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Top SP: Chris Sale, BOS ($10,600) at KC
While Sale still carries an inflated ERA for the year, it’s clear that he’s still an elite starting pitcher option. Sale has a 34.3% strikeout rate with a 3.05 SIERA and a 2.91 deserved run average on the season; over the past month, he’s got a 3.34 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP. Sale really deserves to be the most expensive starter on the slate, so he’s a stellar pick in this matchup against the Royals. Kansas City has been awful against lefties, as they’ve got just a .283 wOBA versus southpaws this year, which is third-worst in baseball. No other starters possess the same level of upside that Sale brings, and his floor is also quite high against a cupcake opponent.
Value SP: Yu Darvish, CHC ($7,100) vs. COL
Darvish is still battling inconsistencies, but he’s managed two quality starts in his past three outings. Darvish can rack up points through strikeouts, as he’s got a 26.6% strikeout rate. At an incredibly low price, Darvish is absolutely worth taking a chance on against the Rockies. Colorado is awful on the road, with a poor .287 wOBA away from Coors Field. Additionally, they’ve got a 26.9% strikeout rate on the road, giving Darvish even more strikeout potential. Look to Darvish in GPP tournaments as a low-price, high-upside play.
Lowe has punished right-handed pitching this season, posting a 136 wRC+. Whether he’s batting second or third in the Rays lineup, Lowe will be in a nice spot to accrue counting stats, as Tampa’s lineup is strong against righties. Opposing starter Spencer Turnbull may not immediately look like someone to target, but a 3.80 FIP and a 4.39 SIERA show that he should still have regression on the way. Lowe is an affordable option at a very weak position.
Ohtani has yet to produce much this season, but he’s still played only 23 games since returning from injury, so I’m confident that he’ll be able to turn things around. Today is a perfect opportunity against Daniel Mengden, who has 14 walks to 19 strikeouts on the season. As the Angels’ No. 3 hitter behind Mike Trout, Ohtani is in a spot where he can drive in some runs. There’s more upside here than you might think, as Ohtani posted 22 homers and 10 steals in limited playing time last year.
Value: 1B Matt Olson, OAK ($3,800) at LAA (RHP Felix Pena)
This play is all about the power upside, as Olson already has seven homers in the past month since being activated from the IL. While Angels starter Felix Pena has been solid, his 1.44 HR/9 shows that he’s been susceptible to the long ball. There aren’t many No. 3 hitters who you’ll find for such a low price and especially not with Olson’s power. Consider him in GPP contests, where his boom-or-bust profile plays best.
Lineup Stack: White Sox at Nationals (RHP Anibal Sanchez)
Anibal Sanchez has been a mess for the Nationals, posting a 4.47 ERA with an 11.8% walk rate. There are lots of cheap White Sox hitters you can take advantage of, including Leury Garcia ($4,200) out of the leadoff spot and Eloy Jimenez ($3,400) as a power flier. Jose Abreu ($4,500) and Yoan Moncada ($4,600) are worthwhile high-end hitters. A White Sox stack shouldn’t be hard to put together and can pay off nicely.
Honorable Mentions: Rays at Tigers (Turnbull); Nationals vs. White Sox (Covey).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).