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Top Play SP: Blake Snell, TB ($9,800) at BOS
Cy Snell leads today’s slate with a sensational 27.7% K-BB%. His absurd 19.7% swinging K rate is also first by a mile. And yet he’s just the 4th most expensive pitcher of the slate behind the likes of Ray, Odorizzi, and Bieber. This is also the cheapest price point we’ve seen for Snell since way back on the 6th of May when he was $9,700. He’s at Boston here so I get that it’s not the most idyllic of matchups but the discount more than makes up for it. I think Snell has the highest floor/ceiling combination in terms of strikeout ability on today’s 10 game slate and it’s not particularly close. Also, keep in mind J.D. Martinez missed both games of yesterday’s doubleheader with a back ailment so his absence would certainly provide a lift here.
Value SP: Max Fried, ATL ($7,100) at MIA
Max Fried is coming off two duds by the hands of the Pirates and the Nationals but today looks like a great opportunity to bank on a bounce-back performance aided by a trip to Miami and the Marlin’s league-worst .279 team wOBA. Keep in mind that this is the cheapest price point we’ve seen for Fried and that this will be the Marlins first time seeing him this year. The Braves are a decent road favorite here (-134) against the Marlins who as per usual have an uninspiring 3 and a half run implied team total.
OF: Michael Conforto, NYM ($4,600) vs. COL
The Mets are an interesting team to consider. I’m not sure they have enough firepower to pay off as a full-on stack in tournaments. But there are at least a couple of interesting power upside options here in the rookie Pete Alonso ($5,000) and his teammate the Righty masher Michael Conforto. We’ll focus on Conforto here as he holds the platoon advantage but Alonso is always worth considering in tournaments. The Mets will face the Rockie righty Jeff Hoffman who so far this year in just 21 innings has shown next to no ability to control batted balls evidenced by a .387 xwOBA, 12.3% barrel rate, and .313 expected batting average against. So not good, now granted three of his fours starts have come at Colorado so we have to take note of that but regardless of today’s near sea-level setting Hoffman to me profiles as a well-below-average arm that presents a great matchup for the talented Conforto.
OF: Nelson Cruz, MIN ($4,400) at DET
Just behind the Brewers, the Twins are second on the slate with a robust team total currently in excess of 5 and a half runs. They are set to face off against the lefty Ryan Carpenter. Carpenter has only thrown 26 innings thus far in 2019 so it’s not a great sample size but what we have shows a well below average arm with a K rate of just under 16% and an xwOBA of .375 along with an elevated WHIP of 1.35. The veteran Nelson Cruz will hold the platoon advantage here and he should be in the thick of things hitting in the middle of a surging Twins offense that leads the league in team wOBA at .356.
Value: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($3,400) vs ARI
I know, I know I don’t really enjoy picking on guys with 30% K rates like Robbie Ray in this case. But I look at this as an opportunity to buy low on a really special talent in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Inefficiency has continued to plague Ray this year as his walk rate sits at 12% so there’s also a pretty decent chance the young Vlad will have a chance to do some damage with runners on.
Top Stack: MIN at DET (LHP Ryan Carpenter)
The Twins currently lead the slate with an implied total nearing six runs. As we mentioned earlier with Cruz, the Twin will face the lefty Carpenter here on the road in Detroit. The Twins have plenty of capable Right-handed hitters in addition to the aforementioned Cruz that will look to take advantage of this favorable matchup including Jorge Polanco ($5,100), C.J. Cron ($4,700), Marwin Gonzalez ($3,900), Miguel Sano ($4,600) and Byron Buxton ($4,700) whose power/speed combination is always a big threat in GPPs.
Honorable Mention: MIL vs. PIT (Steven Brault).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.