Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature 11 game main slates starting at 7:05. The weather looks good other than a little early rain in Boston for the Tigers and Red Sox. I don’t think it will affect the playing of the game, but it’s something to monitor as the day goes on. Let’s dive in.
Top SP: Yu Darvish, SD ($10,200 DK, $11,800 FD) vs PIT
The theme of today’s starting pitchers is “pick on bad offenses.” I know that seems pretty simple, but sometimes I ignore my own advice and try to get cute. Today I’m locking in Yu Darvish against the Pirates, who have a projected run total of 2.9 runs. Darvish has been vintage Darvish in the early going, striking out 33% of batters. He’s also managed to limit the homers in the early going. Strikeouts are king in DFS, and this is a slate that I’m not getting cute on – lock in Darvish.
Honorable Mentions: Walker Buehler, LAD ($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD) at CHC; Shane Bieber, CLE ($10,400 DK, $12,200 FD) at KC; Freddy Peralta, MIL ($9,500 DK, $9,000 FD) at PHI.
Value SP: Martín Pérez, BOS ($6,600 DK, $6,700) vs DET
Once upon a time, there was a day when the Tigers were sneaky good against left-handed pitchers. Sadly for Tigers fans, that time is over. For the year, they’re dead last in wRC+ against lefties while striking out an eye-popping 37% of the time. Now, Martín Pérez isn’t even a pitcher I usually like, but I can ignore wrinkles when the situation is right. A cheap starting pitcher against an awful offense is definitely that situation.
Honorable Mention: Brady Singer, KC ($5,500 DK, $7,400 FD) vs CLE.
3B Josh Donaldson, MIN ($5,100 DK, $3,100 FD) vs TEX
You can say whatever you’d like about Josh Donaldson being unreliable because of his health. Actually, scratch that, HIPAA laws protect against that. When Donaldson is on the field, he can flat out hit. So far on the year, Donaldson is striking out at a 10% rate, which means he’s putting a ton of balls in play. Today the Twins get lefty Hyeon-Jong Yang, who’s performed well in his first MLB action. The only issue is his 2.08 ERA is all BABIP and LOB driven. That’s what happens when you strike batters out at a 15% clip. This Twins lineup is stacked with guys who hit the ball hard, so I like Minnesota to be a sneaky stack today.
Honorable Mentions: Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($5,200 DK, $3,500 FD) vs DET; Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,800 DK, $3,700 FD) at WAS.
OF J.D. Martinez, BOS ($5,300 DK, $4,200 FD) vs DET
It turns out, I really like all of Boston today. I better start praying now to the baseball god that this game stays dry. J.D. Martinez has been mashing like a man possessed in the early going. He’s destroyed nine homers and has his plate discipline looking like vintage J.D. Today he gets the combination of Casey Mize and the Tigers bullpen. Both have been equally effective. Mize has allowed 15 runners to cross the plate in 25.2 innings thrown, while the bullpen has combined to allow 69 runs in 92.2 innings. That churns out a cool 6.40 ERA. Again, I like Boston a lot today.
Honorable Mentions: Aaron Judge, NYY ($5,200 DK, $3,700 FD) vs HOU; Nelson Cruz, MIN ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD) vs TEX.
Value Batter: 2B Josh Harrison, WAS ($3,500 DK, $3,100 FD) vs ATL
I talked a little bit about the Nationals stack on the PL Shorts Podcast, and with Max Fried on the mound for Atlanta, I think they’ll go a little overlooked. Fried struggled out of the gate and then landed on the IL. This will be his first start back from the IL, and the Nationals are a tough draw. In fact, the Nationals are third in the league in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. Batting second for the Nationals is Josh Harrison, who has been on a tear to open the year. He’s walking at a career-best rate while striking out at a career-low rate and has been raking. The Nationals righties are a sneaky stack that I’ll have in at least one lineup today.
Honorable Mentions: Victor Robles, WAS ($2,400 DK, $2,100 FD) vs ATL; Cristian Pache, ATL ($2,600 DK, $2,300 FD) at WAS.
Top Stack: Yankees vs HOU (RHP Luis H. Garcia)
Another stack I like today is the Yankees against Houston righty, Luis Garcia. For his part, Garcia has pitched relatively well early in the year but does have some regression coming to his 90% left on base rate. The Yankees lineup will be stacked as it always is, and the nice part is there are some cheaper pieces in addition to the high-priced Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Gio Urshela, Aaron Hicks, and Clint Frazier provide us with some salary relief if you’re looking to five-man stack the Yankees.
Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: BOS vs DET (Mize); MIN vs TEX (Yang); ATL at WAS (Fedde); MIL at PHI (Anderson).
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