It’s another short Thursday slate; five games on DraftKings and six on FanDuel with the latter opting to include the Nationals/Marlins contest in their game set, which begins at 6:40 EST.
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.
Gerrit Cole: ($ 10,400 DK, $10,800 FD): vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 102 pitches.
Max Fried: ($ 9,500 DK, $9,800 FD): @ COL (ND) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 102 pitches.
Cole and Fried lead the way as tonight’s two largest favorites. Cole’s higher salary is warranted considering his substantial edge in K rate (31.5% versus 22.1%). But Fried has the benefit of hosting the Pirates who have the third-highest K rate in baseball along with the fourth-lowest wOBA at .291. So, if you’re looking to squeeze in an extra bat, taking the savings with Fried could pay off.
Shohei Ohtani ($8,100 DK, $9,900 FD): @ NYY (L) – 3.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 12% CSW, 75 pitches.
Ohtani is coming off a rough outing against the Yankees, but he’s very much underpriced relative to his strikeout ability; both his 15.1% SwStr % and 32.1% CSW % compare favorably to Cole. But the Yankee ace comes at a much higher salary having netted much more consistent results. Tonight, Ohtani and the Angels host the Red Sox who have been a top 10 offense so far with a .320 wOBA and 107 wRC+.
Nick Pivetta ($8,400 DK, $9,100 FD): @ OAK (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 100 pitches.
Since the calendar flipped to May, which includes his last seven starts, Pivetta has allowed just two home runs. Which, if you’ve been following the former Phillie, is very un-Pivetta-like. I’m still pretty skeptical about Pivetta in the long run considering we’re talking about someone who has a 5.00 ERA for his career (623 IP). But, this is a short slate and choices are slim. And, plus the Angels did roll out a ghastly-looking lineup last night that featured Matt Duffy as the cleanup man followed by Juan Lagares. Shudders.
Konnor Pilkington ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD): vs KC (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 91 pitches.
Pilkington looks like the last playable option tonight. The rookie left-hander is making his third start, so there’s not much to go by. So far, he’s at least shown some strikeout ability with eight in his latest start against the Royals. That should lead him to be a relatively popular SP 2 as a sizable home favorite (-181) against the A’s, who have baseball’s worst team wOBA at .266.
Bats and Stacks
- ATL (5.4 implied run total) vs PIT JT Brubaker (RHP) 12.3 K-BB%, 4.70 ERA, 1.45 WHIP: After scoring 13 last night, Atlanta will likely be one of the more popular stacks on the slate. They’ll get Brubaker, who owns a 5.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for his career. Outside of the superstar at the top, Matt Olson sticks out the most considering he’ll have the platoon advantage against the righty.
- CLE (5.3 implied run total) vs OAK James Kaprielian (RHP) 6.4% K-BB%, 6.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP: Kaprielian has struggled through his first seven starts; Lefties have tagged him for a .375 wOBA. José Ramírez is, of course, one of the best spends on the slate, but don’t forget about Josh Naylor (.372 xwOBA) or Andrés Giménez (.364 xwOBA). Right-handed hitting Oscar González is a punt option at $2,200 on DK.
- NYY (4.9 implied run total) at MIN Dylan Bundy (RHP) 14.4% K-BB%, 5.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP: The Yankees laid an egg last night against the ghost of Chris Archer, but they’re in a potential bounce-back spot against Bundy, who comes into tonight’s start with a career-low K rate of 19.1%. Bundy might be a little unlucky so far considering his 5.57 ERA is backed by a 3.81 xERA. Still, the Yankees lead baseball in home runs and you’d be hard-pressed to find a pitcher who has struggled more with the longball over his career than the former Oriole.
- BAL (4.9 implied run total) at KC Kris Bubic (LHP) -1.1% K-BB%, 9.33 ERA, 2.07 WHIP: Speaking of Orioles, they’ll get a chance to stack up some runs against the struggling left-hander Bubic, who recently returned to the rotation following a brief banishment to the pen. A -1.1% K-BB% tells you all you need to know.
- WSN (3.8 implied run total) at MIA Trevor Rogers (LHP) 8.9% K-BB%, 5.80 ERA, 1.56 WHIP: The Nats don’t have a standout total, but considering how much Rogers has struggled so far, they might be an interesting lineup to choose from for tournaments on FanDuel. Nelson Cruz remains affordable at $3,200.
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram