Another short Thursday slate. On FanDuel, the action starts at 6:40 ET with the Detroit Tigers hosting the Chicago White Sox. On DraftKings, that game isn’t included as their main slate features just five games beginning with the Yankees hosting the Orioles at 7:05 ET.
Pitching
A quick note on the PLV metric listed above: If you’re curious as to its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A very quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Logan Gilbert gets top billing for tonight’s short slate. Among qualified starting pitchers, Gilbert is fourth with a 25.7% K-BB% behind only Spencer Strider (32.5%), Kevin Gausman (27.6%), and Joe Ryan (26.7%). Last time out, Gilbert piled up nine Ks (36% CSW) against a tough Atlanta lineup on the road. Tonight, he’s at home against Oakland and is the biggest favorite on the board (-250).
If you’re on FanDuel, Lucas Giolito is another option at the top. He’s a solid road favorite against a Tigers offense that has the second-lowest team wOBA at .290. Giolito has bounced back nicely after a rough 2022 and has the 15th-highest PLV among SP with at least 700 pitches.
The 13th-highest PLV among SP with at least 700 pitches belongs to Aaron Nola. Atlanta is third with a .340 team wOBA so that pushes Nola behind Kirby and Giolito based on the matchup. He’s a tournament swerve at the top ($9,700 FD, $9,500 DK).
Clarke Schmidt has a 6.00 ERA and 1.62 WHIP but he also has the sixth-highest PLV among starters with 700 pitches more. He could be an interesting SP2 on DraftKings ($8,100) if you’re feeling frisky. He’ll face the Orioles who have the 10th-highest team wOBA at .329.
I’m obligated to mention JP Sears every time he pitches. He has the third-highest PLV among SP with at least 700 pitches (!!). Despite being a massive road underdog I like him a lot as an SP2. He’s got upside against a Mariners team that has the third-highest team K rate.
Bats
Julio Teheran, now that’s a name we haven’t heard in a long time. If you recall the one start he made two seasons ago, I have a hunch you might be a Tigers fan. Anyway, his career splits are drastic in favor of a .339 wOBA against left-handers. Thairo Estrada has been one of the Giants’ best bats this season. And given Teheran’s splits, I’d also underline the lefties like Michael Conforto, who has been percolating lately, and LaMonte Wade Jr. They’re both affordable on FD and DK.
On the other side, the Giants will be deploying Scott Alexander as an opener.
It sounds like Dylan Dodd will be making his fourth start of the season tonight against the Phillies. His surface numbers aren’t pretty but PLV thinks he has deserved better results pegging the rookie lefty with a 3.45 PLA. Although, it’s a pretty flimsy sample size (242 pitches). Dodd is a prospect of repute but I think if Atlanta had a better option, they’d prefer to let him iron things out a little longer in Triple-A so I like the Phillies’ chances of scoring some runs. Trea Turner has been horrendous but he’s still hitting at the top of the order and he’s cheap on FD ($2,700). The L/L matchup might slightly suppress Bryce Harper’s roster percentage for tournaments.
On FanDuel, the White Sox matchup against Alex Faedo is worth mentioning. He’s been alright in 15.2 innings this year but last year he had a 5.53 ERA and 1.64 WHIP across 53.2 IP. The problem is the White Sox offense has not been any good and is 26th in team wOBA. Luis Robert Jr. could return tonight (hip) but other than him or chasing the power upside of Jake Burger, the options here seem pretty light.
The Yankees have an implied total of just under five runs. They’ll face off against a capable starter in Kyle Gibson who has been a challenging pitcher to predict given a couple of bad starts against the Royals and Tigers. Aaron Judge is always a top spend but other than that I’m not sure if I have a ton of interest in the Yankees. Gibson is just one of those pitchers that always seems to do just enough to take the steam out of a stack. He does have wide splits this year in favor of LHB (.398 wOBA allowed) so maybe Anthony Rizzo or Jake Bauers as a punt if you’re rolling out a bunch of different lineups for tournaments.
On the other side, if you’re picking and choosing from the Orioles, note Schmidt has allowed a .407 wOBA against LHB this year.
Tonight we’ll see the triumphant return of Dartmouth’s finest, The Professor himself, Kyle Hendricks. Last year (84.1 IP), he had some wild splits: a .401 wOBA against LHB and a .271 wOBA against RHB. Given his struggles overall last year and that he’s making his debut, I think you have to have an interest in the likes of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and friends. Given his splits, I’m particularly interested in Brett Baty as a punt.
Bats on both sides of the game at Wrigley Field are interesting because Carlos Carrasco has not looked good at all. Christopher Morel didn’t hit one out last night meaning he’s due tonight, right? However, playing against the hitters in this game is the weather as it looks like it might favor pitching with temps in the 50s and the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field.
The Mariners have an implied team total of just under five runs. That’s nothing to sneeze at but I am a big fan of JP Sears and so is PLV, so I think I’d probably fade a Mariners stack. But I don’t mind Teoscar Hernández’s $2,800 salary on FD as dice roll in tournaments.