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Top Play SP: Trevor Bauer, CIN ($11,700) vs. SD
This is really the top play by default. Trevor Bauer is the only top-end starting pitcher, and thankfully, he has a decent matchup. In the second half, the Padres have the fifth-highest strikeout rate at 26.3% against right-handed pitching. They also have the 20th-best wRC+ against righties. Bauer has been extremely frustrating recently, going seven innings pitched, allowing one earned run with 11 strikeouts against the Cubs and following it up by allowing nine earned runs against the Nationals. Fingers crossed for the good Bauer today.
Value SP: John Means, BAL ($6,400) vs. KC
John Means has had the following opponents over his past four starts: Yankees, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Red Sox. Once he saw his next start was against the Royals, I imagine he breathed a sigh of relief. The Royals have been brutal in the second half, putting up the eighth-worst wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. For what it’s worth, there’s a decent chance I’m playing two value pitchers tomorrow so I can fit in the big bats.
Top Play: OF Max Kepler, MIN ($4,600) vs. CHW
Ivan Nova has had one of the greatest runs of his career. In his past five starts, Nova has gone 37 innings, allowing just two earned runs, including two complete games against the Marlins and the Astros. However, during that period, he has just a 12.6% strikeout rate and a 5.13 SIERA. Regression is coming, and the Twins have just the lineup to light him up. Leading off for the Twins is Max Kepler, who has put up a .285 ISO and .366 wOBA against righties this year.
Top Play: 3B/SS Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,300) vs. DET
To me, the Twins and Astros have the best matchups on today’s slate. The Astros face Edwin Jackson, who has a 5.52 SIERA this year, followed by the Tigers bullpen, which has a 5.10 ERA in the second half. Alex Bregman has a .260 ISO and .403 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year. He also has a -6.3% K-BB% against righties—that’s a 12.1% strikeout rate versus an 18.4% walk rate.
Value: OF Trent Grisham, MIL ($3,500) at STL
Trent Grisham has been up with the Brewers since Aug. 1, and he’s already earned his way into being their leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching. Grisham has a .242 ISO and .366 wOBA in 38 plate appearances against righties after tearing up Triple-A (.381/.471/.776). Today, he faces Dakota Hudson, who is fresh off six shutout innings against the Royals. However, despite ripping up the Royals, Hudson has a 4.99 SIERA to go along with his 3.82 ERA. The Brewers currently have just a 4.5 implied run total, which is way too low in my opinion.
Honorable mention: 2B/3B Mike Moustakas, MIL ($4,000) at STL; 1B C.J. Cron, MIN ($3,900) vs. CHW.
Top Stack: Twins vs. White Sox (RHP Ivan Nova)
The main reason I give the nod to the Twins as the top stack is solely because of price. The Astros’ top seven hitters are all priced above $5,000, making stacking them all but impossible. The Twins, on the other hand, have just as nice a matchup, facing Nova (see Kepler’s writeup for the Nova details). After starting my stack with Kepler, I’m looking to Polanco ($4,600), Miguel Sano ($5,000), Eddie Rosario ($4,800), and Luis Arraez ($4,200), but I also like Cron ($3,900) if you need to save a little money. Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Astros vs. Tigers (RHP Jackson); Brewers at Cardinals (RHP Hudson).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.