Monday’s short, six-game slate begins at 6:40 PM EST with the Marlins hosting the DBacks and what should be two entertaining division showdowns between Atlanta and the Mets and the Yankees and Blue Jays.
Top Tier Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their combined stats from the 2021-22 seasons.
Max Fried : ($9,300 DK, $9,600 FD): vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
Chris Bassitt: ($9,600 DK, $10,000 FD): @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 94 pitches.
Pablo López: ($10,000 DK, $10,500 FD): @ WSH (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 84 pitches.
López and the Marlins host the Diamondbacks, a team that has struggled offensively with the second-worst team wOBA in baseball at .275 ahead of only the Reds. The DBacks have also struck out at a 25.2% rate as a team, tied for third-highest with the Marlins and Reds. Carried by his brilliant changeup which has returned a whiff rate of 46.9%, the Marlins righty has been near flawless through his first four starts.
Fried draws a more difficult assignment on the road against the sizzling New York Mets, owners of a 16-7 record, tops in the senior circuit. The Mets also have the fourth-best team wOBA at .332 and have struck out at just a 20.1% clip as a team, tied with the Cardinals for second-lowest in baseball. But, as we saw against the Dodgers a couple of turns ago, he’s more than capable of dominating any offense on any given night.
The Bassitt trade has paid off handsomely for the Mets thus far as he carries a sparkling 2.25 ERA and 0.92 WHIP into tonight’s battle with their arch-rivals Atlanta. I’d lean more in favor of López just because he gets a friendlier matchup, but I don’t think you can argue against Bassitt at this point. But, Ronald Acuña Jr. returned a few days ago, making the assignment all the more challenging.
Mid-Tier/Value Pitching
Drew Rasmussen: ($8,300 DK, $8,200 FD): vs SEA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 84 pitches.
Chris Paddack: ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD): vs DET (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
Zac Gallen: ($7,600 DK, $9,100 FD): vs LAD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 90 pitches.
Jake Odorizzi: ($6,200 DK, $6,200 FD):@ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.
Rasmussen looks like a very interesting option in the mid-tier tonight. After two ho-hum starts, he seemed to have found his groove in his last start against the Mariners, as the righty leaned heavily on his slider and cutter, both returning CSW rates north of 35%. He also got his pitch count up to 84. The Rays are heavy road favorites (-165) against an Oakland lineup that has the worst strikeout rate in baseball at 26.1%. On a short slate with limited options, sure, why not?
Paddack, the former Padre, looked very good in his last start against the Tigers. Of note was his ability to locate his fastball up in the zone alone with not only his changeup but also his curveball, showing bat-missing ability. The latter of which adds a new wrinkle to his repertoire. Coming off a dreadful 2021 season, Paddack’s floor is, well, not great. But, if he can follow the blueprint of his latest outing, he carries plenty of upside against an Orioles team that has struck out at 25.7%, the second-highest rate in baseball.
The only real knock against Gallen tonight is that he’s a road dog (+135). Otherwise, he looks like one of the better options on the slate given his track record (career 3.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP across 288.1 IP) and modest salary, more so on DraftKings where he carries more utility as a cost-effective SP2. And, hey, it’s a revenge spot for Gallen too as he faces the Marlins, the team he made his major league debut with back in 2019. His former team has also struck out at a 25.2%, tied with the D-Backs and Reds for third-highest.
Hey, what about Odorizzi? Well, he’s there, I guess. He’s a reasonable home favorite (-130) coming off a strong start his last time out, but even still, I think I’d be more inclined to take a chance on a Seattle bat like Julio Rodríguez, who could be starting to find his footing in the bigs; or Jesse Winker who is only $2,600 on FanDuel.
Ross Stripling: ($5,800 DK, $6,400 FD): vs BOS (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 84 pitches.
Jordan Montgomery: ($8,100 DK, $7,500 FD): vs BAL (ND) – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 71 pitches.
Wow, how about Stripling’s last start? He dominated the Red Sox, granted they’ve really struggled offensively so far, but, still, Stripling had everything working and managed an impressive 37% CSW. It feels like a one-game blip, but his salary is very reasonable as an SP2 on DraftKings if you want to roll the dice on a tournament lineup.
Montgomery is on the other side of tonight’s AL East division showdown. While the lefty is a very capable real-life pitcher, he tends to be underwhelming from a fantasy perspective as he usually doesn’t go too deep into games and doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we’re looking for. Facing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Jays, he seems like a fade.
Bats and Stacks
- HOU (4.6 implied run total) vs SEA Marco Gonzales (LHP) 11.7 K-BB%, 3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP: The Astros should be getting Jose Altuve back tonight to help lengthen their lineup. Gonzales is one of the few lefties who hasn’t shown a wide split for his career, so it might not be a bad idea to attack this spot with Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez in tournaments.
- MIN (4.5 implied run total) at BAL Tyler Wells (RHP) 21 K-BB%, 4.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP: Road teams at Camden Yards are always popular, so I think we can expect to see plenty of Twins stacks. Max Kepler sticks out as a potential value on both sites along with Luis Arraez.
- NYY (4.1 implied run total) at TOR Ross Stripling (RHP) 14.6 K-BB%, 4.64 ERA, 1.26 WHIP: Two excellent offenses going against two decent, but not great starters. This feels like the game that swings tournaments if you can guess right. I’d lean slightly in favor of the Yankees, just because I think Montgomery is the stronger pitcher between the two. But, again, it’s very close and there might actually end up being potential leverage in tournaments by siding with the Jays.
Value Bats
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