DK – Early slate (5 games) – starts at 12:05 p.m. EDT | Main slate (5 games) – starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT
FD – Early slate (5 games) – starts at 12:05 p.m. EDT | Main slate (6 games) – starts at 6:40 p.m. EDT
The only trouble spot for today is LAA@DET and there will almost certainly be a delay in that game. Monitor forecasts leading up to the game as things can change, but right now that one is looking dicey at best.
We have a lot of baseball to cover today and we start with our old friend Sandy Alcantara, who just cannot seem to put it together for any consistent stretch this season. If you want to play him, by all means, go ahead. But especially against a lineup as dangerous as Tampa Bay’s, I think I’m going to pass for now. On the other side of the matchup, Zach Eflin has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball this season, aside from a weird blip against Kansas City two starts ago, and he has a great matchup against a Marlins offense that has a 71 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Gavin Williams hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in his first five starts in the majors but his best start did come against today’s opponent, the Kansas City Royals. In his 2nd career start on June 27th, Williams fired seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit and one walk, while striking out 6. At home, I like his chances to come closer to that than his other starts have been but keep in mind this will already be his 3rd start against the Royals.
A very intriguing pitching matchup awaits us with Bryce Miller and the Mariners taking on Joe Ryan and the Twins. This is a game where I can see both pitchers accumulating a good amount of fantasy points while also not pitching their best. Both Seattle (28.3%) and Minnesota (30.7%) have been striking out at high rates over the last two weeks and both pitchers are more than capable of running up the Ks. The Twins have been extremely hot at the plate and Seattle has had a short leash with Miller since the All-Star break so that is something to consider. Seattle’s offense has just been middle-of-the-road but Joe Ryan has allowed 12 ERs in his last three starts and a whopping 11 HRs in his last five starts so he may run into some trouble as well.
Freddy Peralta pitched extremely well in his last start against Cincinnati (6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 6 Ks), but he has also been very hit-or-miss this season. The Ks will probably be there, but a bunch of runs might as well. Milwaukee’s offense has been extremely underwhelming lately, and really the entire season, but Ben Lively just isn’t a high-enough option for me to consider on this slate.
At first glance, there seems to be a plethora of good pitching options in the night slate, but looking deeper I’m not so sure. Spencer Strider has been striking out almost everyone, but the batters he doesn’t strike out seem to hit the ball very hard. Brayan Bello got knocked around by lowly Oakland last start and now faces a much tougher challenge in Atlanta. Framber Valdez has given up 9 ERs in his last two starts and faces a tough Rangers lineup and Carlos Rodón looks nothing like the ace the Yankees thought they were signing.
I’m not opposed to taking a chance on José Quintana against the Yankees. He looked solid in his first start against the White Sox and this Yankee offense is a shell of its former self. Marcus Stroman has had a tough July, but I think he can turn it around against a White Sox lineup that has just an 81 wRC+ over the last two weeks.
Lastly, and this is an extreme shot in the dark, but if you want to get crazy with it Hogan Harris could provide you with a ton of value tonight against San Francisco. The Giants have scored a total of 11 runs in their last six games and are triple slashing .184/.276/.314 as a team over the last two weeks. They also feature a lefty-heavy lineup with the 2nd-worst wRC+ in baseball against LHP. Harris was actually very impressive in his last start, allowing just 2 ERs over six innings with six strikeouts against the Astros. The more I type this the more I am selling myself on Harris tonight.
The Rockies and Nationals have scored a total of 27 runs in the first two games of their series and I see that continuing today against Peter Lambert and Jake Irvin. The Nationals have a pair of exciting young players in CJ Abrams and Keibert Ruiz, and Joey Meneses and Jeimer Candelario have actually been holding down the middle of that lineup very well. Ezequiel Tovar, Randal Grichuk, and Ryan McMahon have been outstanding for Colorado of late and Nolan Jones can put one out at any time. Jurickson Profar is also a decent leadoff option and All-Star Game hero Elias Díaz is a nice option at catcher.
For the late slate, the Cubs have been the hottest team in baseball offensively with a 136 wRC+ over the last two weeks and they get to face the human launching pad in Lance Lynn today. Cody Bellinger is an especially intriguing option, but really the whole lineup is in play. Dansby Swanson is coming off a huge two HR game on Tuesday and Christopher Morel and Nico Hoerner also went deep in that one. The outfield trio of Mike Tauchman, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki are also in good spots in the lineup to do damage.
The Astros have been fairly hot over the last two weeks as well, especially the trio of Kyle Tucker (283 wRC+), Chas McCormick (257 wRC+), and Alex Bregman (195 wRC+). They should be able to get pitches to hit against Texas starter Andrew Heaney.
Hitter Pricing 7-26-23