Tuesday sees all thirty teams in action. Note that there are two double-header games that are only included on DraftKings, one being the Brewers at Cubs, which was postponed last night. The other is the Blue Jays at Angels. With so many games on the schedule I’m going to ignore both of them tonight.
The Top Tier
We start things off in what looks like tonight’s premier pitching duel with Max Scherzer and the Dodgers visiting the Phillies and Aaron Nola. So how did Scherzer look in his Dodgers debut? Seven innings, two earned runs, 109 pitches, and ten Ks backed by a silly good 39.4% CSW. Against the Astros, no less. Not bad. Overall, his 28.1% K-BB% on the year leads the field by a considerable distance and is the clear priority play at the top tonight.
Aaron Nola is the home underdog in that same game and is coming off a meh sort of start against the Nationals his last time out (five IP, five ER, seven K’s, 28.3% CSW). The salary gap between him and Scherzer should probably be a little bigger than it currently is, leaving Nola as a contrarian option for tournaments. Justin Turner (groin) should be out of the lineup tonight.
Alex Wood has the benefit of being a massive home favorite (-225) against a dead duck D-Backs team that is fifth from the bottom in team wOBA at .298. But skills-wise, he does seem a shade overpriced on DraftKings.
At just about the same price on DraftKings, Logan Gilbert is in an almost identical sort of spot as Wood going against a divisional opponent that is just playing out the string, in this case the Rangers. The Mariners are big favorites tonight (-206) against the Rangers who have the worst team wOBA in baseball on the year at .288.
Ignoring his 2019 season (just 29.2 IP), this season’s 26.9% K rate has been easily the highest of Sean Manaea’s career. He’s really been one of this year’s standouts in every phase, especially in his efficiency with just a 5.5% BB rate on the year. His last time out was an unimpressive start against the Padres, however, his body of work so far this year warrants a bigger gap between him and the likes of Gilbert and Wood. If you’re working on DraftKings and you find yourself in that price range, I do think it’s worthwhile going up just a little bit to Manaea in lieu of Wood or Gilbert. The latter two make more sense from a value perspective on FanDuel, where they’re coming in at a bigger discount relative to Manaea.
Value/Mid-Tier Pitchers
In terms of salary relative to his skills, Zac Gallen should 100% pique your interest at just $7,100 on DraftKings. He was at 109 pitches his last time out (also against the Giants) which is very good to see considering the injuries he’s had this year (hamstring, elbow). But, he finds himself as a huge road underdog against a Giants offense that has been both very productive (.328 team wOBA, fifth) and has already gotten to him twice this year. Still, he certainly has the skills to succeed and as we’ll see the other options here aren’t too exciting.
Carlos Carrasco is one of the biggest favorites on the board as the Mets play host to what should be a Nationals team that could be without their one big threat in Juan Soto once again as he deals with a knee injury. Carrasco has been fairly decent in his two appearances so far this year but he was limited to just 62 pitches his last time out and that’s not exactly what we’re looking for.
Triston McKenzie is another option, although only in tournaments, as he’s been every bit of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, more so the latter.
Luis Patiño is an exciting young pitcher who you should keep a close eye on the rest of the way. Tonight, though, he faces a tough Boston lineup at Fenway Park, so it’s difficult to get too excited about him.
The Astros being big home favorites (-177) against the road Rockies forces me to begrudgingly acknowledge Jake Odorizzi as a potential option. However, he has not distinguished himself in a couple of recent matchups with favorable opponents in the Mariners and Rangers.
Bats and Stacks
- CWS (5.6) at Griffin Jax (RHP) 7.4% K-BB, .338 xwOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.94 xERA: The additions of Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert add a ton of upside to this lineup. They were also one of the few teams in action last night and they put up a big score, so we should probably expect a lot of traffic here tonight. Andrew Vaughn is another strong value here if he’s in the lineup.
- NYY (5.8) at Daniel Lynch (LHP) 9.0% K-BB%, .387 xwOBA, 1.59 WHIP, 6.79 xERA: A wacky extra innings marathon last night could force the Royals to try and squeeze some length out of Lynch. There’s big upside with the righty power in Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit. If you’re stacking in tournaments, Joey Gallo is the auto include, as you should be getting a discount in roster percentage as he faces the lefty.
- BAL (5.0) vs. Casey Mize (RHP) 12.6% K-BB%, .343 xwOBA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.11 xERA: Mize has not been bad by any means, but I do think he has overperformed to a degree and this is just a fantastic park for power in Camden Yards with good hitting weather tonight, too. There’s some potential cheap value with bats like Anthony Santander, DJ Stewart, and Austin Hays. I would look more so to the lefties as Mize has allowed a .366 xwOBA to them this year. Cedric Mullins fits the bill hitting leadoff if you have more to spend and are looking to be different in tournaments.
- DET (5.1) at Keegan Akin (LHP) 11.3% K-BB%, .357 xwOBA, 1.74 WHIP, 5.60 xERA: The Tigers aren’t often installed with a total over five so they should be on your radar. As mentioned, it’s a great environment for runs plus don’t pretend like you can resist a Jonathan Schoop revenge game.
- NYM (5.2) vs. Paolo Espino (RHP) 13.7% K-BB%, .324 xwOBA, 1.10 WHIP, 4.49 xERA: Espino is a regression candidate, and while the Met offense has been bad, there’s still some power here. Awful year aside, I still like Michael Conforto as a punt considering his long track record against RHP. He’s been vastly underperforming with a .305 wOBA backed by a .358 xwOBA.
- CIN (4.8) at Drew Smyly (LHP) 12% K-BB, .337 xwOBA, 1.41 WHIP, 4.91 xERA: Smyly hasn’t been someone to avoid and the Reds have been one of the best offenses in baseball all year (.332 team wOBA, third). A shift away from their friendly home confines of GABP should lead to a potential discount in terms of roster % in tournaments.
- STL (5.1) at Steven Brault (LHP) 6.3% K-BB%, .371 xwOBA, 1.00 WHIP, 6.13 xERA- We haven’t seen much of Brault this year but a career 4.65 ERA and 1.51 WHIP (319.2 IP) gives us an idea. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are potential spends in tournaments, while Tyler O’Neill is underpriced relative to his upside on DraftKings ($3,500).
- PIT (4.5) vs. J.A. Happ (LHP) 10.5% K-BB%, .362 xwOBA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.79 xERA- Happ has portrayed the role of pitcher piñata with aplomb all year. As he returns to his old stamping grounds, you should consider Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds in tournaments.
- HOU (5.0) vs. Jonathan Gray (RHP) 12.3% K-BB%, .293 xwOBA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.61 xERA: To his credit, Gray has been very good all year, however, this is still a lineup that can easily break a slate and swing tournaments. Kyle Tucker (.395 xwOBA) stands out the most on DraftKings at just $4,000.
Value Bats
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