Happy Monday! As usual, we are kicking off the week with another DFS affair. This slate is a tantalizing one because all 13-games on the day are on the main slate. That’s right; we get to choose from every player today. Oddly, we may not want to do that for pitching. Even with 26 SPs, there are nowhere near enough trustworthy ones for cash games. Furthermore, the matchups don’t particularly favor anyone either. Coors Field will be in effect today, and the Slam Diego Padres will try and Gomber the slate. So, whether you’re playing cash or GPP. We have it all; good luck!
Implied Run Totals
- PIT @ WAS looks like there is a chance of rain near the conclusion of the game. However, the warmups and first pitch will start dry.
- TOR @ BOS has the strongest chance of seeing rain tonight. Although much like [email protected], the rain likely won’t start until the back end of the game.
Cash Game Starting Pitcher
|Tyler Glasnow||@ CWS||$10,700||$10,800|
|Lance Lynn||vs. TB||$9,900||$11,000|
|Sean Manaea||vs. LAA||$10,100||$9,900|
Tyler Glasnow has elevated his game to the next level with the introduction of a slider. With a 30% usage rate, quickly, this pitch has become a favorite. The slider carries a 36.1% CSW and batters are only hitting .204 against it. Additionally, the curveball has an even better 36.7% CSW and opponents have just a .083 batting average against his second breaking ball. Therefore, his matchup against the White Sox shouldn’t scare too many off. Because of the few options and Glasnow’s dominance, he will likely be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate.
On the other side of Glasnow, we have Lance Lynn. Outside of Lynn’s first start of the season, he has gone past the fifth inning in every game. Lynn continues to rack up the strikeouts while his pitch count has not been as high as usual. His 9.87 K/9 over 65 innings pitched should help solidify a high enough strikeout total to put him in the conversation of being a cash game SP. Furthermore, the Tampa Bay Rays strike out at a 26% rate, slightly above league-average.
The last cash game SP is Sean Manaea, who is the scariest of the trio. Among the three, Manaea is the only one that doesn’t feature a blistering fastball, although the added velocity on his sinker is fueling the uptick in strikeouts (7.5 K/9 in 2020, 8.68 K/9 in 2021). Success for Manaea will rely on his ability to get ahead with the fastball and dotting the corners with his changeup and curveball. Last, another reason for Manaea’s success will be his pitch count. Oakland has let him loose, and he has tossed over 90 pitches for five consecutive games. His matchup is a challenging one, so he needs to be pinpoint tonight.
GPP Starting Pitchers
Tier One “GPP Potentials”
|Alek Manoah||@ BOS||$8,200||$9,000|
|Nathan Eovaldi||vs. TOR||$8,600||$8,800|
|Adam Wainwright||vs. MIA||$8,800||$7,800|
Alek Manoah looked strong in his last game, as he handled the Chicago White Sox. He struck out four over five IP while keeping the basepaths relatively clean. Today will be another daunting task as he squares off against another elite offense, the Boston Red Sox. However, he was able to run the pitch count to 90, which is a good sign because he boasts a 10.05 K/9 over 14 innings pitched.
Any pitcher facing Vladito and company should be worried. The Blue Jays have the highest hard-hit rate of any team in the MLB and continue to put up crooked numbers. The world knows this, and that is why Nathan Eovaldi could end up as a terrific SP for any GPP format. The erratic style of Eovaldi is a little concerning, and the lack of Ks can get him in trouble. However, his FIP is a tiny 2.63, and even a 3.83 SIERA shows he could knock the high-flying Blue Jays out of the air. It all depends on which Eovaldi will show up.
Adam Wainwright is a pretty boring SP for GPP plays. He doesn’t blow you away with elite pitch movement or electric velocity. However, he does do exactly what we need him to do-get batters out! In 73.2 IPs, Waino carries an 8.19 K/9 and 48.6% GB rate. Good, not great, but we will take it. Additionally, the Marlins might help Wainwright because, vs. RHP, they strike out nearly 26% of the time and don’t put the ball over the fences enough (.135 ISO).
