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Top SP: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($11,800) at MIA
You won’t be surprised by this pick if you read yesterday’s post, as Kershaw was the top starter before getting his outing pushed back to tonight. Kershaw is still facing the lowly Marlins lineup, so he’s still easily the best starting pitcher on the slate. He is undoubtedly matchup-proof, with a 3.37 FIP and a 3.12 deserved run average this year, so his floor is extremely high against the Marlins. Miami has just a .292 wOBA versus left-handed pitching, which is third-lowest in baseball, so feel confident firing up Kershaw in cash games as he goes for his seventh consecutive quality start.
Honorable mentions: Shane Bieber ($11,000) vs. BOS; Stephen Strasburg ($10,600) vs. CIN.
Value SP: J.A. Happ, NYY ($7,100) vs. BAL
Happ has been pretty bad lately. But the Orioles hardly even resemble a big league squad right now, so everybody is in play against them. Today’s pitching slate is quite weak outside of the high-end options. but there’s hope for Happ against a lineup that’s bottom-five against southpaws with their .304 wOBA. There’s definitely risk in rolling with a starter with a 5.48 ERA, but this could work as a cheap GPP tournament flier.
Honorable mentions: Dallas Keuchel ($6,800) vs. NYM; Cal Quantrill ($7,300) vs. TB.
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR ($4,000) vs. TEX (LHP Kolby Allard)
It’s difficult to understand why Guerrero is so affordable, considering he’s been one of the hottest hitters in the league over the past two weeks, batting .373 with an 1.124 OPS. Vladdy is in an extremely hitter-friendly park at home in Toronto against Allard, who is making just his second start of the season. An inexperienced starter such as Allard is prone to implosions, which would mean a big performance from the Blue Jays lineup.
Honorable mentions: SS Didi Gregorius ($4,100) vs. BAL (RHP Dylan Bundy); 2B/3B Tommy Edman ($4,200) vs. KC (RHP Brad Keller).
OF Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($4,300) vs. PIT (RHP Chris Archer)
Pirates starter Chris Archer is an easy target tonight, with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.98 HR/9. Ohtani is on a 30/20 pace in half a season’s games, so it’s easy to see why his upside is so high in this matchup. Ohtani has a .902 OPS against right-handed pitching, and he’s in a great spot to rack up counting stats batting third for the Angels.
Honorable mentions: OF Alex Gordon ($4,000) vs. STL (RHP Dakota Hudson); OF Kole Calhoun ($4,000) vs. PIT (Archer).
Value Batter: 1B Jose Abreu, CWS ($3,900) vs. HOU (LHP Wade Miley)
It’s impressive what the Astros have done with Wade Miley, but unfortunately, it still looks incredibly unsustainable. Miley has far outperformed his FIP of 4.43 and is getting by with just a 20.5% strikeout rate, which shouldn’t last much longer. Abreu has been mashing left-handed pitching this year, with a 149 wRC+, and has a lot of power upside at such a low cost.
Honorable mentions: SS Jean Segura ($3,900) vs. CHC (LHP Cole Hamels); 1B Miguel Cabrera ($3,600) vs. SEA (LHP Marco Gonzales); 2B Rougned Odor ($3,600) at TOR (RHP Sean Reid-Foley).
Lineup Stack: Mariners at Tigers (RHP Edwin Jackson)
The Mariners offense has been cold lately, but it’s easy to see them turning things around against Edwin Jackson, who does not belong in the bigs. Jackson has an abysmal 9.35 ERA in 34.2 innings this season, and you should be able to afford almost any bat you want against him, as nearly every Mariners hitter is a buy-low. Mallex Smith ($4,200) out of the leadoff spot and Domingo Santana ($4,400) should be your top targets, and Kyle Seager ($4,000) is coming off of a three-homer night.
Honorable mentions: Angels vs. Pirates (Archer); White Sox vs. Astros (Miley).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).