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Top Play SP: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($10,400) at ARI
I’m not going to lie to you, this makes me a little nervous. Don’t get me wrong, Clayton Kershaw has been fantastic, with his 2.85 ERA and his 4.5% walk rate, but so have the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks’ wRC+ against left-handed pitchers is 121, which ranks fourth, and they strikeout at just a 20.5% clip. It does help that the Diamondbacks are tied for the lowest implied run total on today’s slate.
Honorable mention: Jon Gray, COL ($9,800) at SF.
Value SP: Adam Plutko, CLE ($6,900) vs. KC
In his five starts this year, Adam Plutko has done some impressive things (2.7% walk rate) and some not-so-impressive things (20.9% HR/FB rate). The good news is Plutko’s opponent, the Royals, rank just 26th in HR/FB% against right-handed pitching. I think I’m locking in Plutko as my SP2. Strategy wise, I might end up playing Plutko and Eduardo Rodriguez so I can pay up for some bats tonight.
Honorable mention: Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS ($8,700) vs. CHW.
Top Play: OF Ronald Acuna, ATL ($4,800) vs. CHC
This play, along with all Braves and Cubs bats are being recommended first and foremost on the 16 mph wind that’s currently forecast to be blowing out to center field. Ronald Acuna thrives against left-handed pitching. For the season, he has a 55.3% hard-hit rate, which has led to a .297 ISO and .436 wOBA against southpaws. Acuna faces Jon Lester, who has allowed a 42.5% hard-hit rate to righties, along with a .215 ISO. If the wind blowing out sticks, I expect both the Cubs and Braves to be pretty popular, but at their prices and potential, I don’t think I can avoid the chalk tonight.
Top Play: SS Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4,900) vs. KC
Francisco Lindor has been one of the few bright spots for the Indians offense this year. Against right-handed pitchers, Lindor has a .243 ISO and .389 wOBA, which comes as a result of his 48.4% hard-hit rate. In Lindor, you also get a a power/speed combo, as he’s been successful on 11 out of 12 stolen base attempts this year. The Indians face Brad Keller, who hasn’t been fantastic. Keller has a 5.41 SIERA and has allowed an 11.4% walk rate so far this year. Keller is a ground-ball pitcher and has done a really good job of suppressing homers, allowing just 13 in 237.1 innings pitched between 2018 and 2019. So while I don’t expect Keller to go out and allow four taters, he will be relying on the BABIP and left-on-base gods, which could lead to a lot of crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
Value: 3B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., TOR ($3,600) at NYY
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has remained cheap on DraftKings since his call-up, and I’m pretty sure I’ve placed him in this section every time I’ve written an article. Today, Vlad gets a matchup with crafty veteran lefty C.C. Sabathia, who’s struggled with allowing hard contact this year (42.5%). Sabathia has gotten hit pretty hard by right-handed batters, allowing a .281 ISO and .386 wOBA. Vlad should have a decent day here in Yankee Stadium, and this price is just way too cheap for some with his upside.
Top Stack: Cubs vs. Braves (RHP Julio Teheran)
I waited as long as I could to write this one so I could have the most up to date forecast for today. It’s official, 15 mph winds will be blowing out to center today. That makes this game a full stack, but if I had to pick a side, I’m rolling with the Cubs against Julio Teheran. Teheran actually has a 3.40 ERA, but that number is not supported by his 5.10 SIERA. He’s allowed a 40.4% hard-hit rate while walking 11.9% of the batters he’s faced. The BABIP gods have been on his side though, as he has the seventh-lowest BABIP among qualified starters at .245. I really like the Cubs from top to bottom, but my favorites are Anthony Rizzo ($4,600), Kris Bryant ($4,500), Kyle Schwarber ($3,900), Javier Baez ($4,300), and Wilson Contreras ($4,500). If you need to go cheap, take a look at Schwarber, Jason Heyward ($3,500), and Carlos Gonzalez ($2,700). Good luck today!
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.