Happy Memorial Day weekend, and welcome to the Saturday edition of the DFS Primer! As I have done in my previous DFS articles, I will share a table displaying rankings of the pitchers on today’s main slate using six metrics. Here are those metrics.
1) Barrel rate allowed.
2) Percent hard-hit contact allowed.
3) Expected wOBA allowed.
4) Expected ERA.
5) Flyball to groundball ratio.
6) Strike out to bases on ball ratio.
Using such analysis has helped me identify the top pitcher on most days. For example, Zach Eflin was at sub 5% ownership last Sunday and broke the slate. That is how you separate yourself from the pack: play a pitcher at a reasonable price but is low owned so that you can pay up for a high-quality stack. Of course, you need that pitcher to get you 6-7 solid innings with near double-digit Ks. So who will be that guy today? Check out the tables below.
There are two tables since the main slate looks quite different for DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, the main slate starts at 4:15 PM PT and includes the three late games, which all start after 7 PM PT. However, FanDuel decided to start its main slate at 1:07 PM PT and not include the last three games of the night. Strange how both sites are not in lockstep with the main slate, so roster construction will look quite different.
Yet, we can achieve some consistency with our lineups. For example, Zach Eflin is the top-ranked pitcher for both tables. I believe he can repeat his amazing performance from last Sunday, given that Citi Field is the ultimate pitcher’s park. True, the Mets can hit, but Eflin shut down the Dodgers in his last start, arguably the best offense in baseball. Eflin’s price is reasonable, and you will get him at low ownership. Remember, game theory reigns supreme when playing DFS.
We can also roster the Dodgers on the main slate for both sites. On a bad day, the Dodgers will still get you 5-6 runs like they did last night. On a good day, they just keep scoring runs, as we saw two nights ago when the Dodgers were already up 10-1 after the 6th inning and added two more runs in the 8th and another two runs in the 9th. Fading the Dodgers can be a dangerous proposition. Definitely get Betts in there, and you can be creative by selecting players at the bottom of the lineup, such as Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux, as a nice wraparound stack. That way, Betts can drive them home and help you rise to the top of the leaderboard.
Of course, we need to differentiate our lineups since LA will be popular. On FanDuel, consider a combination of A’s and Rangers bats. Both the A’s and Rangers starting pitchers are awful and give up an obscenely high barrel rate. On DraftKings, go with Seattle. Jose Urquidy of the Astros is overrated, as indicated by his expected ERA and wOBA on Statcast. Seattle got to Verlander last night, and they can get to Urquidy today.
Here are some sample lineups.
DraftKings
P: T. Gonsolin
P: Z. Eflin
C: C. Raleigh
1B: T. France
2B: G. Lux
3B: E. Suarez
SS: T. Turner
OF: M. Betts
OF: A. Frazier
OF: J. Winker
FanDuel #1
P: Z. Eflin
C/1B: J. Heim
2B: G. Lux
3B: J. Turner
SS: C. Seager
OF: M. Betts
OF: A. Garcia
OF: K. Calhoun
UTIL: T. Turner
FanDuel #2
P: Z. Eflin
C/1B: F. Freeman
2B: G. Lux
3B: S. Neuse
SS: T. Turner
OF: M. Betts
OF: R. Laureano
OF: C. Pinder
UTIL: A. Garcia
Good luck today, and enjoy the start to the Memorial Day weekend!
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