just a 17.7% strikeout rate while right-handed hitters have managed just a .299 wOBA and 24.4% strikeout rate. So Olson (.385 wOBA, 146 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019) in particular stands out here. The rest of the notable bats here are right-handed, but the great thing here is they’ve almost all shown excellent power against right-handed pitchers with ISOs over .200 so they make for a nice upside stack. Marcus Semien (.358 wOBA, 128 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019), Matt Chapman (.358 wOBA, 128 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019), Mark Canha (.407 wOBA, 161 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019), and Ramon Laureano (.360 wOBA, 129 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers in 2019), who is set to return from the IL round out the plus options. Davis is in the middle of a dreadful season, but with his price down at $3,600, he’s a boom/bust value play worth considering given his extensive track record (.374 wOBA, 142 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers last year). Also, if you’re looking for a cheap catcher to consider, keep an eye out for Sean Murphy (.409 wOBA, 136 wRC+ in Triple-A this year). He could be a potential value play at catcher with upside.
Honorable mentions: HOU vs. SEA (Milone); NYY at BOS (Chacin); MIN vs. CLE (Plutko).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.