Tuesday brings a massive thirteen-game slate featuring three aces at the top and several offenses primed to put up crooked numbers in the run column.
Top SP: Lucas Giolito, CWS ($9,500 DK, $10,600 FD) vs DET
If anything Lucas Giolito’s most recent start just proves that baseball wasn’t meant to be played in 40-degree weather at 11 o’clock in the morning. For whatever reason, his changeup was off and Boston seemed ready for it. Regardless, going back to 2019 (267.2 IP) Giolito owns a 3.60 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 15.7% Swinging K rate, 31.6% CSW, and 24.1% K-BB rate. The White Sox are tonight’s biggest favorite (-238). The visiting Tigers meanwhile, own what is thus far the worst team K rate at 29.1%. This has all the making of a bounce-back spot.
If you’re a little leery of Giolito after the Boston massacre, Max Scherzer (28.5% K-BB rate, 31.9% CSW) gets a bit of a tougher assignment, on paper at least, against the Jays in Dunedin. Roughly four weeks in the Jays team wOBA is surprisingly low at just .293 (27th). Though, that will certainly change once they get some key players back from injury. The Nationals are modest road favorites this evening (-130).
Value SP: Frankie Montas, OAK ($7,300 DK, $7,400 FD) at TB
Frankie Montas (18.4% K-BB rate, 28.8% CSW 2019-21) gets a solid matchup against the Rays who have struck out at a 26.3% clip (eighth worst) this year. The Rays are an above-average offense going back to last year (.325 team wOBA) but Montas is one of the few value options that has shown both K upside with a 25.5% K rate over his last three seasons while providing a chance at length with 100 pitches thrown in two of his first four starts.
José Quintana (14.4% K-BB rate, 26.7% CSW 2019-21) gets the Rangers and their 28.6% team K rate (second worst). Aaron Sanchez (8.3% K-BB rate, 25.9% CSW) gets the coveted road Rockies, although his limited pitch count and lack of strikeout ability puts a clamp on his ceiling.
Honorable Mention: José Quintana, LAA ($6,500 DK, $6,700 FD) at TEX.
SS Fernando Tatís Jr, SD ($5,400 DK, $4,400 FD) at ARI
Merrill Kelly (13.3% K-BB rate, 26.8% CSW 2019-21) has struggled out of the gate with a 7.71 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through his first four starts. That’s backed by a 7.31 xERA, .421 xwOBA allowed, and 8.4% K-BB rate. After setting records against the Dodgers and their premium pitching, the sky’s the limit for Fernando Tatís Jr against a suspect, at best, Diamondbacks staff. As of this writing, the Padres are one of the three teams tonight with an implied total at or over five runs.
Honorable Mentions: Corey Seager SS ($5,100 DK, $3,600 FD) vs CIN; Ronald Acuña Jr OF ($6,200 DK, $4,100 FD) vs CHC.
OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4,700 DK, $3,700 FD) at BAL
The Yankees should be massively popular as they almost always are every time they travel to Camden Yards. They have tonight’s biggest implied total at five and a half runs as they are set to face the lefty Bruce Zimmermann (10.7% K-BB rate, 26.3% CSW 2020-21) who made his debut last season. He’s only thrown 28.2 innings thus far so there’s not a ton to sift through, a glance at his minor league numbers shows a modest 18.9% K rate during his stint in Triple-A back in 2019. This has more to do with Giancarlo Stanton’s prodigious numbers against lefties for his career a .293/ .390/ .625 slash and .420 wOBA.
Honorable Mentions: Yoán Moncada, 3B ($5,000 DK, $3,400 FD) vs DET; Alex Bregman, 3B ($5,200 DK, $3,800 FD) vs SEA.
Value Batter: 1B Brandon Belt, SF ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD) vs COL
For his career, Brandon Belt owns a career .357 wOBA and 128 wRC+ against RHP. Sorting tonight’s probable starters by K-BB rate brings us to Chi-Chi Gonzalez. The righty owns a 4.6% K-BB rate from 2019-21 (97.2 IP) putting him second from the bottom tonight relative to his probable peers. The Giants aren’t usually an offense that carries much popularity especially so when at home in Oracle. But tonight they find themselves in a reasonably decent spot with a 4.5 implied run total against a suspect arm. Belt will have the splits in his favor hitting in the heart of the order against Gonzalez who has allowed a .368 wOBA to LHB going back to 2019.
Honorable Mentions: Austin Riley, 3B ($3,300 DK, $2,300 FD) vs CHC, Gavin Lux, 2B ($3,400 DK, $2,000 FD) vs CIN; Avisaíl García OF ($3,500 DK, $3,000 FD) vs MIA; Marcell Ozuna OF ($2,900 FD) vs CHC; Gio Urshela 3B ($3,100 DK, $2,400 FD) at BAL; Michael Conforto OF ($2,900 FD) vs BOS; Justin Upton OF ($3,500 DK) at Tex; Clint Frazier OF ($2,700 DK, $2,100 FD) at BAL.
Top Stack: HOU vs SEA (LHP Marco Gonzales)
This is a wide-open slate in terms of offense. We mentioned the Yankees and Padres earlier. Garrett Richards (9.8% K-BB rate, 27.1% CSW 2019-21) has been dreadful to start the year with a -1.2% K-BB rate through his first four starts. Meanwhile, the Mets owned RHP last season with a .353 team wOBA (third) putting them on the board as a stack in tournaments. The White Sox get to face Jose Ureña (8% K-BB rate, 24% CSW 2019-21) who has allowed a .398 wOBA to LHB going back to 2019, a dreadful Tigers pen lurks in relief too. The Braves are also in a potential eruption spot against Trevor Williams (11.1% K-BB rate, 25.4% CSW 2019-21) who hands out home runs with startling aplomb (43 HR over last 220.1 IP). The Angels also get to face a highly suspect Mike Foltynewicz (13.7% K-BB rate, 26% CSW 2019-21) at Texas.
We’ll go with the Astros tonight as they take on the southpaw Marco Gonzales (12.8% K-BB rate, 27.8% CSW). Gonzales has shown some shaky command early on evidenced by a 6.83 xERA and .410 xwOBA. Given that he operates with very little margin for error to begin with (8.6% career swinging K rate) a loss in control against a powerful Astros lineup could end poorly. The righty bats make the most sense in Alex Bregman (.381 career wOBA), José Altuve (.352 wOBA), Carlos Correa (.354 wOBA), and Yuli Gurriel (.338 wOBA). Both Yordan Álvarez (.419 wOBA) and Kyle Tucker (.308 wOBA) both offer excellent upside for tournaments, especially for Tucker whose price has fallen after a slow start.
Honorable Mentions: ATL vs CHC (Williams); NYY at BAL (Zimmermann); SD at ARI (Kelly).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)