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Happy Monday! With three doubleheaders on the docket, we have just four 9-inning games on the day—only three of which come at night. FanDuel’s main slate is just a three-game slate. DraftKings has a seven-game slate that starts at 4:10 and is including the first games of the double-headers. Let’s try and get through this poop-show together. As always, make sure you check FTN’s Lineups Page once lineups are out. They’ve also added a Projected Ownership page to help you get different with your lineups!
Top SP: Trevor Bauer, CIN ($10,800 DK) vs. PIT
This play is just for DraftKings since this game is not on FanDuel’s slate. Let’s quickly break this one down—seven-inning game, with a pitcher on the mound who’s averaging 6.46 IP per start, against a team that has a league-worst .279 wOBA on the season. Let’s put it this way, I’ll be disappointed if Trevor Bauer doesn’t go the full seven innings.
I don’t feel great about it, but I suppose I’m looking to Clayton Kershaw ($10,400 DK, $10,600 FD) over on FanDuel if I’m paying up. The Padres have cooled off some of late, posting just a .300 wOBA over the last 14 days against lefties.
Value SP: Touki Toussaint, ATL ($5,600 DK, $6,800 FD) at BAL
If I’m paying up for Trevor Bauer (and I’m definitely paying up for Bauer), I’ve got to get low with my SP2. Touki Toussaint is cheap and comes with a strikeout upside that the other cheap pitchers on this slate just don’t have. Toussant is striking out 27.5% of the batters he faces. While that is a fun start, he’s also walking batters at a 12.8% clip. The stat that makes me feel slightly at ease about that walk rate is that the Orioles have only walked at a 6.2% rate over the last 14 days—tied for third lowest in the league.
OF Starling Marte, MIA ($5,200 DK, $2,900 FD) vs. PHI
I’m a Phillies fan and I know there are three things that are absolute in life—death, taxes, and the Phillies bullpen getting blown up. Even if Vince Velasquez can hold the Marlins offense down, he’s not fully stretched out, so he’ll likely be limited to five IP at the most. That means we’ll get at least four innings of a bullpen that has allowed 26 runs to cross the plate in their last 26 IP. Over the last seven days, they’ve allowed a K-BB rate of 6.9%. Since joining the Marlins, Starling Marte has been batting second. He’s starting to heat up and went 4/7 in yesterday’s doubleheader, including two doubles, two runs scored, and an RBI.
1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,500 DK, $4,300 FD) at BAL
On a day full of unknowns, Freddie Freeman is my constant. Freeman will be the first batter I lock into my lineup. The Orioles are sending Jorge López to the mound and the book is long on his poor pitching. Since the start of 2019, López has allowed a 6.36 ERA over 147.2 IP. During that time, lefties have hit him harder than righties, although both have hit him well. The Braves will be my favorite stack on the day, although I don’t think I’ll be alone with that thought.
Value Batter: OF Matt Joyce, MIA ($2,000 DK, $2,500 FD) vs. PHI
Who can resist a min-priced cleanup hitter? Matt Joyce is projected to bat 4th for the Marlins today, which not only makes him a major value, but he also completes a mini-stack with Starling Marte. Because of the bullpen, the Phillies are definitely on my list to attack, making cheap Joyce an easy play today.
Lineup Stack: Braves at Orioles (RHP Jorge López)
Is it possible that both hitting and pitching are tough on today’s slate? The only thing that seems to be a sure thing is the Braves’ offense. The good news (kinda) is they’re not cheap, so if you go a full 5-man stack, you’re likely to have a couple of under-owned players. I like the Braves lineup, top to bottom. FTN’s Lineup Optimizer has the Braves at a team total of 5.9 runs, so we’re on the right track. As mentioned above, I love Freddie Freeman today, but other than him, I’ll probably grab Ozzie Albies ($4,400 DK, $3,700 FD), Marcell Ozuna ($5,400 DK, $4,100 FD), and Ronald Acuña ($6,000 DK, $4,900 FD). Good luck today!
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)