DFS Plays of the Day – May 11

After last night’s short slate, Tuesday greets us with a massive twelve-game slate headlined by the Padres at Coors.

 

Top SP: Walker Buehler LAD ($9,800 DK, $10,800 FD) vs SEA

Walker Buehler (23.3% K-BB%, 30.1% CSW 2020-21) hasn’t been quite there yet in terms of velocity as his fastball is averaging 95.2 (96.8 last season). The same can be said for his cutter too as its current whiff rate of 25.5% is lagging just a little behind last year at 34.6%. And yet, he’s still been very productive with a 3.13 ERA and 0.94 WHIP across his first six starts. He’s coming off an excellent six-inning, eight K effort (32% CSW) against the Cubs his last time out. Tonight, the Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the board (-228) with the visiting Mariners pegged for a measly three-run implied total. The Mariners have the second-lowest team wOBA on the year at .291, just ahead of the Tigers. Losing the DH probably won’t help their cause much. 

Honorable Mentions: Marcus Stroman, NYM ($9,100 DK, $8,400 FD) vs BAL; Freddy Peralta, MIL ($9,400 DK, $8,600 FD) vs STL. 

 

Value SP: Brady Singer, KC ($5,700 DK, $7,800 FD) at DET

Brady Singer (14.5% K-BB%, 31.9% CSW 2020-21) gets the Tigers, a matchup we’ve been targeting a lot given their weak offense (.278 team wOBA and 29.6% team K rate). Singer is a pretty interesting pitcher in his own right in that he’s got just an 8.9% swinging K rate juxtaposed by a 31.1% CSW. And to that respect, Michael Ajeto took a look at Singer and his repertoire earlier this year so be sure to check it out if you missed it. The young righty has shown some upside this year most notably an eight K performance against these same Tigers back on April 24th. The Royals are decent road favorites tonight in Detroit (-130). At $5,700 on DraftKings, he gives you some flexibility with the rest of your lineup.

Dylan Cease (9.2% K-BB%, 26.5% CSW 2020-21) is absolutely worth mentioning too. He’s coming off a fairly convincing performance against the Reds his last time out which saw him stack up eleven K’s backed by an excellent 36.7% CSW. The Twins do have some power so there’s at least a little risk here given that Cease can still be erratic (12% BB rate this year).

Honorable Mention: Dylan Cease, CWS ($7,000 DK, $8,200 FD) vs MIN; Kenta Maeda, MIN ($7,600 DK, $7,300 FD) at CWS.

 

OF Trent Grisham, SD ($4,300 DK, $4,000 FD) at COL

Let’s just get the Coors game out of the way. Antonio Senzatela was originally scheduled to pitch Monday’s game which was postponed due to weather. As of this writing, the Rockies have yet to announce a starter for Tuesday’s game (Double-header scheduled for Wednesday) but assuming it is indeed Senzatela, it’ll be hard to look past Trent Grisham who will have the favorable lefty/righty matchup against Senzatela and his lackluster 6.6% K-BB% at the hitter’s haven that is Coors Field. Hitting either second or leadoff Grisham gives you cost-effective exposure to the Padres who have the top implied total on the board at just under five and a half runs. Speaking of Padres, Tommy Pham is also worth mentioning if he’s in there tonight at just $3,100 on DraftKings. The results have been ugly this year, but he’s still a very good hitter with a career .353 wOBA. 

Honorable Mentions: Wil Myers, OF ($4,200 DK, $3,500 FD) at COL; Eric Hosmer, 1B ($5,000 DK, $3,900 FD) at COL; Marcell Ozuna, *GPP* OF ($5,000 DK, $3,300 FD) vs TOR. 

 

OF Juan Soto, WAS ($5,300 DK, $4,000 FD) vs PHI

We could probably just call it a day with either Manny Machado or Fernando Tatís Jr at Coors but where’s the fun in that? I mentioned it earlier but the Nationals are set up to do some damage today. Against a specious RHP in Anderson, Juan Soto makes a lot of sense at $5,300 on DraftKings. 

Honorable Mentions: Manny Machado 3B ($5,300 DK, $4,100 FD) at COL; Fernando Tatís Jr, SS ($5,900 DK, $4,700 FD at COL; Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3B GPP ($5,400 DK, $4,000 FD) at ATL. 

