DraftKings Plays of the Day—9/14

Rich Holman previews the Sept. 14 slate on DraftKings with his must-plays and best values of the day.

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This will cover the 11-game main slate starting at 7:05.

Top Play SP: Zack Greinke, HOU ($9,300) at KC

 

Today’s pitching slate is pretty loaded, and I struggled with who to put as the top play. We have Jacob deGrom ($11,500) facing the Dodgers and Mike Clevinger ($11,800) facing the Twins as the top-end options with tough matchups. Then we have Jack Flaherty ($10,800) going up against the Yelich-less Brewers and Madison Bumgarner ($8,900) against the Marlins as the next tier of aces. All that means to me is we’re going to have a tough time finding quality bats today.

Zack Greinke faces the Royals today, making him my 1A option for cash games. Since August 1st the Royals have an 81 wRC+ against right-handed batters while batting .235. Greinke had struggled some since joining the Astros, until his last start against the Athletics, in which he went six shutout innings while allowing two baserunners and striking out five.

Madison Bumgarner is my 1B option for cash games, as he combines one of the safest matchups with the best ballpark. Bumgarner faces the Marlins, who since August 1st have put up a .319 wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Marlins have also struck out at the second-highest rate (26.4%) over that time. The final part of the equation is this game being in Oracle Park.

Honorable mentiosn: Bumgarner, SF ($8,900) vs. MIA.

 

Value SP: Tyler Glasnow, TB ($5,000) at LAA

 

It’s so nice to see Tyler Glasnow back on the mound. Glasnow has progressed from throwing eight pitches on August 30th to 33 pitches on September 2nd in minor league appearances and then to 41 pitches in his first appearance back with the Rays. Seeing Glasnow at this price seems wrong, but knowing he’s capped at around 50 pitches max keeps our expectations tempered. Keeping that in mind, for cash games, I expect him to easily pay off this price.

Honorable mention: Robert Dugger, MIA ($7,000) at SF.

 

Top Play: OF Wil Myers, SD ($5,100) at COL

 

You ever write a player off too soon and then be surprised that they’re not playing like trash anymore? To be fair, Wil Myers had a triple slash of .223/.311/.389 with a 35.1% strikeout rate through August 28th. From August 29th (I literally just checked to see if it was his birthday) his strikeout rate has decreased to 26.4% and his triple slash is .396/.434/.646.

Myers gets a happy matchup in Coors against Peter Lambert. In 17 starts in the majors this year, Lambert has a 5.42 SIERA and has only struck out 14.2% of the batters he’s faced. If you’re going to minimalize Myers’ biggest weakness, his strikeout rate, then I can’t get away from him in this matchup.

Honorable mentions: OF Ian Desmond, COL ($4,500) vs. SD; OF Tommy Pham, TB ($4,800) at LAA.

 

Top Play: SS Trevor Story, COL ($5,300) vs. SD

 

With the pitching options being pretty decent, finding hitters I want to roster is pretty tough. That being said, I see nothing wrong with going to Coors and picking on Eric Lauer. In nine starts since the All-Star break, Lauer has allowed a 41.5% hard-hit rate, which has led to allowing 10 homers and a 5.16 ERA.

Lauer gets to take those talents to Coors, where the Trevor Story should help increase that hard-hit rate. Story has done his usual “I crush lefties” thing, cranking out a 49.1% hard-hit rate that has led to a .374 wOBA. Take it with a grain of salt, but in 14 plate appearances against Lauer, Story has gone 6/12 with two doubles and two taters.

Honorable mentions: 3B/SS Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,500) at KC; 1B Eric Hosmer, SD ($4,600) at COL.

 

Value: OF Josh VanMeter, CIN ($3,600) at ARI

 

There are some really intriguing plays in the Padres/Rockies matchup in Coorsand by intriguing I mean I haven’t really heard of some of those players, but they’re cheapbut I’ve written enough about that game. Josh VanMeter has led off for the Reds the last two games and followed up a two stolen base performance with a tater in yesterday’s game.

VanMeter is projected to lead off today and will look to keep the ball rolling (or flying out of the park) against Merrill Kelly. Kelly has struggled since the All-Star Break, allowing a 5.86 ERA and has seen his HR/FB% jump from 12.2% in the first half to 23.2% in the second half.

Honorable mentions: OF Yonathan Daza, COL ($2,600) vs. SD; C Austin Hedges, SD ($3,100) at COL. 

 

Top Stack: Rays at Angels (RHP Jaime Barria)

 

The Coors game is the highest projected scoring game according to Vegas, currently holding a 13 total. If you can afford to stack either the Rockies or the Padres, then, by all means, do that. However, I’ve already highlighted several plays from that game, so I wanted to provide you with some other options.

The Rays get a matchup against tater lover, Jaime Barria. In 16 appearances this year (70.1 IP), Barria has allowed 18 bombs and a 6.14 ERA. Things have not gotten better for Barria as the year goes on either, as since the All-Star Break, he’s allowed 33 runs (31 earned) in 41.0 innings pitched.

The Rays not only get an awesome matchup, but they get a park upgrade as well. Barria has struggled against both sides of the plate, so I’m looking to stack Tommy Pham ($4,800), Austin Meadows ($5,600), Eric Sogard ($4,100), Travis d’Arnaud ($4,200), and Avisail Garcia ($4,300). However, if Sogard is out of the lineup, I have no problem with going to Ji-Man Choi ($4,200). Good luck today!

Honorable mentions: White Sox at Mariners (RHP Felix Hernandez); Rangers vs. Athletics (RHP Mike Fiers).

 

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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