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Top SP: Dylan Bundy, LAA ($10,300 DK, $9,100 FD) vs SEA
Dylan Bundy was solid in his last start going 5.2 innings while collecting six strikeouts (30% CSW) and allowing two earned runs. Bundy has easily the highest K-BB% of the slate at 23.7%. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been just about an average offense with a team wOBA of .317 against righties, good for 17th. The one thing worth keeping an eye on is the Mariners lineup because Bundy has shown some really pronounced splits this season. Against righties he’s posted a mammoth 36.6% K rate, while against lefties that number plummets to just 22.2%.
Lance Lynn has been nothing short of a rock this season consistently throwing 100+ pitches every outing and posting an excellent 20.5% K-BB%. But tonight he draws his toughest match-up so far against the Dodgers, who have both the lowest team K rate and highest team wOBA against RHP.
Honorable Mentions: Lance Lynn, TEX ($9,200 DK, $9,500 FD) vs LAD.
Value SP: Luke Weaver, ARI ($7,600 DK, $7,100 FD) vs SF
After a rough beginning, Luke Weaver (17.1% K-BB% this year) has put together two respectable outings his latest being on the road against these same Giants where he went 5.2 innings allowing two runs while collecting five strikeouts (31% CSW). The Giants don’t strike out much, just a 22.1% team K rate vs RHP (21st) but they are an otherwise unimposing offense with just a .308 team wOBA against RHP (24th).
Trevor Cahill on the other side of this game might be interesting because of a lack of options in the bottom tier and the fact that he just shut down these same Diamondbacks. But it might be a good idea to tread lightly here. Maintaining a 31.1% K rate on the back of just an 8.7% swinging K rate seems untenable. A 15.6% BB rate and 94.3% LOB is pretty suspect as well.
Honorable Mention: Justus Sheffield, SEA ($7,300 DK, $8,300 FD) at LAA.
OF Christian Yelich, MIL ($5,100 DK, $4,200 FD) vs PIT
According to the projections at FTN we should be looking at Brewers bats this evening as they have an implied total of five and a half runs just behind the Padres and Rockies at the top. Pirates righty J.T. Brubaker pitched reasonably well his last time out against these same Brewers going four innings while collecting six strikeouts. But, we should be skeptical as he doesn’t have any real prospect pedigree (40 Future Value via FanGraphs), and his modest 23.3% K rate in Triple-A last year doesn’t indicate a major upside arm. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Brewers get to him early their second time facing him this week. Both Fernando Tatís Jr and Trevor Story are phenomenal top plays at Coors Field, but so too is Christian Yelich who comes in at a decent discount.
Honorable Mentions: Fernando Tatís Jr , SS ($6,100 DK, $4,900 FD) at COL; Trevor Story, SS ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD) vs SD; Juan Soto, OF ($5,700 DK, $4,700 FD) at BOS; Rafael Devers, 3B ($4,900 DK, $3,400 FD) vs WAS.
OF Trent Grisham, SD ($4,800 DK, $3,800 FD) at COL
Welcome to chalk city. You’re going to see a ton of Padres this evening, but with good reason, one they’ve legitimately been one of the best offenses in all of baseball and two they’re at Coors against Antonio Senzatela. The Friar’s leadoff man Trent Grisham was quiet in last night’s 10-run outburst but he’ll have a chance to boom here tonight now that he’s on the plus side of his platoon. So far this season Grisham has a .419 wOBA against righties.
Here is where we should acknowledge that Senzatela has pitched a little better this year than in year’s past, adding some velocity on his fastball and we’ve seen a jump in whiff rate on both his slider and curveball but at the end of the day this is still a sub 20% K rate, fringe type pitcher at best and, well it’s Coors Field. You’d have to be surprised to see him blank this type of offense here.
Honorable Mentions: Keston Hiura, 2B ($5,000 DK, $3,600 FD) vs PIT, Wil Myers, OF ($4,300 DK, $3,500 FD) at COL; Ketel Marte, 2B ($4,900 DK, $3,000 FD) vs SF; Asdrubal Cabrera, 1B/3B ($4,600 DK, $2,800 FD) at BOS.
Value Batter: OF Adam Eaton, WAS ($3,400 DK, $2,800 FD) at BOS
After putting up ten runs last night, why not pick on Boston again? The righty Chris Mazza will get the nod for the Red Sox. Things did not go swimmingly in his first start as he allowed four runs over three innings to the Yankees. Going back to his Triple-A numbers last season, the thirty-year-old rookie had a K rate just barely over 20% and in his short stint in the majors, he produced an 8.1% K-BB% to go along with a 5.51 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Currently projected to score just under six runs, we shouldn’t be too stingy with Nationals bats. Adam Eaton hasn’t been great this year but he’ll hold the platoon advantage and will likely be hitting 2nd.
Honorable Mentions: Justin Smoak, 1B ($3,300 DK, $2,900 FD) vs PIT; Shin-Soo Choo, OF ($3,000 DK, $2,800 FD) vs LAD; David Peralta, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,900 FD) vs SF; Jo Adell, OF ($2,400 DK, $2,100 FD) vs SEA; Brandon Belt, OF ($3,500 DK) at ARI; Howie Kendrick, 1B ($3,800 DK, $2,700 FD) at BOS; Avisaíl García, OF ($3,700 DK, $2,800 FD) vs PIT; Víctor Robles ($2,800 DK, $2,400 FD) at BOS.
Lineup Stack: Nationals at Boston Red Sox (RHP Chris Mazza)
The Coors game will get a ton of attention as always. We already mentioned the Padres side of it earlier as they’ll face the average at best Senzatela. The Rockies will face the rookie lefty, Adrian Morejon. He’s only made two appearances and peaked at 39 pitches so expect to see plenty of the Padres bullpen. The Rockies stack is, of course, absolutely in play.
For tonight’s stack, we’ll go with the Nationals who will be in Boston facing the righty Mazza. Has mentioned earlier this is a thirty-year-old rookie who is being thrust into a tough spot basically because the Red Sox have no one else to turn to at this point. The obvious plays of Juan Soto (Career .416 wOBA vs RHP) and Trea Turner (Career .357 wOBA vs RHP) are at the top with Eaton (Career .350 wOBA vs RHP) mentioned earlier as a value. Victor Robles is a potential power/speed punt play at the bottom of the order best suited for tournaments. Eric Thames has hit RHP well for his career with a .351 wOBA. He’s another boom/bust play to include when stacking in tournaments. With the season-ending injury to Starlin Castro, Asdrubal Cabrera has emerged as a middle of the order staple for the Nationals and he’s been productive with a .343 wOBA (.345 xwOBA) so far this year making him a play for all formats. Howie Kendrick, in addition to Eaton, is a very strong value play if he’s in. He’s been hurt this year but last year he was huge for this team posting a .400 wOBA (.426 xwOBA) in 370 PA.
Honorable Mentions: MIL vs PIT (Brubaker); SD at COL (Senzatela); BOS vs WAS (Sánchez); COL vs SD (Morejon).
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)