 

Value Batter: OF Jorge Soler, KC ($3,200 DK, $2,600 FD) at DET

This is a fun one in the sense that you have two players on the opposite end of the variance spectrum. Jorge Soler is hitting under the Mendoza line, meanwhile, you’ve got Matthew Boyd, who is returning tonight from knee tendinitis, with an ERA sitting at 2.27 entering tonight’s contest. As far as Soler goes, despite the dreadful start, he’s still hitting the ball exceedingly hard, evidence being a 96.5 average EV on FB/LD. His 29.8% K rate on the year is also still in line with his career average of 28%. Boyd, on the other hand, has seen his K rate plummet all the way to 17.3% (22.2% last season) a product of his slider returning just a 20.8% whiff rate. We know that Boyd has had trouble with the long ball, as he surrendered 54 home runs from 2019-20 (18.6% HR/FB). And yet this year he has allowed just one home run so far this year. I have a sneaking suspicion he will not maintain his current 2.1% HR/FB rate. Soler will also get the benefit of facing what has been a dreadful Detroit pen so far.

If you want to ignore Soler I completely understand. In that case, the Nationals lineup looks like another source of potential value tonight. The Nats will be facing off against Phillies righty Chase Anderson who has managed just a 5.9% K-BB% so far this year. Josh Harrison has been a nice surprise so far for the Nationals slashing .291/.378/.442 across 98 PA. He’s shown an excellent 8.2% K rate so far too. Anderson has been a reverse splits pitcher allowing a .349 wOBA to righties for his career so Harrison, who’s been hitting second in front of Juan Soto, makes sense on paper. The four through six hitters here in Josh Bell, Starlin Castro, and Kyle Schwarber are all priced affordably as well. The Nationals implied total stands at just under five runs so don’t hesitate to look for value here against a struggling pitcher in Anderson.

I do think that despite the slow start Kyle Tucker’s salary has fallen to the point where he should be mentioned at the very least for tournaments. Shohei Ohtani, for as good as he can be, has also been very wild early on with an alarming 22.6% BB rate. The Astros seem to be in a sort of boom/bust spot tonight as they do have a standout implied total over four and a half runs.

If you aren’t playing Singer as a value pitcher, Nomar Mazara is an interesting play at just $200 above the minimum on DraftKings. His early batted ball numbers are promising including a 98.1 average EV on FB/LD.

Similarly, if you aren’t playing Cease, Trevor Larnach, whose shown plus power in the minor leagues, is the absolute minimum on DraftKings at just $2,000. 

Honorable Mentions: Josh Harrison, 2B/3B ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD) vs PHI; Kyle Schwarber, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,700 FD) vs PHI; Starlin Castro, 3B ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD) vs PHI; Josh Bell, 1B ($3,600 DK, $3,200 FD) vs PHI; Nomar Mazara, OF ($2,200 DK, $2,400 FD) vs KC; Trevor Larnach, OF ($2,000 DK, $2,000 FD) at CWS; Tommy Pham, OF ($3,100 DK) at COL; Kyle Tucker, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,800 FD) vs LAA; Avisaíl García ($2,900 DK, $2,800 FD) vs STL; Alec Bohm, 3B ($3,300 DK, $2,800 FD) at WAS. 

 

Top Stack: SD at COL (RHP Antonio Senzatela)

As much as I want to look elsewhere, it’s going to be tough to match the upside the Padres have at Coors today. Keep an eye on the weather, but otherwise, fire away here. The likely starter Senzatela shouldn’t provide much resistance given his lack of strikeout ability. Going by his splits, Senzatela has been a little more giving to lefties allowing a .363 wOBA to LHB going back to 2019 so as mentioned earlier Grisham makes a lot of sense as a stand-alone play along with Jake Cronenworth (career .366 wOBA) and Eric Hosmer (career .337 wOBA). Manny Machado  (career .356 wOBA) and Fernando Tatís Jr. (career .377 wOBA) are, of course, priority plays at the top of the order.

I do want to also mention the game in Atlanta as it features two powerful offenses against two sort of suspicious pitchers in Bryse Wilson and Robbie Ray. Of the two I’m more inclined to pick on the former in Wilson given his 1.8% K-BB so far although it is a very short sample of just three appearances. In which case, a Jays stack featuring Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not a bad idea at all in tournaments.

Ray, on the other hand, in a somewhat surprising turn of events has managed to trim his walks down to a tolerable 7.8%. Blair Williams speculated on the idea of a revitalized Ray a couple of weeks back. Still, the Braves should be on the radar as a boom/bust tournament stack at least considering Ray’s 4.86 ERA and 1.47 WHIP from 2019-20 (226 IP). The Braves implied total stands at just under five runs. 

Honorable Mentions: TOR at ATL GPP (Wilson); ATL vs TOR GPP (Ray); HOU vs LAA GPP (Ohtani); WAS vs PHI (Anderson). 

 

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