DraftKings Plays of the Day – 4/13

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Please note, this article is being written for the all-day slate that starts Saturday at 1:05 PM.

 

Top Play SP: Zach Eflin, PHI ($9,100) @ MIA

 

The beginning of the season has been extremely impressive for Zach Eflin. In his first two starts, he’s shut down the Nationals and Twins, while having an increased K%, decreased BB%, and a 2.83 SIERA. Our own Michael Ajeto wrote an awesome deep dive into Eflin potentially taking the next step, and it’s a must-read. Eflin gets an ideal match-up with the Marlins in Marlins Park, and at this price, you can afford to pay up for the big bats.

Honorable mention: Blake Snell, TBR ($10,700) @ TOR.

 

Value SP: Kyle Freeland, COL ($8,200) @ SFG

 

Earlier in the week I recommended Kyle Freeland in Coors versus the Braves, and that did not go well, so I apologize. So naturally, I’m going right back to the well. Freeland gets the ultimate match-up facing the Giants in San Francisco, where the Giants currently have a 3.7 implied run total. The Giants will have only one batter with an ISO greater than .200 versus left-handed pitchers, and that’s the newly acquired Kevin Pillar. While I fully expect Freeland to be chalky, he’s a must play in cash games at this price.

Honorable mention: Michael Pineda, MIN ($7,800) vs. DET.

 

Top Play: OF Ronald Acuña, ATL ($5,300) vs. NYM

 

The New York Mets will be rolling out Jason Vargas, and thus far into the season, no one has let them know that he is not fantastic. In 2018 and 2019, Vargas has allowed a .372 wOBA and .239 ISO to right-handed hitters, as well as a .337 wOBA and 9.8% BB% to lefties. This puts the entire Braves lineup in play for me, but I just love Ronald Acuña. Against left-handed pitchers, Acuña has a .399 wOBA and .279 ISO since his major league debut and adds a 10.7% walk rate to boot. The Braves moved Acuña to the four-spot in the lineup this year and so far, he’s thrived in the role, putting up a .435 wOBA and a .405 ISO. Overall, Acuña is pricey, but he’s a must-start for me today.

Honorable mention: OF Mookie Betts, BOS ($5,300) vs. BAL, Michael Brantley, HOU ($4,100) @ SEA.

 

Top Play: 3B Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($4,300) vs. STL

 

The weather in the Reds/Cardinals game is ideal hitting weather89 degrees with wind blowing out to center at 16 miles per hour. Oh, and add on top of that the Reds get to face Adam Wainwright. That combo of weather and match-up is the perfect storm for lots of runs scored. At the heart of that Reds lineup is my boy, Eugenio Suarez. Suarez has picked up right where he left off last year, sporting a 57.1% hard-hit rate, which has lead to a .422 wOBA. I really like the Reds as a sneaky, cheaper stack, as Suarez is the highest priced batter in the Reds lineup.

Honorable mention: 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4,500) vs. LAA, SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4,400) vs. BAL

 

Value: SS Elvis Andrus, TEX ($4,200) vs. OAK

 

Keep an eye on the weather in the Rangers/Athletics game, as its currently forecasted to rain most of the day and maybe creep into the start of this game. While it is supposed to only be in the mid-50s, there will be a strong 20 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field. On the mound for the Athletics, we have the right-handed pitcher, Marco Estrada, who for his career has reverse splits and gets hit much harder by righties. Elvis Andrus will look to follow up his Friday night performance in which he had a “combo meal”; smashing a three-run homer and stealing a base.

Honorable mention: 3B/OF Johan Camargo, ATL ($3,800) vs. NYM, 2B Brandon Lowe, TBR ($3,900) @ TOR.

 

Top Stack: Braves vs. Mets (LHP Jason Vargas)

 

In 2018, the Braves ranked as the fourth best team in wOBA against left-handed pitching, and their projected lineup on Saturday will feature six batters that had at least a .200 ISO versus lefties. Their lineup also includes my favorite catcher play of the day in Tyler Flowers, who is currently raking and had a .258 ISO and .479 wOBA versus lefties last year. Switch hitters Ozzie Albies and Johan Camargo do most of their damage against left-handed pitching, and even lefty Freddie Freeman hits lefties well.

Honorable mention: Reds vs. Cardinals (RHP Adam Wainwright), Red Sox vs. Orioles (RHP Andrew Cashner)

 

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.

Rich Holman

Tax Auditor by day (I promise I'm not the devil), dad to twin velociraptors by night. Complete sports junkie. Philly fan that only boos occasionally.

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