Happy Wednesday! Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature 9 game main slates starting at 7:05. There’s some potential rain expected in Washington for the Nationals/Reds game, but everywhere else looks dry. So let’s dive into the plays!
Top SP: Marcus Stroman, NYM ($9,200 DK, $8,500 FD) vs COL
The Rockies are a team of extremes. In Colorado, you want to stack them. However, outside of Colorado is the time to attack them with pitching. On the year, the Rockies are dead last in team wRC+, wOBA, and ISO away from Coors and sport a 27.8% strikeout rate to boot. Marcus Stroman may lack the strikeout upside of Tyler Glasnow, but I feel like in cash games, I’m looking to the safe floor that Stroman provides. Don’t sleep on Stroman’s Ks, though, as the Mets’ righty has hit eight punchouts twice this year already.
Value SP: Germán Márquez, COL ($6,700 DK, $8,800) at NYM
Well, looks like I’m betting the under on the Mets/Rockies game. While full-season stats are a good “big picture” look, sometimes I like to trim down the sample size to see how the teams’ form currently is. Over the last two weeks, the Mets are next to last in all of the stat categories that matter against right-handed pitchers while striking out at a 27% rate. Germán Márquez has been pretty good on the strikeouts front this year but has struggled with giving up free passes. If he can limit the walks, I love Márquez as an SP2 on DraftKings.
Honorable Mention: Triston McKenzie, CLE ($7,500 DK, $6,400 FD) at DET.
1B Freddie Freeman, ATL ($5,600 DK, $3,800 FD) at BOS
Nick Pivetta has been a pretty decent surprise for Red Sox fans to start the year. Two scary things stand out about Pivetta, though. Number one is the walks, as we’ve seen the walk rate spike to above 12%. The second is that he’s allowing a 40% flyball rate, but he has limited the homers allowed thus far. As the weather warms up, I expect that to change. Today, Freddie Freeman and the Braves will try and get to Pivetta. The Braves lead the league in isolated slugging against right-handed pitchers. Freddie Freeman is just a professional hitter and is my top hitter in the Braves’ stack.
OF Kyle Schwarber, WAS ($4,900 DK, $3,900 FD) vs CIN
I wanted to spotlight the Nationals in their matchup against Jeff Hoffman, but recommending Juan Soto or Trea Turner, who are both priced above $6k is, like, “well duh.” So let’s talk about Kyle Schwarber. The Nats’ new addition started off the year a little chilly but has caught fire, mashing six homers in May. Schwarber has been locked into the clean-up spot for the Nats, and with a pitcher on the mound that likes to issue free passes, Schwarber should have ample opportunities to drive in runs.
Value Batter: OF Tommy Pham, SD ($3,500 DK, $2,700 FD) at MIL
Eric Lauer is not a pitcher that will sustain a sub-3 ERA. This is a hill I will die on. The Padres’ pricing is super confusing today. Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth are priced through the roof, while Tommy Pham and Wil Myers are super cheap. The good part is that makes them pretty easy to stack. For his part, Pham has struggled to start the year. However, over the last five days, he’s tallied 10 runs/RBIs and chipped in a homer and two steals.
Top Stack: Yankees vs TOR (RHP Alek Manoah)
Toronto fireballing prospect Alek Manoah makes his MLB debut and gets a tough draw against the Yankees. As if facing the Bronx Bombers wasn’t scary enough, there will also be a lovely 12 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field. The bonus part about the Yankees is that other than DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Judge, none of the Yankees bats are priced above $4.1k. After the two pricy bats, my favorites are Luke Voit and Gio Urshela.
Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: ATL at BOS (Pivetta); SD at MIL (Lauer); TB vs KC (Minor); CLE at DET (Urena).
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