Slate Details
DK/FD – Early slate (5 games) – starts 12:35 p.m. EDT / Main slate (8 games) – starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT
Weather Impact
Some light rain is expected to roll in around game time in DET@KC and MIA@COL, but I wouldn’t be too concerned about it for DFS purposes as there is little chance of a PPD.
Pitching
For the early slate on Wednesday, we start in spacious PNC Park with Martín Pérez and the Texas Rangers facing off against a Pirates team that has hit just 9 HRs and scored 54 runs in the month of May. To put that into perspective, the Blue Jays hit 4 HRs and scored 20 runs last night alone.
Outside of a few hiccups against the Angels and A’s this month, Perez has been enjoying a fine season and hasn’t allowed more than 3 ERs outside of those starts. In his last outing, Perez struck out 7 Rockies and held them to 2 ERs over 7 innings of work.
The Pirates’ offense is slightly more dangerous against LHP than RHP, but their putrid performances of late combined with the win equity of Texas means I’ll be getting Perez in my lineups today.
Speaking of the Pirates, Zac Gallen is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, especially since it was against Pittsburgh. He allowed an uncharacteristic 4 walks over 3.2 innings which resulted in 8 runs (5 earned) in a loss.
Fear not as a matchup against a Philadelphia lineup that is performing equally as poorly is in store for Gallen on Wednesday and I think a return to form is in order. Everyone is allowed to have an off day every once in a while.
Michael Kopech had the opposite type of outing in his last start, allowing simply 1 hit with 10 Ks over 8 scoreless innings against Kansas City. I am not completely sold on Kopech after just one immaculate start, but he has been showing signs of progress over the last month and today he faces a Cleveland offense that is last in baseball with a 68 wRC+ over the last month. I say go for it.
Joe Ryan has been one of my favorite pitchers to watch this season and although the Giants have won 7 out of 8, their offense has still been pretty mediocre.
Ryan is the perfect pitcher to stop that streak as he has allowed a total of 5 ERs over his last 5 starts, spanning 31 innings. Could you imagine if the Rays had held onto him instead of trading Ryan for Nelson Cruz at the 2021 deadline?
For the later slate, we start with a pitcher who has had an up-and-down start to his MLB career but is beginning to show signs of promise. Kodai Senga was absolutely electric in his last start with 12 Ks in 6 innings of 1-run ball against the league-leading Rays.
He had every pitch working and it was his 3rd promising start in his last 4. He is still a volatile option in my eyes but if you want to chase those Ks, the Cubs offense has struck out a whopping 27.6% of the time over the last two weeks.
James Paxton has been very impressive over his first two MLB starts since 2021 and although we should be approaching with caution, I think I like him again tonight. He faced two quality lineups in St. Louis and San Diego in his first two starts and tonight he gets another decent one in the Angels.
But the other Los Angeles has a high 26.0 K% over the last two weeks and I am willing to buy cheap on Paxton now in case he continues this run and becomes much pricier going forward.
Finally, how can you not play Bryce Miller against Oakland? Everyone and their mother is going to play him, but that’s okay because this is just too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Maybe play him more in cash games than GPPs, but either way, Miller seems like a pretty good bet to replicate his MLB debut against the A’s, when he went 6 innings and allowed just 2 hits and 1 ER with 10 Ks.
Hitting
For the early slate, Johan Oviedo has shown promise at times this year, including in his last start, but today he faces a scorching hot Rangers lineup.
Marcus Semien and Adolis García are playing like bonafide All-Stars and Nathaniel Lowe has been a steady presence in the middle of the lineup. The real key has been Josh Jung, who has homered in each of the first two games of this series and has shown excellent two-strike hitting ability.
The Astros lineup has finally turned it around over the last couple of weeks, hitting for a 122 wRC+. Adrian Houser was surprisingly good in his last start against Tampa Bay, but I wouldn’t bank on him replicating that performance.
Yordan Alvarez has been scorching hot lately (what else is new?), and being sandwiched between Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker in the lineup never hurts. Don’t sleep on Corey Julks either, who has been a nice revelation for Houston in the early going.
As we venture into the later slate, we are going to roll the dice and go against a pitcher who has been very good so far in 2023. Bryce Elder has been outstanding this season, which has gone a long way toward solidifying the Braves’ rotation.
But now he is facing a Dodgers lineup that put up 8 runs in each of the first two games of the series and Atlanta’s starters in those games were Charlie Morton and Spencer Strider.
Freddie Freeman is one of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment and Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez have been raking as well. Will Smith has established himself as the best hitting catcher in baseball and don’t forget about Max Muncy and his 15 HRs, good for 2nd in baseball.
The Mariners’ offense hasn’t been anything too special in 2023, but they get another poor A’s lefty starter on Wednesday in Ken Waldichuk. Seattle blasted Kyle Muller and the Oakland bullpen for 11 runs on Monday and I expect the same to happen to Waldichuk.
Jarred Kelenic proved he still has incredible power against LHP when he blasted a deep HR against Muller and he has proven the doubters wrong so far in 2023.
Julio Rodríguez will turn it on eventually and I think Eugenio Suárez and Teoscar Hernández will steadily improve on their numbers as well. Ty France is always a tough out for lefties and I see another breakout coming today from Seattle’s offense.
Other bats worth mentioning:
- It looks like it is going to take Ranger Suárez a little while to get back into the swing of things and Arizona could take advantage of that today. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a must-play right now and Christian Walker has great career numbers against Suarez. Gabriel Moreno is also showing some promise as a high-upside catcher option.
- Can’t say I’m too familiar with Karl Kauffman’s game, but an 8.31 ERA in Coors is not a recipe for success. Jorge Soler has some of the best power in the game and all Luis Arraez does is get hits for the Marlins.
- Tyler Wells has been very impressive this season and while he is much better than I originally thought, he has been getting a tad lucky with how many hard-hit balls he allows. In Yankee Stadium, facing a lineup that has a whopping 27 HRs over the last two weeks, I think he could be in for a bit of a letdown. You are familiar with Aaron Judge’s supreme power, but Anthony Rizzo has brought the pop this season and Harrison Bader has been tearing the cover off the ball since returning from the IL.
Hitter Pricing 5-24-23