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DFS Plays of the Day – May 16

Ryan Amore previews Monday's DFS slate.

An 11-game slate is on tap for today. For such a big slate, there doesn’t seem to be all that many pitching options that stand out. On the flipside, Coors Field is the obvious spot for offense. As far as other bats go, all the mediocre pitching options make this a very interesting slate to approach from a tournament perspective, with plenty of other teams providing power upside, including the Jays and Dodgers.

 

Top Tier Pitching 

 

Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their combined stats from the 2021-22 seasons.

Freddy Peralta : ($10,500 DK, $ 9,700 FD):@ CIN (W) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 96 pitches.

Peralta easily has the highest K rate among the top tier today, so we should expect most rosters to land on him. After a dud against the Cardinals about a month ago, the righty has rattled off four consecutive starts with no fewer than six K’s. There might be some hesitation with Atlanta tonight, but they’ve actually overtaken the Reds for the highest K rate in baseball at 25.9%.

Miles Mikolas: ($9,800 DK, $ 10,200 FD): vs BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 98 pitches.

Look, I love a good mustache, but $9,800 that’s a steep price to pay. In all seriousness, he’s been an absolute gem if you landed on him for your season-long leagues, as he carries a pristine 1.49 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. But, based on strikeout expectations, his 18.7% K rate leaves a lot to be desired, making him a fade at his current salary. The Mets have slowed down some, but they are also still within the top ten in team wOBA. There could be some rain tonight in Queens, so if you do land on Mikolas, be sure to double-check closer to game time.

Tony Gonsolin: ($10,200 DK, $8,700 FD): @ PIT (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 84 pitches.

In our quest for strikeouts, Gonsolin looks overpriced. Through his first six starts, he’s returned a 21.1% K rate, just about league average. And in his last start against the Pirates? Three whiffs. Blegh. He also doesn’t seem like a good gamble to go deep into games either considering he’s yet to throw 90 pitches. That doesn’t instill a ton of confidence in his ceiling relative to his salary on DK, where he’s the second most expensive pitcher behind Peralta. The D-Backs are not a good hitting team by any stretch (.291 team wOBA, 23rd in baseball) but, then again, neither are the Pirates and Gonsolin didn’t exactly take advantage during his last start. The Dodgers are tonight’s biggest favorites, but he doesn’t really stand out considering his salary on DraftKings (he’s more playable on FanDuel) and his middle-of-the-road strikeout ability.

 

Mid-Tier/Value Pitching

 

 

 

Luis Severino: ($8,800 DK, $8,100 FD): vs TOR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 97 pitches

Kyle Bradish: ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD): @ STL (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 11 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 41% CSW, 90 pitches.

It feels weird, but both pitchers in Camden Yards are interesting tonight. Of course, the rookie Bradish carries a ton of risk against the Yankees, but, as we saw in his latest start, he has legit bat-missing ability and at $5,800, I think you have to at least be a little bit interested as a potential SP2 in tournaments.

Severino has been a little frustrating to roster, but 97 pitches and 8 K’s against the Jays should have us encouraged that maybe he’s turned the corner. Seems like a good buy-low opportunity against the Orioles who have the seventh-highest K rate in baseball at 24.5%.

Yusei Kikuchi: ($6,300 DK, $7,500 FD):@ NYY (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 89 pitches.

Kikuchi is a roller coaster, but as we saw his last two times out against the Yankees, he can return value as an SP2 on DK at his current salary. He’s a strong favorite tonight (-161) and it’s a revenge spot against his old team.

Noah Syndergaard: ($8,500 DK, $9,900 FD): vs TB (W) – 5.1 IP, ER, 7 Hits, BB, 7 K’s – 15 Whiffs, 29.9% CSW, 97 pitches.

I was suspicious of Syndergaard his last time out, and then, he posted 7 K’s and cruised to an easy W. But, I’m sticking to my guns and saying that I’m still not convinced he’s a pitcher that should be prioritized. In his glory days with the Mets, he averaged 97+ with his fastball. Now? He’s sitting 94. The interesting thing is that these days, his changeup is his top pitch at 26.6% thrown. It’s worked so far and has returned a 36.5% whiff rate. When in doubt, I tend to lean on The Bat projections, which has Syndergaard pegged at a 4.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and an 18.2% K rate. But hey, maybe he keeps it going tonight against the Rangers, who have the third-lowest team wOBA in baseball at .281. On DraftKings, I’d rather roll the dice on Severino at $300 more.

 

 

 

Bats and Stacks

 

 

  • SF (6.4 implied run total) at COL Antonio Senzatela (RHP) 9.3 K-BB%, 4.49 ERA, 1.43 WHIP: DraftKings usually does a good job in pricing up Coors Field bats, but really the entire Giants lineup looks underpriced tonight. Brandon Belt and Joc Pederson highlight the options considering their track record against RHP. LaMonte Wade Jr. as the likely leadoff man should be very popular too at just $3,400. The Rockies should, by far, be the less popular side of this game.

 

  • TOR (4.8 implied run total) vs SEA Chris Flexen (RHP) 11.0% K-BB%, 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP: Low K rate, and he’s allowed a .368 wOBA to RHB over his career. Would you be surprised if the Jays went off tonight?

 

  • NYY (4.8 implied run total) at BAL Kyle Bradish (RHP) 20.3% K-BB%, 4.24 ERA, 1.06 WHIP: The Yankees should carry plenty of attention in tournaments as they head to Camden Yards. But, they do get Bradish, who is coming off easily the best outing of his career, so they could warrant a fade as a potentially chalky stack.

 

  • STL (4.0 implied run total) at NYM Trevor Williams (RHP) 14.4% K-BB%, 4.50 ERA, 1.51 WHIP: I don’t think the Cardinals have the power to carry the slate as a stack, but they do get one of the weaker pitchers on the night in Williams, who has a 1.51 WHIP over his last 102 IP. Yikes. Tyler O’Neill has been off to a brutal start, but he should be back tonight after two nights off and is always an excellent tournament dart.

 

  • LAA (4.4 implied run total) at TEX Jon Gray (RHP) 15% K-BB%, 4.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP: An interesting game for tournaments. You have Syndergaard on the opposite side as a potential regression candidate and Gray, who has been up and down so far and is coming off an early exit with a knee injury. Maybe he’s not quite right? Never a bad idea to take a chance with a Trout-led Angels stack in tournaments.

 

  • LAD (5.3 implied run total) vs ARI Madison Bumgarner (LHP) 12.6% K-BB%, 4.18 ERA, 1.17 WHIP: Your daily reminder that the Dodgers can break a slate at the drop of a hat. Bumgarner carries a 1.78 ERA into tonight, maybe that keeps the Dodgers roster % down in tournaments.

 

Value Bats

 

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram

 

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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