DraftKings Plays of the Day—6/14
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Top Play SP: Gerrit Cole, HOU ($11,900) vs. TOR
Happy Friday everyone! We’ve got a full 15-game slate to pick from, so we are anything but want of options to choose from tonight. Looking solely at this year’s tallies, Gerrit Cole leads the slate (excluding Andrew Heaney’s 16.2 innings) with an eye-popping K-BB% of 32.6 and 38.6. For those keeping score that amounts to 130 K’s across 84.2 innings. Simply absurd numbers. Max Scherzer is runner-up tonight with a 28.3 K-BB%. Now, Scherzer is a fantastic choice too, but we’re going to roll with Cole and the Astros, who are tonight’s biggest favorites currently sitting at -260. They’ll get the Blue Jays, who have been a pretty dreadful team offensively all year with a 24.9% strikeout rate (sixth-worst) and a .284 team wOBA. Like you might suspect, the Jays also have the night’s lowest implied team total at just three runs.
Value SP: Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS ($8,000) at BAL
Eduardo Rodriguez and the Red Sox are among the bigger favorites of the evening (currently -195). Rodriguez is never a comforting roster for the faint of heart given his start to start volatility, but there is solid value in the price considering the underlying skills are strong (30.1% CSW, 25.7% strikeout rate, 18.7 K-BB%) and he’s also shown success against this same team earlier this year (6.2 IP, 8 K’s, 2 earned runs).
Honorable Mention: Tyler Mahle, CIN ($6,700) vs. TEX (Jesse Chavez).
3B/SS: Manny Machado, SD ($4,300) at COL
Hitting .240 with a .725 OPS Manny Machado has been a disappointment in his first season with the Friars, but considering tonight’s circumstances and cheap price point, this seems like a pretty clear time to buy. Speaking of that price point, it’s very odd to see five other Padres bats priced ahead of Machado especially Josh Naylor ($4,500). I have to say I wasn’t expecting that. The Padres will be set to go against Jeff Hoffman at Coors Field. Through 25.2 innings this year, Hoffman has shown a .295 expected batting average against, .550 expected slugging, and a 12.7% barrel rate. All of which represent marks in the bottom 6% of the league or worse. And he’s pitching at Coors today, so you’d be hard-pressed to find a better matchup for bats.
Honorable Mention: Khris Davis ($4, 100) vs SEA (Marco Gonzales).
OF: J.D. Martinez, BOS ($5,000) at BAL
As of this writing, the Orioles have yet to announce an official starter for tomorrow’s contest against the Red Sox. We know the Orioles have just about the worst pitching staff in baseball. Their team ERA of 5.52 is the worst, followed by the Mariners at 5.33. They’ve also allowed the most home runs with 129, second to the Mariners who have allowed 124 in about 35 fewer innings too. They are also tied with the Royals for the lowest team K-BB% at 10.4. Chances are whoever is tabbed shouldn’t present too much of a challenge for one of the best all-around hitters in all of baseball in J.D. Martinez. His surface numbers haven’t been quite as eye-catching as last year but the batted-ball data remains superlative (.326 xBA, .434 xwOBA), so chances are, we see some better results to come and what better place for that than a trip to Camden Yards.
Honorable Mention: SS Francisco Lindor, ($5,200) at DET (Ryan Carpenter).
Value: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($3,900) at NYM
The WHIP is a little a bit ugly at 1.37, but otherwise, Steven Matz hasn’t been that bad by any means so far this year with a very respectable 16.9 K-BB% (24.2% strikeout rate) through 62.2 innings. But this is all about buying low on a hitter who has had a remarkable track record of success. He’s too talented to be priced the same as guys like Jorge Alfaro and Yangervis Solarte. And he’ll get the platoon advantage here against the southpaw Matz.
Honorable Mention: 3B Jose Ramirez, ($3,500) at DET (Ryan Carpenter).
Top Stack: Red Sox at BAL (TBD)
For reasons we mentioned earlier with J.D. Martinez, the Red Sox lineup should be set up for success today on the road at a great hitters’ park in Camden Yards facing off against a beleaguered pitching staff bereft of plus talent. The Red Sox are a costly stack as all of their big bats cost upwards of $5,000, but the likes of Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, and Andrew Benintendi provide a lot of upside as one of the best lineups in baseball. Boston has one of the higher implied totals of the slate at more than 5.5 runs. Although they are expensive, they are just a little cheaper than the Rockies who will likely have the highest team total for tomorrow and thus command a good amount of ownership as they face off against the Padre rookie Cal Quantrill at Coors.
Honorable Mention: SD at COL (Jeff Hoffman).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.