Today’s split Thursday slate starts with a four-game main slate beginning at 1:07 PM EST with the Blue Jays hosting the Brewers and includes the 3:40 EST game between the Rockies and D-Backs.
DK also has a night slate featuring the three games beginning with the Reds and Red Sox at Fenway Park at 7:10 PM EST.
SPs 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious as to its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A very quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Early Slate: Kevin Gausman is the clear option at the top given that he leads the early slate by a considerable margin with his 26.2% K-BB%.
I don’t think we’re back to vintage Joe Musgrove quite yet but just one walk over his last two starts seems like a step in the right direction. And his 5.07 PLV (4.90 PLV last year) is an encouraging sign that he might not be all that different from the guy who has posted a 3.06 ERA / 1.08 WHIP over his previous two seasons (362.1 IP).
He’ll get the advantage of facing a Marlins lineup that doesn’t have much firepower outside of Jorge Soler (21st in team wOBA). The Padres are modest (-120) road favorites today. His salary on both sites ($7,300 DK / $7,500 FD) gives you a lot of flexibility.
I’m not sure what to make of Max Scherzer today. He is coming off a great start at Coors Field. So maybe that should alleviate any concerns. But I’m not sure I’m quite convinced yet mostly because of the decline in his fastball from a 3.15 PLA to 4.15 PLA this season as he’s lost about one mph off his average velocity. Compared to Musgrove, Scherzer draws a more difficult matchup against the Phillies. They actually haven’t been that great this year (17th in wOBA) but I think they end up being better than that so I’m admittedly taking their early season numbers with a grain of salt.
Given that the Brewers are significant road dogs (+165) Freddy Peralta makes for an interesting option that might go a little under-rostered in tournaments, relatively speaking since we are dealing with another tiny Thursday slate. The Giants pulverized him in his last start, but overall his 5.40 PLV compared to 5.01 from a season ago has me encouraged about his outlook the rest of the way. That and his fastball velocity is up nearly two mph, which always helps. The combination of a terrible start his last time out and being on the road against a good Jays lineup (sixth in team wOBA) should mean that Peralta comes in at a low roster % making him a worthwhile dice roll on a really short slate.
Jesús Luzardo ($9,100 DK, $10,000 FD) is in an interesting spot as a slight home underdog that’s significantly more expensive than his counterpart, making him an interesting tournament option. The Padres, meanwhile, haven’t been all that great offensively (tied-22nd team wOBA).
Late Slate: As far as three-game slates go, this is a pretty decent one with some good options. I’d go with Pablo López at the top given his matchup against the Guardians who are at the bottom of the team rankings with a .282 wOBA. On the other side, Guardians rookie Tanner Bibee will have the advantage of facing a Twins lineup that has the highest K rate in baseball at 26.7%.
Note: Keep an eye on this game as there could be some rain in Minnesota.
Next is Framber Valdez. What can you say about him? He’s about as steady as it gets. I’d put him behind López just because the Angels have been a little bit tougher this year (10th in team wOBA). On the other side is Reid Detmers who has a 28.4% K rate this year making him a worthwhile albeit risky gamble as a big road underdog against a dangerous Astros lineup.
The other game features a really fun pitching matchup between Chris Sale and Hunter Greene. The veteran gets the edge between the two given that he’s the home favorite (-170) at Fenway. Still, you know that Greene is more than capable of posting a big score. His fastball has rated extremely well once again with a 5.38 PLV / 2.88 PLA. He gets the tougher matchup against a Sox lineup that’s fifth in team wOBA.
Bats
Early Slate: The hunt for bats should probably begin with the D-Backs given they lead the slate with an implied run total of 5.5 runs. Chase Anderson and his career 4.61 ERA / 1.28 WHIP should lead to a ton of D-Backs stacks it’ll just be the case of being a little different and going with someone near the bottom of the order. One thing to note is that Anderson has shown significant reverse splits for his career in favor of RHB.
On the other side, the Rockies get a good matchup too against Zach Davies and his career 4.32 ERA / 1.32 WHIP. He’s surrendered an even .321 to both RHB and LHB for his career. Unfortunately for the Rockies, they’re still without one of their best power bats in C.J. Cron. Recent call-up Nolan Jones has shown some really good power in the minors and is an affordable option at 1B/OF.
Taijuan Walker is the other clearly vulnerable pitcher on the early slate. Sure, he might not be quite as bad as the 5.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP would indicate, but at the same time, the Mets have an implied total of just under five runs for a reason. Brandon Nimmo is always a good bet when he’s going against a low-tier RHP.
The Blue Jays lead the slate with a total of just over five runs, but as I mentioned earlier, I’m still bullish on Peralta the rest of the way so I don’t think it would be too terribly surprising to see him handle the Jays today. Still, the Jays are the type of offense that could also put up a ton of runs and blow up the slate so it’s that sort of a spot.
As mentioned earlier, Scherzer is looking a little more vulnerable than we’ve been accustomed to this year given the decline on his fastball, so I’m a little interested in the Phillies, specifically the two big lefty bats Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. After disappointing last night against Carlos Carrasco they’ll probably be a little underrepresented, relatively speaking.
Late Slate: This is a really tough slate for bats. In terms of implied totals, the Red Sox and Astros lead the way with totals of just over five runs. But given they’re both against very capable arms in Hunter Greene and Reid Detmers, it’s far from a slam dunk.