Today’s main slate on both sites features 10 games starting at 1:05. There is some weather to keep an eye on in the forecast. Just like yesterday, the Blue Jays/Angels game looks to be quite wet and there’s rain in the forecast all day in New York for the Mets/Marlins. We also have an issue with the pitching tomorrow. By issue, I mean the quality thereof. That is simultaneously good for us in that there will be plenty of pitching to attack and bad in that we have to find two pitchers to roster. Let’s dive in and see if we can sort through the muck.
Top SP: Trevor Williams, CHC ($8,300 DK, $8,000 FD) at PIT
Revenge narrative anyone? Before we get to the revenge, I want to say that if the Mets/Marlins game plays, I really like Marcus Stroman today. His swagger on the mound is super fun for the game.
Alright, where were we? Ah yes, a dish best served cold. Trevor Williams was with the Pirates for the last five years (doesn’t it feel a lot longer???) and looked good in his first start against the Brewers. Now he gets the Pirates sans Ke’Bryan Hayes. Even after their 8-2 victory on Saturday, the Pirates sport the worst run differential in the National League. Williams should have a safe floor on a day where there are no aces.
Value SP: Adrian Morejon, SD ($7,700 DK, $5,900 FD) at TEX
Okay, let’s start this off with a “Secret Time”. Every time I read Adrian Morejon’s name, I always read it “More John” and then I heard it said properly and had the lightbulb go off that I’m an idiot. Morejon is in an excellent spot. A lefty against a Rangers team that is projected to have four batters with over a 27.5% strikeout rate. He’ll also be pitching in the new Globe Life Park, which up to this point has played as a pitchers park. I love Morejon’s price, especially on FanDuel where you can stack whoever you want.
3B Rafael Devers, BOS ($5,400 DK, $2,900 FD) at BAL
Anytime I see a pitcher who’s allowed a 5+ ERA with a 10%+ walk rate for his career (> 200 IP), I always want to attack. That’s what we get today in Jorge López. He’s struggled with his control and homers for his entire career. Rafael Devers started off the year a little chilly but has heated up on this trip to Baltimore mashing homers in each of his last two games while also tallying back-to-back multi-hit games. There’s no way I’m going to be able to get away from Devers at that FanDuel price.
Honorable Mentions: José Ramirez, 3B ($5,800 DK, $4,100 FD) vs DET; José Abreu, 1B ($5,500 DK, $3,900 FD) vs KC.
OF Eddie Rosario, CLE ($4,300 DK, $3,200 FD) at DET
In Cleveland today, the Indians face José Ureña which is definitely a spot that I’m looking to target. In his first appearance this year, Ureña struggled with allowing walks and homers. Looking at previous seasons, he’s allowed a 16% home run rate over his last three years. That makes the Indians a high-priority stack for me and one of the centerpieces of that stack is Eddie Rosario. While Rosario has been a little cold to start the year, facing Ureña and the Tigers’ bullpen should be the right combination to wake that bat up.
Value Batter: 1B/OF Jurickson Profar, SD ($3,200 DK, $2,500 FD) at TEX
Whenever I go through a slate, I always check the prices of the 1-4 hitters for each team. It doesn’t matter the matchup, because even aces allow runs occasionally. Today, the top of the Padres lineup jumped out to me. Trent Grisham ($4,100 DK, $2,500 FD) is leading off and is reasonably priced on both sites, but I like to find someone below $4k on DraftKings to feature in this spot. That moves me to the number two hitter for the Padres in Jurickson Profar. The pricing just simply has not caught up with Profar yet. With the Tatís injury, he’s been bumped up in the lineup and has been raking to start the year, batting .346 while striking out just 6.5% of the time. I don’t love the ballpark for power, but at his price, Profar should be able to hit value pretty easily.
Top Stack: Yankees at TB (RHP Brent Honeywell)
This is a spot that I’m very conflicted on. On one hand, the Yankees are an elite offense and have one of the highest projected run totals on the slate. But, since I’m a “rooter”, I’m excited to see Brent Honeywell on the mound after all the setbacks that the former top prospect faced. Other than the bottom of the lineup, the Yankees are priced accordingly, but on a day in which pitching is scarce, getting up to the top bats should be pretty easy. If I’m doing a full five stack, I’m just going 1-5 in DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres. If you need to save a little money though, I might consider a wrap-around stack featuring Jay Bruce, Gio Urshela, or Clint Frazier.
Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: SD at TEX (Foltynewicz); CLE vs DET (Urena); CHW vs KC (Minor); BOS at BAL (Lopez).
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)