Tier Two “GPP Wild Cards”
|Alex Wood||vs ARI||$8,500||$7,800|
|Tony Gonsolin||vs. PHI||$9,100||$6,700|
|Dylan Bundy||@ OAK||$8,400||$7,000|
|David Peterson||vs CHC||$7,600||$6,000|
|Kenta Maeda||@ SEA||$7,400||$6,600|
|Matthew Boyd||@ KC||$6,800||$7,200|
|Jake Arrieta||@ NYM||$6,900||$6,800|
A couple of names jump out immediately (Kenta Maeda and Tony Gonsolin). While both have the ability to put up a huge day, we have to consider that neither is ramped up enough to go deep into the game. Additionally, neither ballclub has a reason to push those two SPs. Big names like them typically get plenty of roster%, so I moved them down a notch,
Over the previous two starts, Alex Wood can’t seem to find his slider. The lack of this secondary offering leads to two disastrous outings with a missing component: strikeouts. His matchup is favorable since the Diamondbacks struggle vs. RHP. The D-backs carry an 84 wRC+ and meager .136 ISO.
Judging by Oakland’s implied run total, Dylan Bundy should get slaughtered today. However, Bundy went 5.2 IP in both games in his previous two outings and looked viable again. He needs to lean heavily on his two breaking balls to keep the Athletics from making hard contact on his fastball, which doesn’t have blow-by velocity. So which Bundy will we see today? I can’t say for sure, which is why he sits in the GPP wild card tier.
Any time there is a game in Coors Field, the field immediately makes that the chalk. The park allows the most runs and even the meager hitting Rockies end up with higher than usual roster%. Furthermore, the San Diego Padres will definitely be in a lot of lineups; cash games and GPP. My suggestion, use either team for cash games and avoid for GPPs unless you’re going very different with your SPs.
As far are the rest of the stacks on the slate, I would say any and all are in play. There are not any absolute lockdown SPs on the slate. Sure, Glasnow and Lynn are terrific pitchers but both can throw a clunker against their respective matchups. My suggestion would be to look at the implied run total section and find a team with a high run total against a suspect SP option. Example: MIL (4.92 implied run total) vs. Vladimir Gutierrez.
- Rowdy Tellez 1B ($2,7000 DK, $2,000) should fit into the Blue Jays lineup today. While Eovaldi has his sights set on getting past Bichette, Vlad, and Teoscar, maybe he slips up and hangs one over the plate. Tellez is barreling the ball at a 13.6% clip. Consider him a boom or bust play today!
- The second base position is usually not the place to look for points, so finding a value play there is smart. That is where Dylan Moore 2B/OF ($2,600 DK, $2,000 FD) comes into the mix. Moore has collected a hit in both games since returning from the IL. Additionally, he is still running, going 1-for-2 in SB attempts. Grab him while the sportsbooks haven’t adjusted yet.
- Alec Bohm 3B ($2,800 DK, $2,300 FD) faces off against Gonsolin, and while Tony G might be terrific, we don’t know which version will show up. Even more so, Bohm has been an enigma as well. His xBA is 40 points lower than the .224 BA shows, yet he carries a near 50% hard-hit rate and 8% barrel rate. So I wouldn’t expect his roster% to be very high.
- Mike Tauchman OF ($2,900 DK, $2,100 FD) could get bumped into the leadoff spot with a right-handed Matt Peacock on the mound. Peacock loves to pound the zone, and Tauchman sits in the 96th percentile in chase rate. If Tauchman gets the nod higher in the batting order, he should easily outproduce his salary.
- Tony Kemp 2B/OF ($2,800 DK, $2,000 FD) will likely not take one out of the yard. However, he’ll get on base and with some real havoc, he might! Against RHP, Kemp touts a .284/.381/.432 slash line with a .814 OPS. Furthermore, he squares off against Dylan Bundy, who can implode at any time.
Featured image by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)