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Top SP: Mike Clevinger, SD ($9,700 DK, $9,600 FD) vs COL
We’ve only seen 20 innings from Mike Clevinger this year, but they haven’t been great. Just a 9.6% K-BB% that’s a far cry from last season’s 26.5% K-BB%. But, if you’re willing to chalk it up to a small sample fluke, tonight represents a fantastic time to buy low on Clevinger. The Rockies and their dreadful .288 team wOBA and 76 wRC+ on the road present the perfect opportunity for Clevinger to spike a ceiling performance. The Padres are the biggest favorite on the board currently at -240.
Honorable Mentions: Walker Buehler, LAD ($10,200 DK, $10,400 FD) at ARI.
Value SP: Sixto Sánchez, MIA ($6,200 DK, $9,000 FD) at ATL
This one is simple. Let’s take advantage of a way too cheap price for a young, supremely talented pitcher in Sixto Sánchez. In his last start against the Jays, Sánchez threw seven innings, allowed two runs and struck out five (29% CSW). The stuff is incredible, as his fastball sits 98 MPH along with a change up and slider that can both get whiffs. He’s got excellent strikeout upside (26.8% K rate) and even more exciting, to me at least, is a 1.4% walk rate through his first three turns. The Braves aren’t an easy match up but they will strike out a bit with a 24.9% team K rate against RHP (ninth worst) and it’ll be the first time they are seeing him. The price on DraftKings makes the rookie an easy play as a second SP.
Honorable Mention: Andrew Heaney LAA ($8,400 DK, $9,200 FD) at TEX.
2B Jake Cronenworth, SD ($4,300 DK, $3,100 FD) vs COL
Going by the projections over at FTN we should be targeting the Padres as they’ll face off against one of the more susceptible pitchers of the slate in Chi-Chi Gonzalez. We haven’t seen much of Gonzalez this year, but looking back to 2019, it wasn’t great as he tallied an unimpressive 4.7% K-BB%. He also allowed an ugly .369 wOBA to LHB. Fernando Tatís Jr, Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, and friends have all been very productive and are all, of course, great plays but they’re expensive. Jake Cronenworth provides a cheaper way to get a piece of the Padres lineup and he fills what can be a tricky position in 2B. If you haven’t noticed, Cronenworth has been tremendous this season with a .461 xwOBA and .381 xBA. On a similar note, Mitch Moreland, whose role may have been solidified by the injury to Eric Hosmer last night, should be considered. He was productive for Boston with a .406 wOBA (.374 xwOBA) prior to being traded.
Honorable Mentions: Corey Seager, SS ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD) at ARI; Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($6,000 DK, $4,700 FD) vs COL; Trent Grisham, OF ($5,000 DK, $3,100 FD) vs COL; Jesse Winker, OF ($4,300 DK, $2,900 FD) at CHC.
1B/OF Cody Bellinger, LAD ($5,800 DK, $4,300 FD) at ARI
We mentioned the Padres as a clear spot for offense, the other one is the Dodgers as their implied team total is over five and a half runs. This will be Luke Weaver’s second straight start against the Dodgers and third overall this season. He pitched well his last time out holding the Dodgers to just two runs in just over five innings of work while collecting five strikeouts (25% CSW). But we shouldn’t expect a repeat. Weaver has a very respectable 19.5% K-BB% on the year but he’s been dancing in and out of trouble especially when hitters make contact as he’s surrendered a .357 xwOBA and 11.1% barrel rate. Not great. Lefties in particular have had his number with a .416 wOBA so far this season. Enter Cody Bellinger (.364 xwOBA this season) who should be set up to do plenty of damage with Max Muncy and Mookie Betts hitting in front of him.
Honorable Mentions: Max Muncy, 1B/3B ($5,500 DK, $3,600 FD) at ARI; Christian Yelich, OF ($5,300 DK, $4,200 FD) at DET; J.D. Davis, OF ($4,300 DK, $2,600 FD) vs BAL, Eloy Jiménez, 3B ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD) at PIT.
Value Batter: OF DJ Stewart, BAL ($2,000 DK, $2,400 FD) at NYM
DJ Stewart showed off some power last year in Triple-A Norfolk with a .257 ISO in 277 PA. And he’s got three home runs in his first two starts. The Orioles are on the road tonight facing the Mets and Michael Wacha who, to his credit, has been effective when he has pitched this season with a 20.8% K-BB% in 20 innings. Really, this all about the price and probable lineup spot. At the flat minimum on DraftKings it’s hard to go wrong on a player who’s projected to hit second and has flashed some power upside.
Honorable Mentions: Victor Reyes, OF ($3,800 DK, $2,600 FD) vs MIL; Dylan Moore, 2B/OF ($3,700 DK, $3,000 FD) at SF; Brandon Belt, 1B ($3,800 DK, $3,100 FD) vs SEA; Gavin Lux, 2B ($3,800 DK, $2,400 FD) at ARI.
Lineup Stack: Dodgers at Diamondbacks (RHP Luke Weaver)
We mentioned the Padres against Gonzalez earlier. Another offense to consider are the White Sox on the road against Joe Musgrove, who is working up his pitch count after returning from injury. The Cubs/Reds game is an interesting one. Simply put, Alec Mills just hasn’t shown too much to get excited about and it’ll also be his third time facing this Reds lineup. Though, some poor hitting weather in Wrigley could put a damper on offense in that game so keep an eye out for that.
As mentioned earlier with Bellinger, the Dodgers are set up really well tonight facing Weaver for his second start in a row, this time on the road at Chase Field. For his career, Weaver has been a bit more susceptible against LHB allowing a wOBA of .341 as opposed to .319 against RHB. The Diamondbacks bullpen has also struggled quite a bit this year, their relievers having combined for an 11% K-BB% (fifth worst) and an identical ERA and FIP of 5.11. Max Muncy (.385 xwOBA this season), Corey Seager (.482 xwOBA), and of course Mookie Betts (.399 xwOBA) along with Bellinger all grade out as fantastic plays hitting at the top of the order. While Gavin Lux and Will Smith are upside tournament options.
Honorable Mentions: SD vs COL (Gonzalez); CWS at PIT (Musgrove); CIN at CHC (Mills).
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