DK/FD – Main slate (13 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Wind blowing out for STL@PIT & PHI@WAS.
Rain possibly affecting 3 games on the slate: TB@BOS, CLE@MIN, & COL@KC.
It’s a big slate with a number of aces to choose from – Zack Wheeler & Shohei Ohtani might get the most ownership, but Logan Webb feels the safest. He’s still pitching predominantly to GB contact for both L/R bats and BAL has to travel cross-country for this one.
Ohtani gets the Astros on the road and Framber Valdez was moved to today to go to match him, so a win isn’t guaranteed. He feels pretty risky for the price. Valdez had 12 Ks vs the Angels 3 weeks ago on the road, which makes him a solid tournament play.
Wheeler gets the Nats, but PHI hasn’t been playing well lately and the wind will be blowing out, so there’s reason to pivot to other plays in GPPs – but Wheeler is fine for cash since Josiah Gray could have issues with their lefty-heavy lineup.
Clayton Kershaw is another interesting play since his last two games haven’t been sharp, and the Yankees will be getting a number of players back from IL that could need some time to return to form (Donaldson, Stanton).
Taking two of the above will be costly, but the slate is big enough that there should be value plays to offset it. If you’re looking for a little more value at SP2, you can try Bailey Ober – he did well enough vs CLE last month.
In order from safe to risky: Webb, Valdez, Wheeler, Ober, Kershaw, Ohtani.
The best spot in terms of hitting conditions is STL@PIT, but they’re two teams that may be hard to trust. One bat you can trust here should be Jack Suwinski, who has 2 multi-HR games in the past week. A value option to pair him with would be Tucupita Marcano, likely to be in the lead-off spot. For STL, Brendan Donovan & Andrew Knizner are probably the safest plays to count on, but Knizner is probably only worth using in a full-game stack.
As mentioned earlier, Josiah Gray could struggle vs PHI’s L-dominant lineup, it’s just a question of how much you want to invest in them. Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber will likely be the more popular options, but Brandon Marsh could be a nice sleeper bat here.
If you’re hunting for value plays, DET@CWS could have a few as Mike Clevinger is expected to return from IL and Reese Olson has been a mixed bag over 10 starts in AAA with a 6.38 ERA. Zach McKinstry isn’t cheap, but he has multiple on-base potential and Akil Baddoo could be batting 2nd after the recent loss of Riley Greene. For the White Sox, it feels a little like dumpster diving to play one or two bats from them, but Andrew Vaughn has been hitting well and Romy González has decent power.
Another option for value bats is KC at home vs Chase Anderson. Michael Massey & Nicky Lopez have been solid plays vs Rs lately, and Salvador Perez may be in play here too as Chase can give up hard hits to Rs.
Luis Severino has had two decent starts since coming off IL, but he has a tendency to be a FB contact pitcher, which could be volatile with the wind blowing out at Dodger Stadium. Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez & Mookie Betts could take advantage of that, as well as Jason Heyward.
Other possible plays:
- The Rockies meet their former teammate Jordan Lyles, and if the weather doesn’t end up being too much of a factor, Charlie Blackmon & Ryan McMahon could be plays as part of an underrated game stack.
- Christian Walker should be a strong option vs Charlie Morton in Chase Field.
- Dean Kremer tends to give up a lot of hits vs the opposition, so an SF stack of LaMonte Wade Jr., Blake Sabol, and Mike Yastrzemski are in play.
- Alex Kirilloff could be in play vs FB pitcher Aaron Civale. The Twins also had a number of injuries yesterday, so if they call Matt Wallner back up, he’s been crushing baseballs back in AAA.