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School is back in session. We’re teaching our kids kindergarten in our kitchen – henceforth called “kinderkitchen” – so I’ll keep the intro short! We get a couple of nine-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel, so let’s dive in. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out. They’ve also added a Projected Ownership page to help you get different with your lineups!
Top SP: Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($10,500 DK, $11,000 FD) at ARI
Honestly, of the three aces on today’s slate, you really can’t go wrong. In Chicago, the wind is forecasted to be blowing in at 16 mph, so both Yu Darvish and Trevor Bauer are great plays.
Clayton Kershaw has looked like vintage Kershaw this year. In six starts this year he’s allowed just six runs while striking out 41 batters and allowing just 6 free passes. Facing the Arizona offense just enhances the Kershaw play as they have not been good. Over their last 14 games the Diamondbacks have posted a team wOBA of .267 against left-handed pitching. When we dive into their batted balls they’ve posted a hard-hit rate of just 28.1%, while hitting line drives at a 13.6% clip. There are no indications that their bats are getting out of the freezer any time soon.
Honorable Mentions: Yu Darvish, CHC ($11,500 DK, $11,500 FD) vs. CIN; Trevor Bauer, CIN ($10,900 DK, $10,800 FD) at CHC
Value SP: Zach Davies, SD ($8,700 DK, $9,000 FD) vs. COL
Okay, you’re probably correct, this isn’t EXACTLY a value play. However, if you’re fading the high-priced aces in a GPP, Zach Davies becomes a value SP1. If you’re looking for more traditional value pitchers, just check below.
Davies has been excellent to start the year, allowing just 12 earned runs over eight starts. He’s increased his strikeout rate from 15.2% in 2019 to 22.6%. The Davies transformation actually started in the second half of 2019, when he started fading the use of his sinker for a cutter. Davies gets a matchup against the Rockies, who have continued their struggles. Over the last 14 days, they’ve posted a team wOBA of .290 while striking out at a 28% clip. While he certainly lacks the upside of the “Big 3” today, Davies has a decent floor if you’re looking to pay down.
Honorable Mentions: Dane Dunning, CHW ($6,500 DK, $7,700 FD) at PIT; Pablo Lopez, MIA ($7,600 DK, $8,000 FD) at ATL
OF Trent Grisham, SD ($4,700 DK, $3,200 FD) vs. COL
Today’s a day when I’m going to go out of my way to get Padres into my lineups. Yes, I realize that’s less bold now that I typed it. Anyway, Trent Grisham will be leading off for the Padres and gets a matchup with Antonio Senzatela. For his part, Senzatela has been decent this year, posting a 4.51 ERA. However, his .292 wOBA doesn’t exactly match his .336 xwOBA, so worse days could be on the horizon. The kicker of this matchup for the Padres though is the Rockies bullpen. Over their last 14 days, they’ve allowed a league-worst 10.56 ERA. I’d expect the Padres to chip away at Senzatela early before blowing the game out of proportions late.
Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, OF ($4,000 DK, $2,900 FD) vs. BAL; Eloy Jimenez, OF ($5,200 DK, $3,400 FD) at PIT
3B Anthony Rendon, LAA ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD) at TEX
Anthony Rendon finally looks healthy and is playing like the slugger that the Angels thought they were getting when they signed him. Since August 17th, Rendon has hit above .300 and has now homered in back-to-back games. Today, he’ll face Kyle Cody, who hasn’t allowed any runs to score over his 7.1 IP, albeit with an 18.5% walk rate. The max that Cody has gone this year is 3.1 IP, so we’ll see a lot of the Rangers bullpen today that has allowed a 4.76 ERA over their last 14 days. Even if Cody continues to keep his LOB% at 100%, the Angels should get to the bullpen pretty easily.
Honorable Mentions: Wilmer Flores, 1B/2B ($4,100 DK, $2,900 FD) vs. SEA; Gavin Lux, 2B ($4,000 DK, $4,000 FD) vs. COL
Value Batter: OF Austin Slater, SF ($3,700 DK, $2,500 FD) vs. SEA
Austin Slater is one of my favorite plays on today’s slate. He’s a power/speed threat and has been leading off against left-handed pitching for the Giants. Today he gets a matchup with Nick Margevicius. Nicky Margs has pitched decently this year, posting a 3.86 ERA. Although, with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 11th percent, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get tagged up. Following Margevicius, the Giants will see the Mariners bullpen that has allowed a 9.39 ERA over their last 14 days. I love a Giants 3-man stack of Slater, Wilmer Flores, and Joey Bart on DraftKings today.
Honorable Mentions: Shin Soo-Choo, OF ($2,600 DK, $2,800 FD) vs. LAA; Darin Ruf, OF ($2,300 DK, $2,100 FD) vs. SEA
Lineup Stack: Mets vs. Orioles (RHP Jorge Lopez)
My hope with the Mets today is that everyone saw them struggle against John Means, which should keep their ownership relatively low. Today they get a matchup with Jorge Lopez who has been bad and it could get worse. Lopez has posted a 5.32 ERA while allowing a .281 wOBA. Now imagine what’s going to happen to that ERA when his wOBA catches up to his .361 xwOBA. From the Mets, I like Brandon Nimmo ($4,000 DK, $2,900 FD), Robinson Cano ($4,400 DK, $3,300 FD), Michael Conforto ($4,800 DK, $3,200 FD), Dominic Smith ($4,200 DK, $3,400 FD), and Jeff McNeil ($3,500 DK, $2,800 FD). Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: Dodgers at Diamondbacks (RHP Taylor Clarke); Padres vs. Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela); White Sox at Pirates (RHP JT Brubaker)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)