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Top Play SP: Trevor Bauer, CIN ($9,100) at SEA
Walker Buehler tops the board today with a 25.2% K-BB% (3.40 SIERA) and he’s also tied with Zac Gallen for the best average CSW among tonight’s starters at 31.7%. But they are both very expensive so we’ll take the steep discount with Trevor Bauer (18.1% K-BB%, 4,21 SIERA, 30.9% CSW). This play isn’t for the faint of heart given his extreme start to start volatility, but tonight’s matchup against the Mariners (.313 team wOBA, 89 wRC+ vs RHP, 29.2% CSW Rate) adds to the appeal. Yes, he has a scary floor but we’ve also seen the ceiling too as he’s cleared 30 DK points in two of his past six turns so I’d be willing to chase the upside here given the big discount off of Gallen and Buehler.
If you’d rather avoid Bauer another great option tonight at a very similar price point is Max Fried, who is coming off of two excellent starts—his last time out against the Nationals where he posted 9 K’s (34.4% CSW) and the turn prior against the White Sox where he tallied 11 K’s (40% CSW). He’ll face the Phillies tonight (.327 wOBA, 99 wRC vs LHP, 28.9% CSW Rate).
Honorable mention: Fried, ATL ($8,900) at PHI (Jason Vargas); Lynn, TEX ($10,500) vs TB.
Value SP: Justus Sheffield, SEA ($7,600) vs CIN
There are a couple of options that I think should garner some interest today, in Chase Anderson (13% K-BB%, 4.80 SIERA, 26.5% CSW) who gets the easy Marlins matchup. But considering the lack of K upside (he hasn’t exceeded 5 Ks in a start since 7/22) and that he very rarely goes deep into games (he’s been held to under 80 pitches in three of his last 4 starts), I’d want to look elsewhere. Nathan Eovaldi (11.8% K-BB%, 4.79 SIERA, 29.5% CSW) is the other interesting name but given the recent price hike from $5,800 to $7,300 and the fact that he has seemingly plateaued at around 80 pitches, I’m just not fully convinced there either. Which brings us to the former Yankee Justus Sheffield (11.4% K-BB%, 4.69 SIERA), who was effective in his last start netting 7 Ks (36.3% CSW) across five innings against the Cubs. He, similar to Bauer, is far from a safe option (11.4% walk rate), but given that he’s shown some good strikeout ability and a matchup against a light-hitting Reds team (.314 team wOBA, 89 wRC+ vs LHP, and 28.1% CSW rate), I’d be willing to take a chance here.
Honorable mention: Nathan Eovaldi, BOS ($7,300) at TOR (Zeuch).
Top Play: OF J.D. Martinez, BOS ($4,900) at TOR
T.J. Zeuch showed off some decidedly underwhelming numbers in AAA this year (11.6% K rate, 5.38 xFIP). Point being, we should expect Boston to score some runs today. J.D. Martinez (.391 wOBA, 144 wRC+ vs RHP 2018-19) just seems a little too cheap here and comes at a nice discount relative to the other big Boston bats in Mookie Betts ($5,400), Xander Bogaerts ($5,200) and Rafael Devers ($5,200).
Honorable mentions: OF Michael Brantley ($4, 100) vs HOU (Tanner Roark); OF A.J. Pollock ($4,700) at BAL (Blach); OF Eddie Rosario ($4,400) vs WAS (Anibal Sanchez); 2B Ryan McMahon ($4,700) vs STL (Michael Wacha); 1B Anthony Rizzo ($4,500) at SD (Ronald Bolanos).
Top Play: SS Trevor Story, COL ($5,400) vs STL
Michael Wacha (9.3% K-BB%, 5.06 SIERA, and 24.7% CSW) traveling to Coors Field presents a great buying opportunity for Rockies bats. Wacha has shown strong reverse splits for quite some time now and that’s held true this year as he’s surrendered a .380 wOBA to opposing RHB (.342 to LHB). This lines up well on paper for Trevor Story who has hit RHP to the tune of a .375 wOBA and 116 wRC+ this year.
Honorable mentions: 3B Nolan Arenado ($5,300) vs STL (Michael Wacha); OF Charlie Blackmon ($5,500) vs STL (Michael Wacha); 3B Rafael Devers ($5,200) at TOR (T.J. Zeuch); OF Yordan Alvarez ($5,100) vs. OAK (Tanner Roark).
Value: OF Franmil Reyes, CLE ($4,000) at LAA
Opposing LHP Jose Suarez (10.5% K-BB%, 5.05 SIERA, 27% CSW) has allowed a whopping .423 wOBA and .277 ISO to go along with a weak 16.1% K rate to RHB. This lines up really well for Franmil Reyes who has had big success against lefties this year evidenced by a .466 xwOBA.
Also, keep an eye out on the Rockies lineup for either Samuel Hilliard or Raimel Tapia, as either one could provide some cheap exposure to the Coors game at sub $4,000 price tags.
Honorable mentions: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr (GPP) ($3,900) vs BOS (Eovaldi); OF Hunter Renfroe (GPP) ($3,700) vs CHC (Jose Quintana); OF Justin Upton ($3,900) vs. CLE (Plesac); OF Samuel Hilliard ($3,800) vs.STL (Wacha); OF Raimel Tapia ($3,800) vs STL (Wacha).
Top Stack: STL at COL (Chi Chi Gonzalez)
The Cardinals easily have the highest implied team total of the slate, currently in excess of seven runs. It’s hard to argue given the circumstances as they’ll be set to face the RHP Chi Chi Gonzalez (-1% K-BB%, 6.45 SIERA, and 23.1% CSW). Yes, that’s not a typo. Gonzalez is indeed rocking a negative K-BB%. This might be a problem at Coors. By the splits, Gonzalez has been a little more giving to LHB, allowing a .417 wOBA and .254 ISO. Though, he’s far from good against righties, ceding a .337 wOBA to opposing RHB. I don’t think anyone is ever to excited to roster Dexter Fowler (.330 wOBA, 105 wRC+ vs RHP 2019), but as the projected leadoff man, he definitely deserves consideration at $4,500. The other options here are highlighted by Kolten Wong (.339 wOBA, 112 wRC vs RHP 2019), Marcell Ozuna (.360 wOBA, 124 wRC+), Paul Goldschmidt (.331 wOBA, 105 wRC+) and Paul deJong (.330 wOBA, 105 wRC+). Matt Carpenter (.309 wOBA, 91 wRC+) has had an awful 2019, but given the impending date at Coors, he’s certainly also an option to consider if he cracks the lineup. Tommy Edman (.298 wOBA, 84 wRC) is oddly enough the most expensive ($5,400) Cardinal bat on the board and at face value seems like the easiest fade of the bunch.
Honorable mentions: BOS at TOR (Zeuch); ATL at PHI (Vargas); COL vs STL (Wacha).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.