Finally! Opening day is here and brings us a seven-game slate on DraftKings. Over on FanDuel, they’ve opted to include the Cubs’ home opener pushing their slate to eight games. Note that we’ve also got two cancellations as some not-so-great April weather has taken both the Yankees’ and Twins’ home openers off the board. The Nationals’ home opener, which was originally scheduled for 4 PM EST, has been pushed back to 7 PM EST due to weather concerns and it looks like there could still be some rain in the forecast this evening in D.C., so be sure to keep an eye on that.
Top Tier Pitching
| Opp | Salary DK/FD | ML | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | vs CIN | $9,000/ $9,300 | -195 | 165.2 | 17.5% | 27.9% | 11.1% | 1.09 | 3.04 |
| Shane Bieber | at KC | $8,300/ $10,400 | -124 | 96.2 | 24.9% | 33.5% | 16.2% | 1.21 | 3.17 |
| Yu Darvish | at ARI | $9,500/ $9,400 | -161 | 166.1 | 22.8% | 30.3% | 12.1% | 1.09 | 4.22 |
| Corbin Burnes | at CHC | $11,200 | -178 | 167 | 30.4% | 33.8% | 16.6% | 0.94 | 2.43 |
Shane Bieber makes his return after a shoulder strain caused him to miss much of last year and gets the Royals in the opener who last year ranked 25th in team wOBA. His $8,300 price on DraftKings looks like one of the best values of the day.
Corbin Burnes is only available on the FanDuel slate. He’ll get the Cubs in the opener a team that last season had the league’s worst K rate at 26.7%. In his final spring outing, Burnes got through six innings against the Mariners and allowed one run on two hits with no walks.
Max Fried’s strikeout rate pales in comparison to the other options in this tier today, but working in his favor is that he’s the biggest favorite (-195) on the board and faces a Reds lineup that recently traded one of its best hitters in Jesse Winker.
You might recall that Yu Darvish is coming off a lopsided 2021 that saw him struggle in the second half of the season. The hope for the tall righty is that an offseason spent recovering from an ailing back while also ironing out his mechanics can pay dividends. He gets the D-Backs, who last year were 26th in team wOBA.
Mid-Tier/Value Pitching
| Opp | Salary DK/FD | ML | IP | K-BB% | CSW% | SwStr% | WHIP | ERA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | vs HOU | $7,000/ $10,500 | -129 | 130.1 | 21% | 26.1% | 12.9% | 1.09 | 3.18 |
| Adam Wainwright | vs PIT | $7,300/ $8,000 | -192 | 206.1 | 15% | 29.8% | 8.1% | 1.06 | 3.05 |
| Tylor Megill | at WSN | $7,600/ $6,800 | -132 | 89.2 | 19% | 26.8% | 12.1% | 1.28 | 4.52 |
Shohei Ohtani gets a challenging, opening assignment against the Astros whose .336 team wOBA was second in baseball last year. Still, the $7,000 price tag on DraftKings should make him a very popular SP 2 choice. In his final spring start, he threw 65 pitches and should be good for somewhere between 85-90 in what will be his first career Opening Day start.
Adam Wainwright gets a great opening matchup against the Pirates who were 28th in team wOBA last season. They were, however, stingy in terms of strikeouts with the 24th lowest team K rate at 22.2%.
Tylor Megill gets the opening day assignment for the Mets as Max Scherzer recovers from a hamstring issue. Megill carried a 26.1% K rate last season across 18 starts last season and could be a value SP 2 to consider provided he can dance around Juan Soto.
Bats and Stacks
- ATL (5.1 implied run total) vs CIN Tyler Mahle (RHP) 19.2 K-BB%, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP: Atlanta is, of course, still without Ronald Acuña Jr. But, they can still stack up plenty of power. Mahle to his credit pitched well last year, but he did have some interesting splits: a .357 wOBA to RHB as opposed to just .257 to LHB.
- SD (5.1 implied run total) at ARI Madison Bumgarner (LHP) 13.9 K-BB%, 4.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP: Bumgarner has an ERA over 5.00 in his first two seasons in Arizona combined, although he has at least shown better velocity this spring. Luke Voit and his career .368 wOBA are very affordable on both sites.
- STL (4.9 implied run total) vs. PIT JT Brubaker (RHP) 16.9 K-BB%, 5.36 ERA, 1.29 WHIP: Brubaker might have deserved a better fate than last year’s 5.36 ERA considering some of his indicators, but even still, he’s one of the weaker arms going today as all the major projection systems have him pegged with an ERA north of 4.50 this season. Paul Goldschmidt (.373 wOBA) and Tyler O’Neill (.384 wOBA) were both top 20 in wOBA among qualifiers last season and look like two excellent spends for all formats. The lefty Nolan Gorman is a potential punt play at 2B and has shown impressive power in the minor leagues.
- CLE (4.3 implied run total) at KC Zack Greinke (RHP) 12.1 K-BB, 4.16 ERA, 1.17 WHIP: You know the two big bats here in Franmil Reyes and José Ramírez, but Steven Kwan should also be on your radar as a punt play. The 24-year-old had a fantastic spring and while he might not have a ton of over-the-fence power, the man can flat out hit as evidenced by his .311 batting average and unbelievable 6.7% K rate last year across 26 games with Triple-A Columbus.
- NYM (4.9 implied run total) at WSN Patrick Corbin (LHP) 11.1 K-BB%, 5.82 ERA, 1.47 WHIP: Corbin’s struggles are well documented including a .387 wOBA allowed to RHB last year. The southpaw has looked at least a little bit better this spring as he’s gotten some velocity back after tweaking his mechanics in hopes of rediscovering his 2019 form. Still, Pete Alonso is certainly on the radar for all formats. J.D. Davis has shown power in the past and is a potential 3B punt if he is in the lineup. The weather, however, is not ideal for baseball purposes with some potential light rain along with temps in the low 50s.
- MIL (5.8 implied run total) at CHC Kyle Hendricks (RHP) 11.1 K-BB%, 4.77 ERA, 1.35 WHIP: There looks like a fairly decent wind blowing out in Wrigley Field today which is reflected in the Brewers’ total of just under six runs making them a team to target on FanDuel. Hendricks was significantly worse against LHB last season with a .377 wOBA allowed. On the other side of this game, I can’t bring myself to attack Burnes but if you’re multi-entering in a tournament and want to play the roster % game, taking a chance on a Cubs hitter could provide some leverage.
- HOU (4.1 implied run total) at LAA Shohei Ohtani (RHP) 21 K-BB%, 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP: Just for tournaments, considering how popular Ohtani figures to be as an SP 2 on DraftKings, there could be some potential leverage if you’re looking to be contrarian with the likes of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Álvarez.
*Note: All stats referenced are from last season.
Value Bats
| Position | Opp | DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jo Adell | OF | vs HOU (Valdez) | $2,500 | $2,700 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 3B | vs CLE (Bieber) | $2,300 | $2,400 |
| J.D. Davis | 3B | at WSN (Corbin) | $2,600 | $2,100 |
| Steven Kwan | OF | at KC (Greinke) | $2,200 | $2,000 |
| Luke Voit | 1B | at ARI (Bumgarner) | $3,500 | $2,500 |
| Austin Nola | C | at ARI (Bumgarner) | $3,200 | $2,200 |
| César Hernández | 2B | vs NYM (Megill) | $2,900 | $2,400 |
| Nolan Gorman | 2B | vs PIT (Brubaker) | $2,000 | $2,000 |
| Wil Myers | OF | at ARI (Bumgarner) | $3,400 | $2,600 |