Thursday’s main slate begins at 6:05 ET on FD with the Phillies hosting the Tigers and at 7:07 ET on DK with the Blue Jays concluding their four-game series against the Astros.
Note that the Yankees/White Sox doubleheader isn’t included on DK or FD.
SPs 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious as to its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A very quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Spencer Strider needs no sales pitch. But let’s have some fun. His four-seamer has a 1.62 PLA this year. Among pitchers with at least 1,000 pitches thrown, Joe Ryan’s four-seamer is next with a 2.29 PLA. The Strider fastball has also returned a 21.1% SwStr rate which just seems silly considering he throws it just under 60% of the time.
He leads all qualified starters with a 31.9% K-BB%.
He’ll face the Mets tonight who have a 20% K rate as a team, third-lowest in baseball.
Granted, it’s a little early considering he’s thrown all of 299 pitches this year, but Verlander’s current 20.5% K rate is the lowest he’s posted since 2014. His $8,600 price on DK is interesting considering his track record but I think’s
If you’re looking to save a few dollars from Strider on FD, Zack Wheeler gets to host the Tigers and their .286 team wOBA (tied for lowest). The Nationals got to him in his latest start and his 4.33 ERA isn’t pretty but his 5.40 PLV is very similar to last year.
It almost seems like Alek Manoah and José Berríos have traded places this year. The latter is amidst quite the revival tour which has made me believe that Matt Heckman must be a fortune teller.
Berríos’ PLV has increased this year from 5.03 to 5.21 lending credence to his 3.66 ERA following all the struggles he dealt with a season ago.
Tonight, he’ll face an Astros team that’s been just about average with a .315 wOBA and 101 wRC+. Still, based on their track record it’s probably best to view the matchup as a risky one.
On the other side, Framber Valdez has surged this year with a career-best 21.8% K-BB% thanks in part to an increased usage of his cutter that has returned an impressive 20.9% SwStr rate. He gets a difficult matchup against the Jays, who are sixth in team wOBA. Valdez is especially interesting on DK where he’s $1,400 cheaper than Strider.
The late game features a duel between two southpaws: Reid Detmers and Drew Smyly. The results have been far in favor of Smyly but going by PLV, Detmers has the advantage. He’ll also face a Cubs lineup that’s been a little susceptible as they are tied with the Royals with the sixth-highest K rate in baseball.
Bats
This is a tough slate for bats. Aaron Civale has only made three starts this season, so this year’s numbers don’t tell us much. However, he’s shown reverse splits during his career having allowed a career .327 wOBA to RHB as opposed to .288 to LHB. However, the Red Sox don’t really have many righty bats outside of the crusty veteran Justin Turner. Reverse splits or not, I don’t think you can argue against Rafael Devers versus an average-ish righty like Civale (4.86 PLV / 3.91 PLA last year).
On the other side, the Guardians will face Matt Dermody, who is not only making his season debut but also turning 33 in a month. To his credit, he posted a pretty decent 19.7% K-BB% through 44 innings in Triple-A with the Woo Sox, but also a not-so-great 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP so it’s not hard to imagine the Guardians putting up some runs. Then again, they are also tied with the Tigers for the lowest team wOBA in baseball. Either way, the matchup against an unproven pitcher is there to take advantage of.
If you’re looking for a reason to play Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez other than the fact they are good baseball players, note that Berríos has been a little susceptible to LHB this year with a .355 wOBA allowed compared to just .259 against RHB.
Yesterday’s Phillies’ game was canceled but assuming that the air quality improves enough to play, the Phillies will return with an implied total of just under five runs against left-hander Tyler Holton who will toss a couple of innings before giving way to a Detroit pen that is suspect, to say the least.
Smyly has had a very good season so far with a 3.56 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 12 starts. But he’s also allowed a .328 wOBA to RHB for his career which makes me a little interested in the likes of Taylor Ward who has been getting some results lately after a quiet start and Anthony Rendon.
As mentioned earlier, Verlander’s strikeouts are down a bit so if I’m choosing one brand-name pitcher to pick on in tournaments it’s him especially considering that Atlanta has an implied total of just under five runs. Now watch him toss eight, shutout innings. Michael Harris II finally broke through last night with a big game, maybe it’s chasing but I’m a little interested as it’s hard to find bats with his sort of upside at that salary.