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OwnersBox- Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:04 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (6 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
After a massive Saturday with multiple DFS slates, Mexico City, and PPDs from rain, it’s nice to have a smaller slate for Monday. Let’s get back to basics.
The chalky SP1 will likely be Blake Snell – he’s often popular given his history and perceived value pricing. It’s CIN on the road, which is usually a good matchup to exploit, but Snell does have his flaws. The other thing to note is that both SF & SD are going straight from 7000+ ft altitude back to “normal” on Monday – teams sometimes have a Coors hangover transitioning from the altitude in Denver, so I would be shocked if SD & SF don’t strike out a little more than normal and underperform. Is Luke Weaver good enough to capitalize? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves… but if you’re looking to take down a GPP, Snell isn’t essential. For cash, he’s good enough.
While we’re on the topic of Montezuma’s revenge, SF hits the road for Minute Maid Park – and Mike Yastrzemski could miss this game with a leg injury he suffered on Sunday. Luis Garcia has been really solid in his last two games vs TB & TOR, not giving up any ER and striking out at least seven in each. Hopefully, they keep the roof closed – but for me, Garcia is the safer SP1 with upside on this slate.
Another pitcher that likely ends up chalky is Drew Smyly, given he’s facing the Nats. However, the problem with the Nats is they don’t strike out much – and most of Smyly’s Ks come from lefty-on-lefty matchups (although WAS does trot out 2-3 for these games). As with Snell, probably good enough for cash, but not a great tournament play.
Domingo Germán has the PLV ratings to back him up as a solid option on this slate, but he had a limited game vs CLE back on Apr 10 where he had 1 ER and 0 Ks in 3 innings. He’s been throwing Ks, but also giving up runs, and the Yankees defense isn’t doing their pitchers many favors these days. They’re also missing Aaron Judge, on a 3-game losing streak, and haven’t managed more than 2 runs in each of those games. Those are too many factors acting against him that are out of his control – I think I’m out on any Yankee pitcher that’s not Cole for now.
The top pitcher based on PLV is José Berríos, but going into Fenway Park is by no means safe. The wind is expected to be blowing out, but the cooler temps will likely keep it to smaller XBH rather than a ton of HRs. Logan Allen ended up on the losing side yesterday, but he did get 8 Ks – 4 from notable guys like Rafael Devers & Justin Turner – which is impressive and Berríos could do the same, if not better. He’ll likely give up a couple runs, but on a small slate like this, he’s the type of pivot that could give you a little boost.
Now we reach the ‘not for the faint of heart’ section. There are two ‘risk it for the biscuit’ pitchers that are worth a look on this smaller slate. MacKenzie Gore suffers from bias for being on the Nats, but he has great CSW rates on both sides and is stronger vs righties. The Cubs had issues with lefty Luzardo on Friday, and as long as he can limit the damage from lefty-on-lefty specialist Cody Bellinger, I think Gore can have a good game and maybe steal this one. He’s actually FanDuel’s top-priced pitcher for what it’s worth.
The second – and way off the radar option – is Luke Weaver. He’s only had two starts since coming off IL, and both weren’t great in terms of ERs, but he had 8 Ks in both – against teams like PIT & TEX. Now he gets the Padres fresh off the plane from Mexico City, possibly swinging at piñatas rather than baseballs. Even before the trip to Mexico the Padres’ issues with righties have been documented. It’s risky – it’s not pretty – but it just may be crazy enough to pay off. You can stop laughing now.
As mentioned earlier, Fenway and its favorable XBH environment is the main focus for bats (as if people need a reason to flock to TOR bats). The wind will be blowing out towards the monster and lefties usually are the ones to benefit at Fenway, so we’ll start with Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Matt Chapman is red hot right now and it likely comes down to him or Rafael Devers as the 3B to have on this slate (I’m leaning Chapman). If you’re not playing Berrios at pitcher, I think you want to stick with the lefties with lower K rates – Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, and the value-priced Enmanuel Valdez who has quickly learned that banking shots off the monster is a lefty’s best friend in Fenway.
Taijuan Walker has a weakness for lefties, and the Dodgers are starting to get all their weapons back. Max Muncy feels like the chalk play of the night for good reason. Freddie Freeman & Jason Heyward are great plays too with their almost greater than 50% OBP rates lately. Will Smith hasn’t resumed hitting HRs at the pace he was pre-injury yet, but he’ll likely be mixed in with the trio of lefties and makes a solid complement to complete the stack if you so choose.
Cubs will likely be popular on this slate, even though I feel it’s more because Nats = bad than Gore = bad. Cody Bellinger is a good play all around, as he’s been excellent vs lefties. The chalky stack will likely be a wrap-around stack featuring Yan Gomes, Nelson Velázquez, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson. The GPP play is likely to play Bellinger solo or play Gore as your SP2. I’ll likely be under the field on them overall since they’re as likely to strike out as hit XBH.
Most people don’t want to trust the Guardians right now, and it’s valid… but you have to trust the Yankees even less. The last time the Guardians saw German, they stole 2 bases against him in 3 innings. The Guardians love to steal bases as a team – Steven Kwan & Myles Straw lead the team with 7 each, Andrés Giménez has 6, and José Ramírez & Amed Rosario have 5. Ramírez & Josh Naylor are hitting righties really well lately and could do well in Yankee Stadium with the wind blowing out to left. A tournament stack of Kwan, Ramírez, & Naylor could be a sneaky play on this slate.
If you believe Snell doesn’t bring his A-game back from Mexico City, there are some Reds to consider to crack the chalk – Nick Senzel is about as hot as you can get right now with 10 hits in his last 5 games. Stuart Fairchild also has a couple of doubles recently and is low-priced if he bats 2nd in the order. Tyler Stephenson has a solid 50% hard-hit rate to go along with his over 60% LD hit rate vs lefties. Finally, Luke Maile doesn’t get into the Reds lineup often, but if he does vs a lefty, he’ll likely be cheap and exceed value.
- It’s hard to recommend any Yankees right now, but Cal Quantrill is by no means good either. Anthony Rizzo, you’re our only hope.
- Alex Call is likely batting lead off for the Nats, and if they get to Smyly, it likely starts with him.
- Tony Gonsolin isn’t likely to pitch long in this one, but his PLV rating vs righties is the worst on the slate. J.T. Realmuto has 8 hits in his last 5 games, including a HR vs a righty yesterday.
- I’m not going to heavily endorse Padres or Giants for aforementioned reasons, but Mitch Haniger is back for SF and had 2 HRs in Mexico City, both off righties.
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