Today’s main slate on both sites features 7 games starting at 7:05. There is a 5 game early slate if you’re interested in some daytime baseball, but this will cover the main slate. On the weather front, there’s some light rain in Baltimore and Atlanta. I don’t think it’s anything to worry about, and both are forecasted to clear out, but keep an eye on it in case the forecast changes. Finally, no Coors on the docket, but that doesn’t mean we won’t be picking on Colorado. Let’s dive in.
Top SP: Dustin May, LAD ($9,400 DK, $9,000 FD) vs COL
Speaking of picking on Colorado, here we go! The first thing I checked when I saw Dustin May on the slate is, “how long of a leash did he have in his previous start?” I’m not looking to pay up for May, just to see that we’re getting a solid 4.1 IP. To my delight, in his first start, HC Dave Roberts let May cruise to a full six innings pitched, and he looked good. In fact, May looked excellent in his first start against the Athletics. The sinker was working, inducing a 61% ground ball rate and May doubled his previous career swinging strike rate to 17.6%. Strikeouts are king in DFS, and going against a Rockies team that features four batters with a strikeout rate north of 26% should lock May into my lineup as my SP1.
Honorable Mentions: Lance McCullers, HOU ($9,900 DK, $9,500 FD) vs DET.
Value SP: Charlie Morton, ATL ($7,600 DK, $8,500 FD) vs MIA
The value on a short slate is always tough to find, so let’s hope the rain holds out for Charlie Morton to do his thing for us. If you tried picking on the Marlins yesterday, you got the sharp end of the spear as they got to Max Fried for seven earned runs en route to putting up 14. No disrespect to the Marlins, but those days are going to be very few and far between for the fish. I’m going right back to Morton, who has looked good in his first two starts. The Braves’ righty has faced the Phillies twice and faired well, striking out 12 in 11 innings. Morton will also face four batters with a strikeout rate north of 27% since the start of the 2019 season, plus the added bonus of the pitcher.
Honorable Mention: Zack Wheeler, PHI ($8,400 DK, $9,700 FD) at NYM.
SS Corey Seager, LAD ($5,500 DK, $3,700 FD) vs COL
As I mentioned earlier, I want to pick on Colorado whether they’re in Coors or not. Today the Rockies will roll out Jon Gray, who has actually looked decent to start the year. He’s struck out 12 batters over 11.2 innings pitched and allowed just two earned runs. That includes an outing in which he allowed just one earned run to these same Dodgers. I’m counting on the Dodgers’ bats getting to Gray today, and if they do, they’ll then face a Rockies’ bullpen that has allowed an average of three runs to score per game. Corey Seager has continued his 2020 breakout by mashing the ball in the early going. Seager’s eye-popping 59.4% hard-hit rate places him among the top five hitters in that category and I expect it to continue today.
Honorable Mentions: Freddie Freeman, 1B ($5,400 DK, $4,100 FD) vs MIA; Kyle Seager, 3B ($4,800 DK, $3,500 FD) at BAL.
OF Austin Meadows, TB ($4,800 DK, $3,700 FD) vs TEX
As some of you already know, I like to work backward occasionally. By that, I mean I take a look at bullpens that I want to pick on before looking at the starting pitchers. Today that worked out nicely and I found that I wanted to stack the Rays against the Rangers. The Rangers’ bullpen currently sits towards the bottom of some key stats that we want to target – ERA, strikeout rate, and hard hit rate. On the starter front, the Rangers are rolling out Kohei Arihara. Anytime I see a pitcher that has struck out just two batters over nine innings pitched, I know I want to attack. My dad always said, “put the ball in play and good things will happen.” Austin Meadows looks healthy to start the year, which is the most important thing. He’s getting on base and flashing that power/speed combo that we love to see.
Honorable Mentions: Ronald Acuna, Jr., OF ($6,100 DK, $4,600 FD) vs MIA; Mookie Betts, OF ($5,700 DK, $4,500 FD) vs COL; Yordan Alvarez, OF (4,900 DK, $3,500 FD) vs DET.
Value Batter: OF Taylor Trammell, SEA ($3,200 DK, $2,800 FD) at BAL
There are two “vomit stacks” today that I like a lot. I guess I should just call them value stacks, but they make me want to puke a little and they come from the same game. In this corner, we have the Mariners going up against Matt Harvey. And in the other corner, we have the Orioles going up against Justin Dunn, who walked eight batters his last time out. Lord knows I’m always excited to pick on Harvey and that’s no different today. Youngster, Taylor Trammell has struggled some in the early going, but I’m looking for him to get right against Harvey at a really reasonable price.
Honorable Mentions: DJ Stewart, OF ($2,800 DK, $2,700 FD) vs SEA; Michael Conforto, OF ($3,300 DK, $2,900 FD) vs PHI; Gavin Lux, 2B ($3,900 DK, $2,400 FD) vs COL.
Top Stack: Braves vs MIA (RHP Nick Neidert)
I talked about the Braves on this morning’s PL Shorts Podcast, and I’m just here to confirm what I said – I want to pick on Nick Neidert, who walked five batters over 4.1 innings pitched. The only problem I’m having is the two main pieces, Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman are pretty pricy. The good news is that Marcell Ozuna is reasonably priced, as are Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson. In order to fit them in, you’ll likely have to use one of our vomit stacks, but I love the Braves’ upside today.
Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: LAD vs COL (Gray); TB vs TEX (Arihara); HOU vs DET (Fulmer); SEA at BAL (Harvey); BAL vs SEA (Dunn).
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