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Happy Wednesday! Today’s going to be a weird writeup. On DraftKings the Main Slate starts at 6:05, which means we get 14 games there. FanDuel on the other hand decided to keep their Main Slate at 7:05, which narrows our options down to 8 games. That means no Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber, Trevor Bauer, Zack Greinke, or Masahiro Tanaka on FanDuel. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out. They’ve also added a Projected Ownership page to help you get different with your lineups!
Top SP: Kenta Maeda, MIN ($9,200 DK, $10,000 FD) vs. DET
I wanted to be all-inclusive and feature a top pitcher from both sites, so let’s dive into Kenta Maeda. The Twins’ ace has been excellent this year. Anytime you see a 27.2 K-BB% it’s impressive, but I love that it comes with a minuscule 4.4% walk rate. His 2.52 ERA is fully supported by the 3.01 SIERA and his Baseball Savant page is full of a lovely shade of red. As great as Maeda has been, the Tigers offense has been the opposite. Over the last 14 days, they’ve posted a team wOBA of .244 while striking out 28.9% of the time. On the batted ball front, the Tigers rank in the bottom five teams in hard-hit rate. On a day where there are a ton of aces going, Maeda ranks right up there with the best.
Honorable Mentions: Lucas Giolito, CHW ($9,500 DK) at CLE; Tyler Glasnow, TB ($9,300 DK, $10,300 FD) at NYM; Zack Greinke, HOU ($9,400 DK) at SEA; Trevor Bauer, CIN ($9,800 DK) vs. MIL; Shane Bieber, CLE ($10,200 DK) vs. CHW
Value SP: Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($8,300 DK, $10,600 FD) at PIT
I’ll be sure to include a FanDuel value play below, but Kyle Hendricks as an SP2 against the Pirates seems fun to me. Hendricks may not have the strikeout upside that the aces on this slate have, but he’s such a safe option. If you were impressed by Maeda’s walk rate, wait until you see Hendrick’s 2.4% walk rate. Over 73.2 IP you can count the number of walks he’s issued on your fingers – unless of course, you were in some horrific chainsaw accident. During the month of September, Hendricks has allowed just 4 earned runs in 29.2 IP. The flipside to Hendrick’s greatness is the Pirates offense. Over the last 14 days, they’ve posted a league-worst team wOBA of .224 against right-handed pitching. During that time they’ve struck out 28.1% of the time, while hitting line drives a league-worst 15.1% of the time.
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Williams, PIT ($6,800 DK, $6,000 FD) vs. CHC
OF Byron Buxton, MIN ($3,800 DK, $3,000 FD) vs. DET
A quick look at FTN’s Hot Hitter Report reveals that Byron Buxton is the third hottest hitter in the league. Since September 7th, Buxton has batted .326 and has 10 extra-base hits, including 8 homers. The part that I’m most excited about though, is that the Twins have finally moved him up in the lineup. In his last three games, he led off twice and hit second in the third game. Today, the Twins face Casey Mize, who has struggled against major league hitting. Mize has lasted 5 innings just once and has allowed at least two earned runs in every outing. Following Mize, the Twins will face a Tigers bullpen that has allowed a 6.79 ERA over the last 14 days.
1B Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($5,000 DK, $3,600 FD) at KC
Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals are still in the playoff hunt. Today, they get a matchup with left-handed pitcher Danny Duffy. The Royals’ southpaw has seen the wheels fall off the wagon as he’s allowed at least 4 runs in three of his last four starts. Goldschmidt has hit lefties really well this year, posting a .350 ISO and .441 wOBA. This is a great spot for a hitter that still has something to fight for.
Value Batter: 2B/OF Ketel Marte, ARI ($2,900 DK) vs. TEX
This has less to do with what Ketel Marte has done this year and more to do with the price/positional flexibility. Marte just returned from an IL stint. With the Diamondbacks out of the playoff race, that says to me that Marte is completely healthy. If he weren’t they would have no reason to play him. While I wouldn’t say he mashed left-handed pitching this year, Marte did post a .433 wOBA against southpaws. Today, the D-Backs face Wes Benjamin. The Rangers’ lefty has pitched decently in short appearances but has been limited to 4 IP his last two outings. I don’t plan on stacking the Diamondbacks, as the Rangers bullpen has been good of late, but Marte’s price is too cheap to ignore.
Lineup Stack: Giants vs. Rockies (RHP Ryan Castellani)
I wanted to feature a stack that fit the following criteria: a) affordable, b) on both main slates, c) was a team that still has something to play for. The Giants hit all three. The affordable part for me was critical because of the high-end pitching on DraftKings today. Today the Giants face Ryan Castellani. The Rockies’ right-hander was able to survive his first two outings of the season mainly because of his opponents – Rangers and Mariners. He gave up just one earned run over 8.2 IP in those outings. Since then, Castellani has allowed 25 runs to score in 30 IP while walking more batters than he’s stuck out. Following Castellani is a Rockies bullpen that has allowed a 7.01 ERA over the last 14 days. During that time, the bullpen leads the league in hard-hit rate allowed. On the Giants side, I’m looking to play Alex Dickerson ($4,300 DK, $2,800 FD), Brandon Belt (3,700 DK, $3,000 FD), Brandon Crawford ($4,400 DK, $2,800 FD), Donovan Solano ($4,100 DK, $3,000), and Austin Slater ($4,500 DK, $2,800 FD). Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: Yankees at Blue Jays (LHP Robbie Ray); Red Sox vs. Orioles (RHP Dean Kremer); Twins vs. Tigers (RHP Casey Mize); Dodgers vs. Athletics (LHP Sean Manaea); Rays at Mets (RHP Michael Wacha)
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)