We’ve got a nine-game slate for Saturday highlighted by the Giants continuing their series at Coors Field, this time Jon Gray is on the mound for the Rockies. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes gets top billing as the Brewers host the Mets.
Top Tier Pitching
| Opp | Salary DK/FD | ML | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lance Lynn | at CLE | $9,200/ $10,000 | -175 | 146 | 20.4% | 25.9% | 11.9% | 1.07 | 2.47 | 2.59 |
| Robbie Ray | at MIN | $10,400/ $10,800 | -179 | 182 | 26.5% | 29.8% | 15.8% | 1.03 | 2.72 | 3.34 |
| Corbin Burnes | vs NYM | $10,600/ $11,100 | -238 | 158 | 14.9% | 27.6% | 13.1% | 1.03 | 2.33 | 2.01 |
| Clayton Kershaw | at ARI | $9,800/$11,000 | -226 | 115.2 | 26.3% | 32.7% | 16.8% | 0.97 | 3.27 | 3.14 |
Clayton Kershaw was very sharp in his last start against the Reds, collecting eight strikeouts with no walks. However, he was limited to just 74 pitches in his second start back from the IL (forearm), so workload is a definite question mark today.
Corbin Burnes was uncharacteristically mediocre in his last start against the Cubs of all teams, but I think we can shake it off and expect better things against the Mets tonight.
After dominating the Rays at home, the script flipped somewhat in Robbie Ray’s most recent start, this time at the Trop. The lefty gets a chance to rebound tonight against a Twins team that is just playing out the string, posting just a .310 wOBA since August 1st (20th). Meanwhile, the Jays could really use a strong start from their ace as they fight for a playoff spot.
Lance Lynn threw just 83 pitches in his last start against the Rangers, his second start back from a knee injury that required a brief stint on the IL. The man has been a stalwart this year, limiting hitters to just a .247 xwOBA and the price is tempting. But I think you have to be cautious here as I don’t think we can pencil him in for a strong workload after the White Sox clinched the division. Maybe he tosses 100 pitches here, but then again TLR held Dylan Cease to just 82 pitches last night.
Edit: Cease was actually removed last night after being hit by a come backer. Regardless, I’m still looking at Lynn’s pitch count as around 85 pitches.
Mid-Tier/Value Pitching
| Opp | Salary DK/FD | ML | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | xERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huascar Ynoa | at SD | $8,800/ $7,600 | -117 | 81.1 | 19.80% | 30.20% | 12.60% | 1.06 | 3.43 | 4.14 |
| Tyler Anderson | at LAA | $7,500/ $8,500 | -133 | 159.1 | 14.70% | 26.90% | 11.70% | 1.19 | 4.01 | 4.15 |
| Zac Gallen | vs LAD | $8,600/ $7,000 | 205 | 109.1 | 16.80% | 27% | 9.10% | 1.32 | 4.53 | 3.81 |
The options tonight in the value tier are sparse. Tyler Anderson is coming off an excellent start against the Athletics his last time out going seven strong while allowing just one earned run along with seven Ks (29.7% CSW). Since August 1st, the Angels have been the worst offense in baseball with a .282 team wOBA. The Padres are another offense that has struggled in the second half, ranking 26th in wOBA since August 1st at .297. That could work in Huascar Ynoa’s favor tonight. Lastly, I believe in Zac Gallen but he gets a rough schedule to close the year. That continues tonight against the Dodgers.
Bats and Stacks
- TOR (5.2) at MIN John Gant (RHP) 4.6 K-BB%, .340 xwOBA, 1.47 WHIP, 5.09 xERA: If this isn’t the mismatch of the century then I don’t know what is. The Jays need this game for the playoff hopes too.
- CIN (5.2) vs WSN Erick Fedde (RHP) 14.5% K-BB, .331 xwOBA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.79 xERA: I think we can expect some runs at the Great American Ball Park. Max Schrock is a potential punt play in the OF if you need it. He hit 2nd last night in front of Nick Castellanos (.365 xwOBA this year). And on the other side too. As if you needed a reason to play Juan Soto (.434 xwOBA), Vladimir Gutierrez for the Reds has just a 17.7% K rate.
- CWS (4.9) at CLE Eli Morgan (RHP) 15.5 K-BB%, .349 xwOBA, 1.33 WHIP, 5.41 xERA: Morgan has had his share of home run troubles this year. He’s also shown to be a little more vulnerable to lefties as he’s allowed a .381 xwOBA to them along with just a 17.9% K rate.
- BAL (4.8) vs TEX Jordan Lyles (RHP) 11.1%, .352 xwOBA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.51 xERA: Lyles has allowed a .370 xwOBA to LHB and a .339 xwOBA to RHB this season. Cedric Mullins (.349 xwOBA) made history last night with his home run becoming the Orioles’ first 30/30 man. Anthony Santander (.327 xwOBA) and Trey Mancini (.342 xwOBA) are a couple of cheaper options on DraftKings with upside.
- SF (6.3) at COL Jon Gray (RHP) 14.4 K-BB%, .300 xwOBA, 1.33 WHIP, 3.86 xERA: Gray has pitched well this year but it’s Coors Field. The Giants have been easily one of the year’s biggest surprises. Since August 1st, their team wOBA of .335 ranks fifth. The Rockies are an interesting team here too. They’ll get Anthony DeScalafani who has been slightly more vulnerable to lefties this year with a .329 xwOBA allowed. My guess is that the Rockies will come in at a lower roster % than the Giants providing potential for some leverage in tournaments.
- LAD (5.5) at ARI Zac Gallen (RHP) 16.8% K-BB, .298 xwOBA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.81 xERA: No, I don’t want to pick on Gallen but, you know the deal the Dodgers can ruin any pitcher’s night. And besides, Gallen has not been at his best this year.
Value Bats
| Position | Opp | DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Mancini | 1B | vs TEX (Lyles) | $3,300 | $2,900 |
| Anthony Santander | OF | vs TEX (Lyles) | $3,200 | $2,900 |
| Nick Solak | 2B | at BAL (Ellis) | $3,100 | $2,500 |
| Nate Lowe | 1B | at BAL (Ellis) | $4,600 | $2,700 |
| Willy Adames | SS | vs NYM (Hill) | $3,700 | $2,800 |
| Corey Dickerson | OF | at MIN (Gant) | $2,900 | $2,300 |
| Max Schrock | 2B | vs WSN (Fedde) | $2,800 | $2,100 |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B/OF | at CLE (Morgan) | $3,200 | $2,100 |
| Eloy Jiménez | OF | at CLE (Morgan) | $3,900 | $3,300 |
| Jarred Kelenic | OF | at LAA (Barria) | $3,700 | $3,100 |
| Tommy La Stella | 2B | at COL (Gray) | $4,000 | $3,600 |
| Evan Longoria | 3B | at COL (Gray) | $3,900 | $3,700 |