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Top Play SP: Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,500) vs. OAK
There are four pitchers priced above $10,000 today and all of them are in decent spots, but Gerrit Cole is a man among boys on today’s slate. Not only does he lead the slate in strikeout rate, he leads the league at 37.5%. The only issue he’s had this year, as has the rest of the league, is allowing bombs. His 20.8% HR/FB rate is the highest of his career, and his opponent, the Athletics, are known for their taters. Cole will have to get through power bats Khris Davis and Matt Olson, but his strikeout upside should prevail on this slate today.
Value SP: Alec Mills ($6,900) at SF
The values on this slate are definitely lacking, so I’m going to Oracle Park to pick on the Giants with Alec Mills. With Mills, the pros definitely outweigh the cons. In his first start this year, Mills struck out six Reds over six innings, and now he gets both a matchup and a park upgrade. The main con is that he projects as a JAG (just a guy) who has above-average control. The long-term upside is relatively limited, but I’m only worried about today, so carpe diem.
Top Play: OF Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5,000) at WAS
What? Recommending a Rockie outside of Coors? Have I lost my mind? The Rockies have a matchup against Eric Fedde, and as Nick always says, don’t trust the “Feds.” Fedde currently sports an amazingly bad 5.59 SIERA, which is supported by his 12.6% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate. Charlie Blackmon has crushed righties this year, turning in a .294 ISO and .422 wOBA. The only caution I submit with this play is to keep an eye on the weather in Washington today, as there’s currently a chance of rain pretty much all day.
Top Play: 2B/OF Ketel Marte, ARI ($5,200) vs. BAL
I’m really looking forward to picking on Aaron Brooks and the Orioles bullpen today. Brooks is just a guy but is a significant upgrade on most of the Orioles rotation. Ketel Marte is my favorite bat in the Diamondbacks lineup, and at his price, he should come pretty low-owned. Don’t try and short-change the All-Star; Marte has a .241 ISO and .397 wOBA against right-handed pitching, while striking out just 14.4% of the time. Being a switch-hitter also benefits Marte, so when the Orioles go to the bullpen, he doesn’t lose the advantage when they bring in a lefty to face him.
Value: 2B/OF Robel Garcia, CHC ($3,700) at SF
Robel Garcia got called up for the Cubs on July 3 and has hit the ground running. In his 30 plate appearances since getting the call, he’s slashed .333/.367/.889, with an unfortunate strikeout rate of 40%. The good news is Garcia faces Shaun Anderson today, who has a strikeout rate of just 14.4%. Bonus news: That strikeout rate dips down to 11.4% against left-handed batters. Just keep an eye on the lineup to make sure he’s starting today, but I love this value.
Top Stack: Yankees at Twins (LHP Martin Perez)
For the record, if the game plays, I’m all about stacking the Rockies against Eric Fedde or the Nationals against Peter Lambert, but I wanted to avoid the rain for this pick. The Yankees face Martin Perez, and DraftKings is being kind to us as no Yankee bat in the projected lineup is priced above $4,900. Perez’s form over the past nine games has not been fantastic, allowing at least four runs in six of those games. I’ll be looking to stack the top of the lineup with DJ LeMahieu ($4,800), Judge ($4,900), Gary Sanchez ($4,500), and Edwin Encarnacion ($4,900) being my top targets. After them, I’d look to add Gleyber Torres ($4,300) because he’ll fill a premium position. Good luck today.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.