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There are only a few games today, three starting at 12:35 and three starting at 7:05 for the main slate. Slim pickings!
Pitching
A quick note on the PLV metric listed above: If you’re curious as to its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A too-brief summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
Domingo Germán has been excellent with a 20.5% K-BB% through seven starts, but he gets a matchup against a Rays lineup that boasts a .371 team wOBA, easily the best in baseball. Atlanta is a distant second at .351.
On the other side, Drew Rasmussen leads the main slate with a 2.35 PLA. The only downside is that the Rays sometimes pull him early so if he has a long inning, he might end with a disappointing score.
Alex Cobb gets matched up with a D-Backs team that has the second-lowest K rate in baseball at 19.8% which puts him behind Nathan Eovaldi as the top option in the main slate. The line for the Oakland/Texas game hasn’t been set yet but once it is, you’d figure the Rangers and Eovaldi are the biggest favorites of the nightcap.
The afternoon slate could be unplayable with questionable weather in the Minnesota game and the game in Kansas City. The latter looks like the most questionable of the two but be sure to double-check. Even though Kodai Senga (-200) is the biggest favorite, I’d put Yu Darvish as the top SP in the afternoon slate as he’ll face a Twins team that has struck out a lot (25.5%, third-most). Mike Clevinger is a decent SP 2/Flex play on OwnerBox if the KC game plays. The Royals
Bats
The A’s have yet to announce an official starter for tonight’s game but whoever gets the official nod, we should see plenty of Rangers bats as the top stacks of the night. If you go here in tournaments, I think it’s a case of just trying to be a little different in your stack and maybe going after a hitter in the bottom of the order like Leody Taveras. This is also one of those weird, short slates where taking a batter against your pitcher might work. It’s gross, but sometimes thinking outside of the box can work on these tiny slates.
The Giants have an implied team total of over five runs as they’ll face an unproven lefty starter in Tommy Henry. Recent call-up Casey Schmitt is a potential punt play at third base. He didn’t show much power in the minors with just one home run in 32 games at Triple-A, but he hit one out in his first big league start two games ago.
As mentioned, Germán has pitched really well but, the Rays have also been the best offense in baseball. Considering Germán’s career strikeout rate is a few points lower against lefties, I’d go after the lefties first in Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, and Josh Lowe.
If you’re looking for a contrarian punt in tournaments, consider Jake Bauers on the other side. He’ll at the very least have the platoon advantage against Rasmussen and has already demonstrated some impressive power in the few games that he’s played so far with two home runs and a max EV of 113.5. He also had an absurd .493 ISO in 21 games with Triple-A Scranton.
For the afternoon slate, consider lefty bats against Mike Clevinger. He has a 4.67 PLA against LHB versus a 3.58 PLA against RHB. Nick Pratto swings and misses a lot but he’s got the power that you like for tournaments and is a potential punt play.
Similarly, Brady Singer has graded out significantly worse against lefties, making Gavin Sheets a potential punt play for the White Sox.
The Mets will conclude their three-game set against the Reds. It’s gonna be a bullpen game for Cincinnati so don’t pay too much attention to Derek Law’s numbers as he’ll probably only pitch an inning or so. The Mets lead the afternoon slate with a projected total of about six runs at the GABP, so they should probably be the most popular stack.
The Padres are the other interesting offense. Bailey Ober (2.60 PLA) isn’t a pushover by any means, but he’s still an inexperienced pitcher so don’t forget Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto.